Scott's ski season long-range weather outlook
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It takes a certain amount of guts to make these predictions. I will post actuals to compare at the end of the season, in the format of http://bestsnow.net/seas05.htm .
I will also ask Larry Schick in Seattle for his comments, and anticipate a few here based upon his past comments. Larry believes that El Nino/La Nina is the only factor that makes long term (more than about 2 weeks out) winter snowfall predictions meaningful. You hear about other factors, particularly NAO in the East, but NAO is not itself predictable long term as Scott points out.
Larry recommends the following table http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wo ... table.html as the most comprehensive measure of El Nino (positive values) and La Nina (negatives). Unfortunately it gets posted with about a 2 month lag. Note that June/July mild positive values were similar in 2004 and 2005. From there 2004 trended up a little, but not to the levels that have proved predictive for El Nino in other past seasons. 2005 dropped in August/September and could well be zero by now as Scott also notes.
The point Larry reminds me a lot is that El Nino/La Nina values have to be fairly strong to be predictive. Here's a good example of 2 MEI sets from OCT/NOV through FEB/MAR:
-.710 -.611 -.511 -.625 -.532
.826 .679 .298 .742 .935
Look like mirror images? The second one is 2004-05 with its huge snows south and the devasting Tropical Punch in the Northwest and B.C. The first one is 2000-01, which was another season that favored the southern areas. The 2001 drought in interior B.C. was even worse than last year, and of course I still recall fondly the 7 feet of snow in 54 hours at SoCal's Mt. Baldy in February 2001. MEI values become predictive as they get into the +-1.0 range.
I therefore commend Scott for not predicting anybody above 120% or below 70%. Most areas have standard deviations of +-20-25% of normal.
I will also ask Larry Schick in Seattle for his comments, and anticipate a few here based upon his past comments. Larry believes that El Nino/La Nina is the only factor that makes long term (more than about 2 weeks out) winter snowfall predictions meaningful. You hear about other factors, particularly NAO in the East, but NAO is not itself predictable long term as Scott points out.
Larry recommends the following table http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wo ... table.html as the most comprehensive measure of El Nino (positive values) and La Nina (negatives). Unfortunately it gets posted with about a 2 month lag. Note that June/July mild positive values were similar in 2004 and 2005. From there 2004 trended up a little, but not to the levels that have proved predictive for El Nino in other past seasons. 2005 dropped in August/September and could well be zero by now as Scott also notes.
The point Larry reminds me a lot is that El Nino/La Nina values have to be fairly strong to be predictive. Here's a good example of 2 MEI sets from OCT/NOV through FEB/MAR:
-.710 -.611 -.511 -.625 -.532
.826 .679 .298 .742 .935
Look like mirror images? The second one is 2004-05 with its huge snows south and the devasting Tropical Punch in the Northwest and B.C. The first one is 2000-01, which was another season that favored the southern areas. The 2001 drought in interior B.C. was even worse than last year, and of course I still recall fondly the 7 feet of snow in 54 hours at SoCal's Mt. Baldy in February 2001. MEI values become predictive as they get into the +-1.0 range.
I therefore commend Scott for not predicting anybody above 120% or below 70%. Most areas have standard deviations of +-20-25% of normal.
Thanks for posting the long range forecast, as it helps in planning out the season. February looks like it could be a problem in the east as the freeze and thaw cycle has a devastating impact on the snow pack and the un groomed terrain. The biggest problem we face in the east is lack of elevation causing the 4000? mountains to thaw out every time a mild spell rolls in and then freeze over a few days later as cold air returns.
Looks like we will have to wait and see.
Looks like we will have to wait and see.