Luck

riverc0il

New member
Great post today from Lou on WildSnow.com:
http://www.wildsnow.com/?p=850

All too often I hear or read, in response to a Trip Report or something, about how "lucky" someone is or jealousy about great conditions or good timing. But often that so called "luck" is rather the result of knowledge, calculation, dedication, and perhaps even obsession. While there is some what of an unknown factor to all objectives, those that set themselves up for success more often than not experience positive and desired results.

I often referred to last season as the "season of the opportunist" in New England. But that is really the case of almost every winter here in New England. Luck has so little to do with experiencing epic conditions except when you book a vacation or ski day in advanced. Even then, the dedicated researched can best identify the typical days of generally good conditions.

Placing yourself into a situation, habit, understanding, etc. that develops advanced knowledge of certain areas, snow patters, weather patterns, and gut feelings is premeditated and desire driven action rather than luck.

Though I take issue with always being positive as being a function of good experience. I attempt to always be realistic rather than positive. I appreciate good fortune that much more when I do roll the dice by not getting my hopes up. Though even the most realistic of skiers would be concealing the truth to not admit to thinking about hitting the jackpot when making plans. Tempered with a solid dose of reality and changing expectations and desires is a good thing though let downs are a lot easier to take the more you hit the jackpot.

I don't feel lucky to have experienced two killer seasons in a row when the average skier had a poor season. I feel like I earned my keep by staying on top of things and making solid plans and decisions and, as mentioned in the Wild Snow article, being extremely flexible and making sweeping plan changes on the fly and even preparing those changes as standard planning.
 
I would also agree with the sentiments of the article.

With regard to flexibility, I have often stated that given the erratic weather/conditions on a nearly day-to-day basis, flexibility is essential for success in eastern skiing, and that Riverc0il's experience this season is Exhibit A.

River has also demonstrated the other aspects of "luck" in terms of preparation (fitness and choice of area on each particular day), adaptation, and "getting after it when it's good."

Some of the comments in response to the article point out that all of this is a lot easier if you're Chris Davenport and ski for a living. River has it easier than many of us in terms of fewer family obligations and a location that is the absolute best in the East and competitive with some in the West.

There are other ways to make this work. Admin has a location so perfect that his schedule doesn't need to be that flexible.

The thrust of my snow/conditions analysis has been to improve the odds for us peons that must book ahead and fly somewhere for some or most of our skiing. This analysis is mainly effective in avoiding bad conditions (i.e. Crested Butte or Taos in January, Jackson Hole in March) rather than guaranteeing great conditions. I'm very upfront in admitting that if your definition of great is fresh powder, you can't raise the odds of it above 30-40% for advanced-booked resort skiing. Thus my decision a decade ago to start paying for the 80-90% odds of snowcat and heliskiing for a few days each season.

The preparation and adaptation parts of "luck" apply even to destination resort skiers. If you don't see much powder at home, you're not going to magically become a rock star when you fly off to some resort. Buy some fat skis and try to "keep after it" when you get the chance. The fat skis will keep you out there longer and speed up the learning curve. Powder skiing was inconsistent and hit-or-miss for me until I bought the Chubbs for 1996-97 even though I had been an avid skier since 1979.

And if conditions on your destination trip are disappointing, don't just sit there; try to find a way to adapt. When we encountered the unskiable glue at Jackson in late March 1986, we packed up, drove to SLC and had 4 decent days of spring skiing at Alta/Snowbird. If you've in Utah, Tahoe or I-70 Colorado you have lots of choices within short driving distance. If the resort where you're based has terrain closures, mediocre conditions or excessive crowds, talk to some locals and figure out where it might be better. This is one reason I so often advocate having a rental car.
 
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