Down 5.5% from 2007-08's record year, but up modestly over the 10-year average:
http://www.firsttracksonline.com/News/2 ... n-2008-09/
http://www.firsttracksonline.com/News/2 ... n-2008-09/
Skier visits down 5.5% overall
- Thread starter Admin
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I made this call last Oct. 2. 
The overall season was modestly above average snow-wise. Maybe a little better than that because the one region way below average was western Canada, which Kottke/NSAA don't count. We have already heard much anecdotal evidence about how skiers are continuing to ski but arranging to do it more cheaply. One sign of economics in the Kottke data would be if destination resorts are down more with the slack being made up by those within drive distance. One of the destination resort operators I called for snow stats this month is making that claim. This would be particularly true as an economic indicator in Utah and Colorado, which were the strongest regions snow-wise this season.
The overall season was modestly above average snow-wise. Maybe a little better than that because the one region way below average was western Canada, which Kottke/NSAA don't count. We have already heard much anecdotal evidence about how skiers are continuing to ski but arranging to do it more cheaply. One sign of economics in the Kottke data would be if destination resorts are down more with the slack being made up by those within drive distance. One of the destination resort operators I called for snow stats this month is making that claim. This would be particularly true as an economic indicator in Utah and Colorado, which were the strongest regions snow-wise this season.
CO+UT must be ~80% of Rocky Mountain region totals. I suspect the Northeast numbers (drive-up) will be strong.
Rocky Mountain snowfall was down 14.2% vs. last year, which was huge. It was still above average.
By region:
PNW: 125% last year, probably averages 100% this year, but that ranges from 120% in Oregon to average Washington to 85% Whistler. Slower start in latter 2 sectors likely cut skier visits significantly.
California: 92% last year, 100% Tahoe and 135% Mammoth this year. But Christmas at Tahoe was worse this year, likely cutting visits.
Interior Western Canada: 110% last year, 85-90% this year, I'm sure visits are down.
US Northern Rockies: 134% last year, 110-120% this year. Visits likely down also due to areas being remote destinations. With regard to a slow start, these areas were in the 80% range on Dec. 22 but up to 115% by Dec. 31.
Utah: 120% last year, 130-140% this year. But the excess was all in March/April, so I wouldn't expect much difference in skier visits.
South & West Colorado: 141% last year, 115-125% this year. Visits likely down also due to areas being remote destinations. Much better start than Northern Rockies, 130-150% on Dec. 22.
North & Central Colorado: 111% last year, 110-120% this year. This is the biggest volume region of typically 8+ million visits. Seasons were similar and I suspect skier visits also.
Northeast: 114% last year, in 110% range this year. Since the front end was good this year and business is drive-up, I suspect numbers aren't down much.
For an entire region to average 120+% of normal snow, that signifies an excellent year, top 15% in a more consistent region, top 25% in the most volatile regions (California and South & West Colorado). 2007-08 was as good as any season of the past 34 years in the US Northern Rockies and South & West Colorado. This year was among the top 3 of that time frame for Utah.
By region:
PNW: 125% last year, probably averages 100% this year, but that ranges from 120% in Oregon to average Washington to 85% Whistler. Slower start in latter 2 sectors likely cut skier visits significantly.
California: 92% last year, 100% Tahoe and 135% Mammoth this year. But Christmas at Tahoe was worse this year, likely cutting visits.
Interior Western Canada: 110% last year, 85-90% this year, I'm sure visits are down.
US Northern Rockies: 134% last year, 110-120% this year. Visits likely down also due to areas being remote destinations. With regard to a slow start, these areas were in the 80% range on Dec. 22 but up to 115% by Dec. 31.
Utah: 120% last year, 130-140% this year. But the excess was all in March/April, so I wouldn't expect much difference in skier visits.
South & West Colorado: 141% last year, 115-125% this year. Visits likely down also due to areas being remote destinations. Much better start than Northern Rockies, 130-150% on Dec. 22.
North & Central Colorado: 111% last year, 110-120% this year. This is the biggest volume region of typically 8+ million visits. Seasons were similar and I suspect skier visits also.
Northeast: 114% last year, in 110% range this year. Since the front end was good this year and business is drive-up, I suspect numbers aren't down much.
For an entire region to average 120+% of normal snow, that signifies an excellent year, top 15% in a more consistent region, top 25% in the most volatile regions (California and South & West Colorado). 2007-08 was as good as any season of the past 34 years in the US Northern Rockies and South & West Colorado. This year was among the top 3 of that time frame for Utah.
Regional breakdown of the 5.5% decline in skier visits:
Southeast up 2%
Northeast down 2%
Pac West, Rockies and Midwest down 7-8%
I ascribe the overall 5.5% decline to snow. Another shift of 2-3% from the destination resorts to closer places, presumably due to the economy. Very modest economic impact on skier visits, as I predicted last fall. Decline in spending is another story. There was a recent press release from SIA saying that equipment/clothing sales fell 12% this season, with most of that starting February or so.
Southeast up 2%
Northeast down 2%
Pac West, Rockies and Midwest down 7-8%
I ascribe the overall 5.5% decline to snow. Another shift of 2-3% from the destination resorts to closer places, presumably due to the economy. Very modest economic impact on skier visits, as I predicted last fall. Decline in spending is another story. There was a recent press release from SIA saying that equipment/clothing sales fell 12% this season, with most of that starting February or so.
Bushwacker1951
New member
Even before the winter got going it was pretty obvious the destinations resorts in the Rockies were in for a tough year due to the economy.Bookings were way down. I think this cartoon in the Jackson Hole paper last December says it all. I think the snow conditions had something to do with the decline, hardly any new snow in the latter half of March and much of April for the northeast but the poor economy was the bigger reason.
People in the east didn't want to spend the money or the hassle to fly out west so they instead chose to stay closer to home and drive to their fav destination resort in northern NE and the small ski hills near the urban centers, especially those with night skiing were even bigger benefactors.
People in the east didn't want to spend the money or the hassle to fly out west so they instead chose to stay closer to home and drive to their fav destination resort in northern NE and the small ski hills near the urban centers, especially those with night skiing were even bigger benefactors.
jamesdeluxe
Administrator
#-o
http://www.firsttracksonline.com/News/2 ... f-in-2009/
Could someone cut through the EBITDA references/stats and give me the takeaway? I'm especially interested in how the cheap season passes affect earnings.
http://www.firsttracksonline.com/News/2 ... f-in-2009/
Could someone cut through the EBITDA references/stats and give me the takeaway? I'm especially interested in how the cheap season passes affect earnings.
I think these paragraphs answer many of james' questions and put a lot of specifics into which aspects of the ski industry are affected by the economy.
I cross checked some of the ticket revenue numbers above and they are all internally consistent.
I cross checked some of the ticket revenue numbers above and they are all internally consistent.
jamesdeluxe
Administrator
I'm sure it fluctuates from ski area to ski area , but I was always curious what percentage of overall resort revenues are actually comprised of lift tickets... and is it more effective to low-ball daily tickets and/or season passes so that people (theoretically) spend more on F&B and lessons?
Geoff
New member
jamesdeluxe":12wry8bf said:
I suspect that resorts that drop ticket prices simply end up with more people who value shop. Those people brown bag their food. Those people aren't likely to take lessons.
The Colorado season pass prices are structured so people doing a week trip will spend pretty much the same whether they buy day tickets or buy the season pass product.