Destination Trips: Planned and Executed

It's September, time for us destination dolts to start drawing up plans for 2009-10... dreaming about places we've never skied before or want to revisit. It's always interesting to see which trips you've got in mind for the upcoming winter actually materialize, which morph into something else, and which get canceled outright -- be it for bad conditions, logistical, conjugal, or money issues, or an injury.

So here's the contest: by the end of September, name three realistic destination trips that are on your front burner for this season and let's see how many of them work out as originally envisioned. And to define terms, by "destination," I mean a ski trip that requires a flight or a minimum four-hour drive from your home base (i.e. not a day trip). And you have to stay at least three nights there.

Admin (a tireless destination road warrior back in the day) will judge contestants' itineraries and award the person executing the highest percentage of their three planned trips with a valuable prize to be determined at a later date. Right, Admin?

Does it count if it's not skiing?
Red Rocks, NV, second week of November. Staying in a condo via a traded time-share week.
Hoping we don't get our asses kicked too hard.
http://www.redrocksguidebook.com/red-rock-guide-excerpts.html

That can be arranged.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

Actually, my usual :dead horse: advice of committing as late as possible to see who has snow applies even more for 2009-10. The economy is going to slow down advance bookings for lodging and airlines. Time will be on the consumer's side this season, so let's try to take advantage.

I'm probably going to leave the week in B.C. after my Chatter Creek time wide open. I'll decide very late where to go, constrained only by which airport I fly into. I expect to have decent chance of sampling a day or two more of cat or heli on very short notice as I did with Eagle Pass Heli last year.

In March I'll have 10 days between the Iron Blosam week and the NASJA annual in Sun Valley. Those days will also be left wide open for last minute calls among Wyoming, Montana and Idaho areas (the latter being likely NASJA freebies). And I can also stay longer in Utah if it's dumping there but not farther north.

I also find the premise of james' question bringing up one of my pet peeves: people saying there are going on some ski trip and then bailing out. This is another advantage of waiting late to decide. If you are making the call 4-6 weeks ahead it's more likely to be serious, and less time for some external factor to intervene and cancel the plan.

usually i book my Christmas week Vermont trip around now..This year I am waiting till second week of December before I even think about booking..

Red Rocks is a must hit place for me in the future.. I'd love to climb Cat in the Hat...

Tony Crocker":2odh76qn said:

Actually, my usual :dead horse: advice of committing as late as possible to see who has snow applies even more for 2009-10. The economy is going to slow down advance bookings for lodging and airlines. Time will be on the consumer's side this season, so let's try to take advantage.

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I'm not saying that you have to commit (buy plane tix, hotel reservations) by the end of September, just that you announce the intention by then and make it happen by the end of the season.

Should there be a tie in the number of executed trips, points can be awarded to the person who -- either by making plans as late as possible or through sheer luck -- scored the best conditions. If you recall, for two of my destination trips last season (Lake Placid and northern New Mexico: regions that are the ski-vacation version of Russian Roulette), I ignored conventional wisdom by booking months in advance and still got plenty of fresh snow. You never know...

In typical violation of Tony's rules :wink:, the annual boys trip has selected a destination (Powder Mtn, Utah) but not timing as yet (though timing will be in a narrow window of a couple weeks from late Jan to mid feb). Of course that's due to the logistics of the huge # of locations every one comes in from. Since I'll have a newborn mid-winter, that's the only 'destination' trip that I might end up taking (definition of destination per James rules).

Tony, I know your data says no correlation to Central Colo Mtns for El Nino, but I recently have heard others say that while total snowfall is similar in El Nino years, that it's made up of fewer, but bigger storms than usual for Central Colo... Not sure how detailed your data is that it would back up that claim (I've never paid THAT close of attention to such patterns while living out here). If so, then it might be worth taking a few sick days for big powder vs not often that worth it for all the little dumps we usually get.

December/Early January: Colorado, Vail.
March: SLC, Alta.

My friend has a condo at Vail, so thats a big part of the cost. I also got an offer to go to Whistler from 26th of December till 3rd of January, and thats all expenses paid too. Whistler is just so far though, and I think Vail would be better for my girlfriend.

