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SL Tribune

PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2012 4:46 pm
by socal
Kinda shocked they didn't just endorse Mitt because of his religon, but then again I don't know how religious the paper leans. Well thought out and reasonable piece (yes, I live in California)

http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/opinion/55019844-82/endorsement-romney-obama-president.html.csp

In considering which candidate to endorse, The Salt Lake Tribune editorial board had hoped that Romney would exhibit the same talents for organization, pragmatic problem-solving and inspired leadership that he displayed here more than a decade ago. Instead, we have watched him morph into a friend of the far right, then tack toward the center with breathtaking aplomb. Through a pair of presidential debates, Romney’s domestic agenda remains bereft of detail and worthy of mistrust.

Therefore, our endorsement must go to the incumbent, a competent leader who, against tough odds, has guided the country through catastrophe and set a course that, while rocky, is pointing toward a brighter day. The president has earned a second term. Romney, in whatever guise, does not deserve a first.

Re: SL Tribune

PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2012 5:22 pm
by Admin
The Trib leans moderately left. The city's other major daily, the Deseret News, is owned by the LDS church and as might be expected is well right of center.

The fact of the matter, however, is that the Trib's endorsement of Obama means nothing here.

Sent from my Android phone using Tapatalk 2

Re: SL Tribune

PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2012 9:14 pm
by socal
Admin wrote:The fact of the matter, however, is that the Trib's endorsement of Obama means nothing here.

Sent from my Android phone using Tapatalk 2


I know and they even mentioned it in the article. From the comments it sounds like this is the first democrat they've supported since at least Ws first term.

Re: SL Tribune

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2012 8:18 am
by jamesdeluxe
I can't believe that anyone would shift a vote one way or the other based on a newspaper op-ed. You scowl at them if they don't reflect your political bias and nod your head in agreement if they do.

Are people in SLC threatening to cancel subscriptions/firebomb their office because of the piece?

Re: SL Tribune

PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2012 4:03 pm
by Tony Crocker
socal wrote:Well thought out and reasonable piece (yes, I live in California)

+1 Give Romney the Democratic legislature that he had in Massachusetts and he'd probably make a pretty good president.

I'd guess newspaper op-eds mean a lot less than in decades past. In the days of near monopoly big city newspapers and only 3 TV networks there was a more legitimate beef about media bias. Now there's proliferation of media and editorial views span the political spectrum.

Re: SL Tribune

PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:13 pm
by jamesdeluxe
I'm curious to hear what Tony thinks about Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog on the NY Times. Given the rigorous parsing he puts the poll numbers through (I usually check out after a few paragraphs), it would seem to be the presidential election version of bestsnow.net (or, as some would probably claim, another example of MSM liberal bias).

Re: SL Tribune

PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 2:01 pm
by Tony Crocker
One of my Princeton stat major classmates used to work for Richard Wirthlin's polling company. I may have discussed FiveThirtyEight.com with him last time. It was an independent website then; now part of NY Times.

Harold (my classmate) was very conservative by 1970's standards, or else he would not have been working for Wirthlin. He would probably be considered a RINO now.

Re: SL Tribune

PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 8:27 am
by Marc_C

Re: SL Tribune

PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 6:00 pm
by Tony Crocker
Harold doesn't think much of Nate Silver. His political background was as an Obama volunteer in the primary season of 2008. He has never actually worked in political polling. He puts poll number results into a computer without adequately analyzing the quality of the data, then accepts average or aggregated results. Thinking you can aggregate national numbers from state polls doesn't work if the state polls weren't done properly.

Competent polling methodology is expensive. Questions have to be designed carefully in both content and sequence to minimize bias. Response rates have declined steadily with unlisted numbers, cell phones, etc. Now we have more early voting as an additional complication. Time and money saving shortcuts can easily introduce bias, particularly with the low response rates. National organizations like Gallup have more resources to try to improve accuracy.

Harold says Nate Silver does not know his political history well, has made numerous false statements about elections before his time. As in the financial arena it helps if your historical perspective extends back 30 years, not just to 2008. Harold worked full time in political polling design and analysis from ~1976-1981.

Today Silver says Romney's probability of winning is 21%. Harold thinks it's at least 50%.

Re: SL Tribune

PostPosted: Fri Nov 02, 2012 10:42 pm
by rfarren
This was just published about Nate Silver:
http://www.wired.com/opinion/2012/11/wh ... democracy/

Re: SL Tribune

PostPosted: Sat Nov 03, 2012 8:48 am
by jamesdeluxe

Re: SL Tribune

PostPosted: Sat Nov 03, 2012 11:12 am
by rfarren
jamesdeluxe wrote:Buzzards are circling:
http://www.dickmorris.com/in-the-last-f ... n-polling/


I love objective press like this that uses phrases like "We are still likely to win."

Re: SL Tribune

PostPosted: Sat Nov 03, 2012 11:18 am
by Marc_C
rfarren wrote:
jamesdeluxe wrote:Buzzards are circling:
http://www.dickmorris.com/in-the-last-f ... n-polling/


I love objective press like this that uses phrases like "We are still likely to win."

Wait, you're calling a piece by a partisan hack on his own biased web site the "objective press"?

Re: SL Tribune

PostPosted: Sat Nov 03, 2012 1:21 pm
by rfarren
I was being sarcastic.

Re: SL Tribune

PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 10:36 am
by jamesdeluxe
The penultimate FiveThirtyEight: he favors Mitt in FL and NC, and Obama in all the other battleground states.

We'll soon find out if he's a purveyor of partisan hackery or unemotional, spin-free analysis. I'll say this -- his writing style and vocabulary mirror Tony's uncannily.