Weather

Topics of a general nature regarding snowsports, which don't easily fit into one of our other Liftlines categories. This is also the place to post Letters to the Editor.

Weather

Postby Chris Smorul » Sun Oct 06, 2002 2:58 pm

This is really getting scary now. Its October and I am wearing shorts and t-shirts, and riding rollercoasters. If I remember correctly (a big "if", knowing the fondness that I had in my youth for illicit drugs ), this is how the season started out last year. Is there or does anyone know of a web site that gives long range forecasts(3 months at least) for the Eastern United States. If so, please post it here.
Chris Smorul
 
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Joined: Fri Jul 27, 2007 7:53 pm

Weather

Postby Tony Crocker » Mon Oct 07, 2002 4:32 pm

Sorry to disillusion everyone, but weather predictions more than about 2 weeks out are basically worthless. This opinion is shared by Larry Schick, a Seattle meteorologist with whom I have had nearly 5 years of e-mail correspondence. <BR> <BR>The exception is El Nino/La Nina, and even here the influence depends on the strength of the event, what region you are talking about, and timing will not be precise. <BR> <BR>The strong 1997-98 El Nino event was massively hyped here in Southern California, which is probably the most strongly influenced El Nino region in North America. We did have a huge snow year here, but not before February. <BR> <BR>The current El Nino is rated mild-to-moderate in strength, and there is no statistical evidence that El Nino affects eastern snowfall. <BR> <BR>I saved last October's season forecast from the Skiing Weatherman website. In retrospect it was truly hilarious, and I can e-mail it or post it here if anyone is interested.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
User avatar
Tony Crocker
 
Posts: 9821
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:37 am
Location: Avatar: Charlotte Bay, Antarctica 2011
Location: Glendale, California

Weather

Postby Chris Smorul » Mon Oct 07, 2002 8:19 pm

Thanks Tony, yes I would be interested in seeing that if you post it here. Basically, I was just hoping for something to keep my spirits high during the next few months of anticipation.
Chris Smorul
 
Posts: 24
Joined: Fri Jul 27, 2007 7:53 pm

Weather

Postby Tony Crocker » Fri Oct 11, 2002 3:02 pm

Here are last fall's Skiing Weatherman predictions for 2001-02. Below each regional prediction I have added a section labeled "ACTUAL" to compare the actual 2001-02 ski season to the prediction. <BR> <BR>Winter Weather Preview <BR> <BR>10/24/01 <BR> <BR> <BR>Here's how I break down the regions for this winter: <BR> <BR>New York, New England, and Quebec---fast start, above normal snowfall, especially in Catskills, Berkshires, and the cities in the Rte. 95 corridor. Colder than normal, especially in far northern areas. <BR>ACTUAL: much warmer than normal, particularly early. Overall below average in N. Vermont snowbelt, dismal everywhere else in Northeast. <BR> <BR>Mid Atlantic and Southeast---Looks like a banner year. Below normal cold to the north will suppress storm track to the south; great for these regions. Should get off the mark fast here, too. <BR>ACTUAL: much warmer than normal, particularly early. A poor season overall, as these regions are snowmaking/temperature dependent. <BR> <BR>Great Lakes---Water temps cooler than this time a year ago, so lake effect not likely to be as dramatic early on. Make no mistake, though, lakes will be productive through Christmas. Natural snow slightly above normal overall, with great snowmaking temps plentiful. <BR>ACTUAL: Warmer than normal, particularly early. Did produce some dramatic lake effect, like Buffalo at Christmas. <BR> <BR>Northern Rockies, Northwest---weak La Nina early on should help with early season snow;if El Nino comes on late, snows will shift to the south. Temps near normal. <BR>ACTUAL: A strong season. The early season was very good, but so was March. <BR> <BR>Central Rockies, central Sierras---looks like a relatively quiet winter, with normal snowfall and temps;pattern not real conducive to numerous big dumps. <BR>ACTUAL: Snowfall was heavily concentrated (both Sierra and Utah) in massive dumps during late November/December, and then again in March. January and February were unusually dry. <BR> <BR>Southern Rockies, southern Sierras---a little milder than normal early on, but look for snowfall to pick up dramatically after the first of the year, as weak El Nino takes shape. By end of season, look for above normal snowfall. <BR>ACTUAL: The early season could indeed be defined as a little milder than normal, but the second half of the season (February onwards) was a record drought. By May the Southwest was going up in flames, much like these predictions.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
User avatar
Tony Crocker
 
Posts: 9821
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:37 am
Location: Avatar: Charlotte Bay, Antarctica 2011
Location: Glendale, California


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