Tony Crocker":1m8frbjf said:

I also find the premise of james' question bringing up one of my pet peeves: people saying there are going on some ski trip and then bailing out. This is another advantage of waiting late to decide. If you are making the call 4-6 weeks ahead it's more likely to be serious, and less time for some external factor to intervene and cancel the plan.

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I agree, and my record on last-minute trips underscores that... however, the premise can also be interpreted as "I've talked about going to Destination X for years, and I'm going to do it this season no matter what."

All of the quoted destinations/timing in the above 2 posts are strong favorites for reasonable conditions. Perhaps I will meet rfarren while at the Iron Blosam March 6-13 (or later if I linger in Utah).

while total snowfall is similar in El Nino years, that it's made up of fewer, but bigger storms than usual for Central Colo

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It would be very unlikely that enough data could be produced to back up a claim like that. There is enough dispute on how to even define the question, "What is El Nino's impact on snowfall."

I've :dead horse: fairly thoroughly already (and won a Harold Hirsch Award for some it this spring :mrgreen
http://webpages.charter.net/tcrocker818/El_Nino.htm
http://webpages.charter.net/tcrocker818/La_Nina.htm
http://webpages.charter.net/tcrocker818 ... _areas.htm

I've done monthly and seasonal correlations. The monthly ones might capture some of the effect ESMC mentions, but in general the monthly correlations are quite weak. What we would say now is something like "Over the course of an entire season with El Nino at its current reading, we can expect snowfall to be above average in much of the SW US and below average in Washington State and most of the Northern Rockies of both US and Canada." The expected "above/below average" is something on the order of 15%. The more common way to analyze is to draw a line somewhere and say, "All of the seasons with total MEI > X are El Nino, and let's look at who got how much snow in those seasons." The "Snowfall Variation and El Nino Strength" graphs in the above 3 articles lists the past 43 years in order of MEI season total, so you can see how much "noise" and random variation is in weather stats, even for the areas supposedly most strongly affected by El Nino/La Nina. The best you can really say is that the most favored areas probably won't be below average and the least favored probably won't be above average.

If so, then it might be worth taking a few sick days for big powder

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Which is what you should be doing anyway based upon actual results or very short term weather forecasts, regardless of an underlying El Nino or La Nina condition.

this game would never work for me. i booked my utah flight this year just 8 days out and cancelled my south america trip (which i was supposed to be coming back from tomorrow) due to hurricane bill and other pulses forming saving me the 2 grand to go skiing for a week so i could surf great waves for free 15 minutes from the house. this season approaching is still much farther away than the season that i ended just 7 weeks ago. summer is here now to enjoy!

rog

I throw my fair share of at some of icelantic's musings, but his emphasis on flexibility is something to which all skiers should aspire. I hope that was frequent flyer airfore to SA that he bailed on.

icelanticskier":3vqindmv said:

this game would never work for me. i booked my utah flight this year just 8 days out

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And I booked my recent Utah trip 18 hours out and have canceled piles of destination trips at the last minute; who cares? To me, the game isn't to see who can lock him/herself into an itinerary as far out as possible, but to see if people can achieve a goal with the most successful outcome (good conditions). And if that's impossible, to see how plans change according to new information.

Tony Crocker":3vqindmv said:

I throw my fair share of at some of icelantic's musings, but his emphasis on flexibility is something to which all skiers should aspire.

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No question, Icelantic is the king of day-trip flexibility. 10+ years ago, before I got saddled with marriage/kid responsibilities, I had the exact same flexibility mojo working, but used it for mountain biking and x-c skiing.

Tony Crocker":293bzdbu said:

I throw my fair share of at some of icelantic's musings, but his emphasis on flexibility is something to which all skiers should aspire. I hope that was frequent flyer airfore to SA that he bailed on.

