Admin wrote:It's not that some were inherently right and others wrong, in my opinion, as all were based on certain turnout models. I am confident that all polled accurately, it's just that some got the turnout demographics right, and others didn't.
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This is pretty much the core of the issue, I agree. But the majority of polling firms had the correct voter turnout models, as evidenced by the aggregation sites like 538 getting it right.
Those that expected a close result or a Romney electoral college landslide (FOX news pundits) assumed that non-white and young turnout would be down from 2008. The majority of public faces who held that position were well within the right-wing media bubble. But they were dead wrong, as non-white populations have and continue to grow in the US faster than the white population, and are continuing to show up to vote in significant numbers. It turned out that the GOP doubling-down on other-izing minorities and immigrants only motivated these groups to show up more. Not to mention the bizarre way they alienated women down the stretch with all those rape comments.
I was surprised that the under-30 turnout was actually higher in 2012 than it had been in 2008, but that too may have to do with faster-growing non-white populations. Young Latinos in particular are highly motivated by things like the Dream Act.
The more interesting part of this is the long-term implications, because the behavior of the GOP the past four years has only pushed them further away from the demographics they need to be reaching out to more than ever. It is only a matter of time before the Latino population of Texas is large enough to put the state in play. And without a reliably red Texas, the Republican party in it's current incarnation will not win a presidency.
Additionally, traditional wedge issues like abortion and gay marriage are fast becoming losing issues for the GOP. Exit polls showed that 59% of the national electorate is pro-choice, including 66% support among Latinos specifically. And support for gay marriage has been growing quickly and steadily for the past 5 years. That of course is an issue that wins resoundingly among young people, which again spells long-term doom for the Republican party position.
If the Republican party doesn't engage in some real and honest self-evaluation soon, they will become a fringe/regional party before long.