Round 1 to Joe Bastardi & Company

Topics of a general nature regarding snowsports, which don't easily fit into one of our other Liftlines categories. This is also the place to post Letters to the Editor.

Re: Round 1 to Joe Bastardi & Company

Postby Tony Crocker » Thu Sep 26, 2013 3:26 pm

flyover wrote:Muller's history is a little more complicated than that.
http://articles.latimes.com/2012/jul/30 ... e-20120730

Yes, we had some discussion about Muller's study on p. 2 of this thread
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=9675&start=15#p66285

admin wrote:An op-ed from a Berkeley professor published by the NY Times. Gee, I'm shocked.

It's best to analyze articles by their content and perhaps some background research rather than just where they were published. My correspondence with Powder is not going too well at the moment because I made the error of sending that reference from the Wall Street Journal (quoted on the previous page of this thread), which their editor dismissed out of hand much as admin does with the NY Times.

Matt Ridley, the author of the WSJ op-ed, has some history too. He's a member of the British House of Lords and his family is in the coal industry in northern England. I Google-searched to find an estimate for the upcoming IPCC report to compare with the 4-6C that was used in the Powder article and found this in Ridley's piece.
The upcoming IPCC report will say, "transient climate response" (TCR)—the actual temperature change expected from a doubling of carbon dioxide about 70 years from now, is "likely" to be 1 to 2.5 degrees Celsius and "extremely unlikely" to be greater than 3 degrees."

Ridley has been taken to task for inaccuracies in the past. I have no idea whether he's making this up, but I should probably have looked harder for another source.
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Re: Round 1 to Joe Bastardi & Company

Postby Tony Crocker » Mon Oct 07, 2013 3:44 pm

The IPCC reports have multiple scenarios. The 4th report in 2007 had 6:

B1 scenario 1.8 C best estimate, 1.1 – 2.9C range
A1T scenario 2.4C best estimate, 1.4 – 3.8C range
B2 scenario 2.4C best estimate, 1.4 – 3.8C range
A1B scenario 2.8C best estimate, 1.7 – 4.4C range
A2 scenario 3.4C best estimate, 2.0 – 5.4C range
A1FI scenario 4.0C best estimate, 2.4 – 6.4C range

The 5th report (available online via NY Times since Sept. 28) has 4 scenarios

RCP2.6 1.0C best estimate, 0.3 – 1.7 C range
RCP4.5 1.8C best estimate, 1.1 – 2.6C range
RCP6.0 2.2C best estimate, 1.4 – 3.1C range
RCP8.5 3.7C best estimate, 2.6 – 4.8C range

So it is clear that the IPCC has lowered the long term estimates some, and also that author Porter Fox using a 4.0 - 6.0C range for the Powder article was an extreme case even using the old report and outside all ranges of the new one.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
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Re: Round 1 to Joe Bastardi & Company

Postby Tony Crocker » Sun May 22, 2016 3:55 pm

Joe Bastardi is doubling down on his short to intermediate term predictions:
https://patriotpost.us/opinion/41944

The capsule background:
Global temperature graph: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hanse ... trend.html
IPCC predicted temperature increase per decade is in the 0.20C range
Actual of course depends upon start and end points. Avoiding El Nino (1998, 2015) or La Nina (1999, 2000, 2011 or 2012) start or end points actual increase 2001-2014 was 0.077C per decade and from 2001-2013 it was only .052C per decade. The latter number is beyond the confidence interval of most models.

2015 was a different animal. The anomaly was 0.86C vs. prior record 0.74 in 2014, and more relevantly the 0.63C of El Nino 1998. Actual increase 1998-2015 (El Nino to El Nino) was 0.137C per decade, still below IPCC projections but making the projection look far less unreasonable than a couple of years ago.

Joe Bastardi says La Nina 2017 will be a monster and drive the temperatures way down. We don't have so long to wait and see whether this particular prediction pans out. The drop from 1998 to 1999 was only 0.21C. A similar drop in 2017 would still make 2017 warmer than El Nino 1998.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
User avatar
Tony Crocker
 
Posts: 9801
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:37 am
Location: Avatar: Charlotte Bay, Antarctica 2011
Location: Glendale, California

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