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no frequent flyer. ticket prices were no higher just 2 weeks out than they were 8 or more weeks out which seems to be the pattern lately and even cheaper when i booked utah just 8 days out (270 rt manchester nh/slc) than it was a month out for that trip. so, i plan and watch, but don't pull the trigger till the last possible minute. with 6 weeks paid vacation a year which i stretch to 7 weeks and can use them by the day how and when i want, i'm not too concerned about how i make use of my time. i'm happy to have more vaca time to use this winter coming. i may just work 4 day weeks with tues-thurs off and take two week long trips or longer to areas outside of new england.

i'm down on the cape now and have 4-5 properties to look at today. the 1st house was originally listed at 400,000 and is now down to 200,000 and i could probably pick it up for 180,000 with that 8,000 back for not owning in 3 years. the house is in osterville and is a steal. put good year round renters in it for 2-3 years, make a few hundred bucks a nonth income and sell it for 300-350,000 in 3 years avoiding capital gains tax and bam! easy money. i sold my properties in 2005 at the height of the market and have just been waiting patiently for things to be prime (buying) again. the time is now. jason, you listening?

time to make the donuts.....

rog

Tony Crocker":39jz2wts said:

Perhaps I will meet rfarren while at the Iron Blosam March 6-13 (or later if I linger in Utah).

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I normally hit Utah from around the 20th of March give or take a few days. That is when I have spring break, so it is a paid vacation. I prefer Utah in January and February, but it can be hard to find the days, and this year I may be going to rome for a long weekend to visit my sister. Although I prefer that trip in the summer, there is something to be said for dirt cheap airfare and lack of tourist crowds.

My big question is whether to go to Vail or Whistler around the 1st of January. In Either case I will most likely have to get make my choice by early October. Having a a friends condo makes Vail worth it, but it is expensive anyways. My friend needs to pick up the lift tix early because there are a bunch of deals if he buys them before the season starts. I have a free flight voucher, so Nikki(the girl) and I can go for the price of one ticket. iIkki is a beginner,and I think Vail might better suit her needs. If we have to, we can choose to spend an entire day at Breck peak 7, where she could really have fun on the low angle wide slopes. That could be a confidence builder.

Whistler will be all expenses paid, no questions asked. The downside to Whistler is that we would have to stay in my Uncle's condo with the rest of my family. They wake up late, and are lazy skiers. I'm not sure that Nikki would be benefitted by whistler. It is such a large mountain, and the she isn't ready to explore the higher alpine terrain which makes whistler worth it.

The other option of course is to try to do both. Go to whistler in dec 26th-Jan 3rd. Go to Vail some time in February or January, and go to Utah in March. I would have to cut Rome out but... hey so it goes. Tony any thoughts if I have to choose between Vail and Whistler?

i'd hold whistler off till as late in the season as you can. the weather in colorado is bound to be way better than whistler at that time of year. i would never even bother with whistler before mid march due to often socked-in-itis. i would never book a ski trip for before jan 1st to begin with east or west. if it were free though.........

rog

I'm in agreement with ya' Ice, but my schedule has to be accounted for.

i would never book a ski trip for before Jan 1st to begin with east or west.

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This is one of my rules also. Vail and Whistler are on the short list of areas where the snow coverage odds on average tip in your favor starting about Dec. 15. Odds are quite good but no guarantee Christmas week, but both of those places have serious cost (perhaps not for rfarren) and crowd issues and are best visited after Jan. 1.

the weather in colorado is bound to be way better than whistler at that time of year.

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Any time of year, really. But what we're looking for here is snow. January in Whistler offers better odds of good surfaces top to bottom than later in the season, the tradeoff being shorter ski hours (upper lifts close 3PM) and tougher alpine visibility. I'd pick March over January for Whistler on balance, but the time I was there Jan. 9-12 I had powder every day, including on the big vertical Peak-to-Creek.

I would pick January over March for Vail. It can be cold enough (<20F high temp) for the Back Bowl snow to stay dry in January, while much of them will transition to spring conditions with just a few hours of sun in March. January (as long as it's after the holidays) is also less busy than March at Vail.

I agree with the girlfriend comments. IMHO you need to be advanced intermediate to appreciate Whistler. And have the clothing and tolerance for weather. But regular eastern skiers would laugh at those who complain about Whistler's weather.

