Round 1 to Joe Bastardi & Company

Topics of a general nature regarding snowsports, which don't easily fit into one of our other Liftlines categories. This is also the place to post Letters to the Editor.

Re: Round 1 to Joe Bastardi & Company

Postby Tony Crocker » Wed Aug 14, 2013 12:58 am

Powder Magazine has jumped on the alarmist bandwagon.
http://www.powdermag.com/magazine/september-2013/ wrote:DEEP: The Future of Snow
Skiing is in jeopardy. If climatologists are right, we are looking at the end of the sport as we know it in 75 years. Features Editor Porter Fox takes a road trip to the heart of ski town America to find out, what now?

It doesn't look like can you read this article online without a subscription. I sent an e-mail to the editor with my SnowTrend chart (the one I used to analyze how good 2001-11 was and how bad 2011-12 was). A simpler version with trend line showing how North American skiing has been devastated by the warmer temperatures of the 2000's vs. the 1970's.
SnowTrend13a.JPG
SnowTrend13a.JPG (41.27 KiB) Viewed 12073 times

I'm not holding my breath waiting for a response.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
User avatar
Tony Crocker
 
Posts: 9777
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:37 am
Location: Avatar: Charlotte Bay, Antarctica 2011
Location: Glendale, California

Re: Round 1 to Joe Bastardi & Company

Postby Tony Crocker » Tue Sep 10, 2013 12:49 pm

Even the IPCC is about to admit that the past 15 years have not conformed to the dire predictions of the climate models.
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/e ... epage=true
Consequently the long term predictions are being scaled back some.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
User avatar
Tony Crocker
 
Posts: 9777
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:37 am
Location: Avatar: Charlotte Bay, Antarctica 2011
Location: Glendale, California

Re: Round 1 to Joe Bastardi & Company

Postby Tony Crocker » Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:17 pm

John Stifter, editor of Powder, finally responded to my e-mail. This is their "deadline season," so they are extremely busy. At any rate, he had several thoughtful responses, may include some caveats in Part II of the Series, and even forwarded my original e-mail to the author.

With regard to the slowdown in warming and IPCC's upcoming recognition of it, John sent this very detailed reference, well worth reading for those interested in the many complex issues: http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org/20 ... l-warming/
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
User avatar
Tony Crocker
 
Posts: 9777
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:37 am
Location: Avatar: Charlotte Bay, Antarctica 2011
Location: Glendale, California

Re: Round 1 to Joe Bastardi & Company

Postby SnowbirdDevotee » Tue Sep 17, 2013 8:06 pm

Thanks for continuing to carry to torch Tony.
This has been a very sad chapter in human history.
SnowbirdDevotee
 
Posts: 64
Joined: Tue Nov 23, 2010 4:42 pm
Location: Poconos, Pa

Re: Round 1 to Joe Bastardi & Company

Postby SnowbirdDevotee » Wed Sep 18, 2013 3:42 pm

With all the advanced technology and knowledge that man has gained the past century, it is incredible that we now live in the Age Of Stupid. Stupid is the new smart.
Here is a photo of 1200 year old trees just uncovered in Alaska.
http://juneauempire.com/outdoors/2013-0 ... joUBMasiSo

Now anyone with half a self thinking brain cell left would think, hum, 1200 yrs ago it must have been pretty warm in that part of Alaska to grow those mature spruce trees, likely a couple hundred years of warmth to mature. And we don't see any huge trees here now, we see mostly ice and a few stumps. Hmmm. So just 1200 years ago, a blink of the eye in human climate history, the climate of Alaska was much warmer, and for quite some time. Then for whatever reason, glaciers came, what did that? Duh?? Maybe the Climate Changed???? Who would've thought of that before greedy, selfish humans started driving SUV's. Yet this is the STUPIDITY that anyone with a self thinking brain cell finds themselves surrounded by. And somehow or another, the supposedly smartest individuals and institutions in our society, across much of the world, all are completely 100% full of the same stupidity. But they all agree with each other, and they are smart, and they can write smart convoluted papers, and to add to it, they are the supposed "caring ones" who will lead us down the path to personal and societal betterment. And let's not forget the renewable wealth that is ours for the taking if we just let the "good people" do what they need to do. If you don't understand that picture and article above, you have no brain cells left that haven't been hijacked to turn you into a slave.
SnowbirdDevotee
 
Posts: 64
Joined: Tue Nov 23, 2010 4:42 pm
Location: Poconos, Pa

Re: Round 1 to Joe Bastardi & Company

Postby Marc_C » Thu Sep 19, 2013 9:11 am

SnowbirdDevotee wrote:With all the advanced technology and knowledge that man has gained the past century, it is incredible that we now live in the Age Of Stupid. Stupid is the new smart.
Here is a photo of 1200 year old trees just uncovered in Alaska.
http://juneauempire.com/outdoors/2013-0 ... joUBMasiSo

Now anyone with half a self thinking brain cell left would think, hum, 1200 yrs ago it must have been pretty warm in that part of Alaska to grow those mature spruce trees, likely a couple hundred years of warmth to mature. And we don't see any huge trees here now, we see mostly ice and a few stumps. Hmmm. So just 1200 years ago, a blink of the eye in human climate history, the climate of Alaska was much warmer, and for quite some time. Then for whatever reason, glaciers came, what did that? Duh?? Maybe the Climate Changed???? Who would've thought of that before greedy, selfish humans started driving SUV's. Yet this is the STUPIDITY that anyone with a self thinking brain cell finds themselves surrounded by. And somehow or another, the supposedly smartest individuals and institutions in our society, across much of the world, all are completely 100% full of the same stupidity. But they all agree with each other, and they are smart, and they can write smart convoluted papers, and to add to it, they are the supposed "caring ones" who will lead us down the path to personal and societal betterment. And let's not forget the renewable wealth that is ours for the taking if we just let the "good people" do what they need to do. If you don't understand that picture and article above, you have no brain cells left that haven't been hijacked to turn you into a slave.


