berkshireskier
Member
Accuweather.com has their upcoming Winter forecast on their website. If you believe in long term weather forecasts, it looks good for the Northern Rockies. I personally don't believe in these long term forecasts.
Winter 2010-2011 weather forecast
- Thread starter berkshireskier
- Start date
Presumably the Northern Rockies forecast is based upon the strengthening La Nina. A lot of those places had poor to mediocre seasons last year with the El Nino.
This will be a winter to watch because of the ongoing climate debate. Many of you have heard about the first 6 months being the warmest on record worldwide and 4 of the individual months also set records. We in the western US have experienced the opposite in recent months. San Diego had its coldest July since 1933. And we all remember the winter-like skiing in April/May.
Joe Bastardi and some others are calling for a very cold Northern hemisphere winter. http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/189 Bastardi also believes the temperature records are fudged. His climate comments are updated frequently here: http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastard ... e-blog.asp.
At any rate, I've opined before that actual results over the next decade or two are likely to clarify the climate issues to some degree. The upcoming winter should start in that direction given the opposing predictions. I've always been skeptical of these season-ahead forecasts. It's one thing for someone to suggest that some factors might influence a temperature downtrend over 20-30 years. It's quite another for people like Bastardi to be sticking their necks out and saying the trend is going to start right now.
This will be a winter to watch because of the ongoing climate debate. Many of you have heard about the first 6 months being the warmest on record worldwide and 4 of the individual months also set records. We in the western US have experienced the opposite in recent months. San Diego had its coldest July since 1933. And we all remember the winter-like skiing in April/May.
Joe Bastardi and some others are calling for a very cold Northern hemisphere winter. http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/189 Bastardi also believes the temperature records are fudged. His climate comments are updated frequently here: http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastard ... e-blog.asp.
At any rate, I've opined before that actual results over the next decade or two are likely to clarify the climate issues to some degree. The upcoming winter should start in that direction given the opposing predictions. I've always been skeptical of these season-ahead forecasts. It's one thing for someone to suggest that some factors might influence a temperature downtrend over 20-30 years. It's quite another for people like Bastardi to be sticking their necks out and saying the trend is going to start right now.
berkshireskier
Member
Yea, Tony, I think these long-term forecasts are educated guesses, at best. It's a good way to generate some publicity for the website. There are simply too many variables that can affect the weather in any one location to try to predict six months ahead (or maybe even two weeks ahead). I think the statistical evidence backs this up as well.
mikesathome
New member
With the great lakes very warm this year "70 degrees in parts of lake Superior!!" the cold air could really bring a lot of lake effect snows in our neck of the woods, so cheers to that!