Great thread, I always like reading about peooples plans 8)

Well, I definately go against the advice to leave things late although coming from Aberdeen in northern Scotland I have to watch carefully to not leave things too late and not get my route Aberdeen-Amsterdam-Minneapolis-Missoula as Aberdeen-Amsterdam is a very busy business route.

Anyway, I booked my trip out to Missoula from March 17th til April 13th 2010 on May 26th for £450rtn which is as cheap as I have found flights in probably 5 years of trying and looking constantly. Since booking the same flights have been over £500 generally and IMO will not get cheaper as most is tax.

Most people on here are probably aware of my crazy itineries and it is not unusual for me to drive 7000 miles in 4 weeks but last season I cut back and in 2010 I am thinking at present of simply staying with friends in Philipsburg MT for a week or 10 days and taking advantage of a $239 season pass valid for 2009-2010(after March 1st 2010) and the whole of the following season. Then drive down to Utah for a couple weeks before returning to Missoula for my flight home. Being prepared to drive vast distances does give me plenty scope to find snow if things were really bad.

Its a bit early to plan much more and I might throw in a few small amendments but at the minute that will only be about what route and where to ski on the way from MT to UT.

One thing I would really like to do is fly up to Alaska for a few days during my trip. Its highly unlikely that I would ever go on a trip from the UK solely to Alaska as half my trip is to visit friends in Montana. So far £400rtn from SLC is as good as I have found or £300rtn from SEA. I'd rather pay the extra £100 than drive away out there again. Time will tell if that happens, any help in finding cheap flights in the USA would be greatly welcomed.

Other than that no other trips planned and taking a month off at a time limit my chances of much else happening :lol:

Comment on Whistler vs Vail:

From NYC, Whistler isn't that bad. There's an Air Canada flight out of Newark that goes out early AM. Other than the pain of getting up early and getting yourself to the airport, the rest should be OK. You get home at the end of the trip around 11pm and can sleep in your own bed. There is also a JFK flight that goes out mid-evening. You would need to stay in an airport hotel in Vancouver. The return flight is a red-eye. From Vancouver, Perimeter bus to the resort is a smooth operation. By the time you exit passport control, your gear is there. On the return, US customs is in Vancouver so you have nothing to do with customs in metro-NYC. The down side is that you can't ship equipment on the cheap since it's Canada. I think Whistler Village is more human-friendly than Vail Village. The terrain at Whistler is certainly better and it's a far bigger mountain. The weather and variable snow conditions have been beaten to death in this thread already. Basically, if you are checking your gear, it's an extra hour-ish on an airplane and an extra hour-ish of ground transportation.

Whistler is painful from Boston or Manchester, NH; my usual airports. I connect over O'Hare most of the time if I'm not super-organized to book early and get myself a Denver connection. That adds a lot of travel time and a big risk of something going drastically wrong with a flight. I haven't been stranded in Chicago yet but I've had many close calls at that airport over the years sprinting between terminal B and terminal C.

I'm in Vancouver from Dec 22 to Dec 27. I always do Christmas at my sister's house. If the skiing is good, I may carry on my boots and grab some performance demos for a day.

My plan of record for this winter is to pick up a Colorado Pass in the Denver REI in a couple of weeks. It's $439 at the moment but it will probably go up a little before I am in Denver the next time. My business cards are being printed today. They say Denver, Colorado as my office address. I'll do a week of vacation out there in late-Jan/early-Feb and sneak in the odd weekend when I'm out there on business. I doubt I'll use up the 10 Vail/Beaver Creek days that come with a Colorado Pass but I'll do my best. I have places to stay in Vail, Avon, and along the way in places like Evergreen. I know a lot of Killington retirees who rent places out there for a month or two so I have people to ski with even if I'm staying with working stiff friends closer to Denver.

I'll use Killington as my morning exercise instead of going to a gym. I have to deal with South Korea, Taiwan, LA, Denver, and the eastern time zone so my work day can run from 6am to midnight. It should be no issue to sneak out for a couple of hours at first chair most days. I figure this is another year where I log way over 100 days but most of them will be 8 to 10 runs and out. No agonizing over "quality".