by Tony Crocker » Thu Oct 22, 2015 1:54 pm
Mammoth Snowman (Steve Taylor) says Joel is using SNOTEL sites within a 50(!) mile radius for Mammoth. I don't know how he can tell that but I can tell that the percents of average over the past 5 years are not the same as from the long term Mammoth patrol site.
I also know that for the entire region of upper New England Joel shows above average snowfall in 2014-15 while for most ski areas snowfall was slightly below average. The Eastern ski season was considered good due to a near absence of rain or thaw for nearly 3 months, which is extremely unusual. The above average snowfall was only along the coastal urban corridor, most famously Boston.
SNOTELs may be an OK source in Colorado but they most certainly are not when water content is variable and especially if there is rain/snow mix. I've spot checked a handful of other western areas besides Mammoth and found lots of small divergences and a few big ones. The other potential issue besides the source of data is how far back does it go. Since Joel back tested his model to the late 1970's, that's not coincidentally about how far back SNOTEL info is readily accessible online. I'm also guessing that for actual to average comparisons Joel wants the SNOTELs for automated data collection.
Using the actual snowfall from the ski areas is a labor intensive process, and that's why I do it only twice a month.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12