SL Tribune

S

socal

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Kinda shocked they didn't just endorse Mitt because of his religon, but then again I don't know how religious the paper leans. Well thought out and reasonable piece (yes, I live in California)

http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/opinion/55019844-82/endorsement-romney-obama-president.html.csp

In considering which candidate to endorse, The Salt Lake Tribune editorial board had hoped that Romney would exhibit the same talents for organization, pragmatic problem-solving and inspired leadership that he displayed here more than a decade ago. Instead, we have watched him morph into a friend of the far right, then tack toward the center with breathtaking aplomb. Through a pair of presidential debates, Romney’s domestic agenda remains bereft of detail and worthy of mistrust.

Therefore, our endorsement must go to the incumbent, a competent leader who, against tough odds, has guided the country through catastrophe and set a course that, while rocky, is pointing toward a brighter day. The president has earned a second term. Romney, in whatever guise, does not deserve a first.
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The Trib leans moderately left. The city's other major daily, the Deseret News, is owned by the LDS church and as might be expected is well right of center.

The fact of the matter, however, is that the Trib's endorsement of Obama means nothing here.

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Admin":2nflz421 said:
The fact of the matter, however, is that the Trib's endorsement of Obama means nothing here.

Sent from my Android phone using Tapatalk 2
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I know and they even mentioned it in the article. From the comments it sounds like this is the first democrat they've supported since at least Ws first term.
 
I can't believe that anyone would shift a vote one way or the other based on a newspaper op-ed. You scowl at them if they don't reflect your political bias and nod your head in agreement if they do.

Are people in SLC threatening to cancel subscriptions/firebomb their office because of the piece?
 
socal":1fqzbeg9 said:
Well thought out and reasonable piece (yes, I live in California)
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+1 Give Romney the Democratic legislature that he had in Massachusetts and he'd probably make a pretty good president.

I'd guess newspaper op-eds mean a lot less than in decades past. In the days of near monopoly big city newspapers and only 3 TV networks there was a more legitimate beef about media bias. Now there's proliferation of media and editorial views span the political spectrum.
 
I'm curious to hear what Tony thinks about Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog on the NY Times. Given the rigorous parsing he puts the poll numbers through (I usually check out after a few paragraphs), it would seem to be the presidential election version of bestsnow.net (or, as some would probably claim, another example of MSM liberal bias).
 
One of my Princeton stat major classmates used to work for Richard Wirthlin's polling company. I may have discussed FiveThirtyEight.com with him last time. It was an independent website then; now part of NY Times.

Harold (my classmate) was very conservative by 1970's standards, or else he would not have been working for Wirthlin. He would probably be considered a RINO now.
 
Harold doesn't think much of Nate Silver. His political background was as an Obama volunteer in the primary season of 2008. He has never actually worked in political polling. He puts poll number results into a computer without adequately analyzing the quality of the data, then accepts average or aggregated results. Thinking you can aggregate national numbers from state polls doesn't work if the state polls weren't done properly.

Competent polling methodology is expensive. Questions have to be designed carefully in both content and sequence to minimize bias. Response rates have declined steadily with unlisted numbers, cell phones, etc. Now we have more early voting as an additional complication. Time and money saving shortcuts can easily introduce bias, particularly with the low response rates. National organizations like Gallup have more resources to try to improve accuracy.

Harold says Nate Silver does not know his political history well, has made numerous false statements about elections before his time. As in the financial arena it helps if your historical perspective extends back 30 years, not just to 2008. Harold worked full time in political polling design and analysis from ~1976-1981.

Today Silver says Romney's probability of winning is 21%. Harold thinks it's at least 50%.
 
The penultimate FiveThirtyEight: he favors Mitt in FL and NC, and Obama in all the other battleground states.

We'll soon find out if he's a purveyor of partisan hackery or unemotional, spin-free analysis. I'll say this -- his writing style and vocabulary mirror Tony's uncannily.
 
jamesdeluxe":agwwcpzy said:
The penultimate FiveThirtyEight: he favors Mitt in FL and NC, and Obama in all the other battleground states.

We'll soon find out if he's a purveyor of partisan hackery or unemotional, spin-free analysis. I'll say this -- his writing style and vocabulary mirror Tony's uncannily.
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Silver uses a statistical model (and a pretty simple one at that) and it seems to work reasonably well - he correctly called 49 states in the last election.
 
And here's the final FiveThirtyEight. To use this tired cliche one last time (and I hope that it will be permanently retired after tonight), Silver is doubling/tripling/quadrupling down -- basically putting his entire reputation, deserved or not, and his dependence on public polls on the line with this call.

He's basically saying that the only possibility for the GOP is a "Dewey Defeats Truman" scenario. We shall see.
 
Tony Crocker":331ji2lh said:
Harold doesn't think much of Nate Silver. His political background was as an Obama volunteer in the primary season of 2008. He has never actually worked in political polling. He puts poll number results into a computer without adequately analyzing the quality of the data, then accepts average or aggregated results. Thinking you can aggregate national numbers from state polls doesn't work if the state polls weren't done properly.

Harold says Nate Silver does not know his political history well, has made numerous false statements about elections before his time. As in the financial arena it helps if your historical perspective extends back 30 years, not just to 2008. Harold worked full time in political polling design and analysis from ~1976-1981. Today Silver says Romney's probability of winning is 21%. Harold thinks it's at least 50%.
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He called 50 out of 50 -- how would you and Harold like your crow prepared?
 
jamesdeluxe":368rcjbh said:
He called 50 out of 50 -- how would you and Harold like your crow prepared?
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Hear hear!

Although, I'll admit I was a bit skeptical when, yesterday, he predicted Florida and Virginia for Obama.
 
rfarren":2fmkggkm said:
jamesdeluxe":2fmkggkm said:
Buzzards are circling:
http://www.dickmorris.com/in-the-last-f ... n-polling/
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I love objective press like this that uses phrases like "We are still likely to win."
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I was blown away when I accidentally ended up on the local philly NBC TV news last night for a few minutes. The "news" anchor said:

"Good news: Obama has been projected as the winner in Pennsylvania."

I thought pretending to be fair and balanced was part of the job description?
 
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