Please take your frothing diatribe to appropriate right-wing hate sites where I'm sure you will feel much more at home.
-marc
User avatar
Marc_C
 
Posts: 3172
Joined: Thu Mar 24, 2005 10:32 am
Location: A Sandy place south of a Great Lake

Re: Round 1 to Joe Bastardi & Company

Postby Admin » Thu Sep 19, 2013 9:27 am

Marc_C wrote:
Please take your frothing diatribe to appropriate right-wing hate sites where I'm sure you will feel much more at home.


Speaking of hate...

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy Note II using Tapatalk 2
Image

Image
User avatar
Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 9969
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 9:32 am
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Re: Round 1 to Joe Bastardi & Company

Postby Tony Crocker » Thu Sep 19, 2013 11:01 am

I would ascribe the "Age of Stupid" more to the media and the politicians, on both sides of this and many other issues. I do not believe the vast majority of the scientists are involved in any form of conspiracy. But they have been guilty of "groupthink" in designing and validating each other's models. And I would expect at least some of those models to be adjusted if the evidence of flat temperatures contradicts them. Thus we see the toning down of the more alarmist projections in the upcoming IPCC report, because the actual data will fall out of the 95% confidence interval of the previous models in just a few years more of the current trend. Adjustments are being made to the "climate sensitivity" of the models, which means those huge positive feedbacks some of us have questioned. I'm sure there will be some "foot-dragging" on this, but eventually science has to reflect the hard evidence, whichever way it goes. As I've said before, if temperatures soar over the next decade in the face of negative PDO and the quiet solar cycle, I'll be the first to admit I was wrong. My bet is that they will stay flat.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
User avatar
Tony Crocker
 
Posts: 9777
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:37 am
Location: Avatar: Charlotte Bay, Antarctica 2011
Location: Glendale, California

Re: Round 1 to Joe Bastardi & Company

Postby Tony Crocker » Sat Sep 21, 2013 11:35 pm

On p. 122 of the current SKI Magazine, also titled "The Future of Snow?" they have outdone the Powder feature last month. It predicts increases in temperature of.....
4.5F by 2030, and 16.2F by 2100. :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
Yes, I suppose with a 16.2F increase we might see "zero inches midwinter snowpack at all elevations" at Park City, which commissioned this ridiculous report. Perhaps Park City would have been better served by paying closer attention to the deadline on its lease renewal. :stir:
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
User avatar
Tony Crocker
 
Posts: 9777
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:37 am
Location: Avatar: Charlotte Bay, Antarctica 2011
Location: Glendale, California

Re: Round 1 to Joe Bastardi & Company

Postby EMSC » Sun Sep 22, 2013 7:57 pm

So weird to have both magazines pick the same timing for poorly researched hype articles on climate. Especially given the well known warmth flattening and major divergence from all of the supposedly highly accurate computer models over the past decade+. I figure someone behind the scenes was doing quite the sales pitch to probably a lot of recreation oriented titles and two of the ski industries biggest bit and bit hard on the pitch. I would be super surprised if it was coincidental timing.
User avatar
EMSC
 
Posts: 1982
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2007 6:54 pm
Location: Front Range of Colorado

Re: Round 1 to Joe Bastardi & Company

Postby Tony Crocker » Mon Sep 23, 2013 1:08 pm

Today's L.A. Times: "Global warming 'hiatus' puts climate change scientists on the spot"
http://www.latimes.com/science/la-sci-c ... 1164.story

Naturally I wondered if this issue had been addressed by the NY Times, and found this:
What to Make of a Warming Plateau from June 10.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/11/scien ... .html?_r=0
IMHO the NY Times is trying to spin their article some, while the LA Times quotes a more balanced range of sources.

Last week's Wall Street Journal article "Dialing Back the Alarm on Climate Change"
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 12464.html
The above article is noteworthy for citing multiple sources that highlight excessive water vapor feedback as the primary source of temperature overprojection in the climate models.
Two recent papers (one in the Journal of the American Meteorological Society, the other in the journal Earth System Dynamics) estimate that TCR is probably around 1.65 degrees Celsius. That's uncannily close to the estimate of 1.67 degrees reached in 1938 by Guy Callendar, a British engineer and pioneer student of the greenhouse effect. A Canadian mathematician and blogger named Steve McIntyre has pointed out that Callendar's model does a better job of forecasting the temperature of the world between 1938 and now than do modern models that "hindcast" the same data.

The significance of this is that Callendar assumed that carbon dioxide acts alone, whereas the modern models all assume that its effect is amplified by water vapor. There is not much doubt about the amount of warming that carbon dioxide can cause. There is much more doubt about whether net amplification by water vapor happens in practice or is offset by precipitation and a cooling effect of clouds.

Since the last IPCC report in 2007, much has changed. It is now more than 15 years since global average temperature rose significantly. Indeed, the IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri has conceded that the "pause" already may have lasted for 17 years, depending on which data set you look at. A recent study in Nature Climate Change by Francis Zwiers and colleagues of the University of Victoria, British Columbia, found that models have overestimated warming by 100% over the past 20 years.

Explaining this failure is now a cottage industry in climate science. At first, it was hoped that an underestimate of sulfate pollution from industry (which can cool the air by reflecting heat back into space) might explain the pause, but the science has gone the other way—reducing its estimate of sulfate cooling. Now a favorite explanation is that the heat is hiding in the deep ocean. Yet the data to support this thesis come from ocean buoys and deal in hundredths of a degree of temperature change, with a measurement error far larger than that. Moreover, ocean heat uptake has been slowing over the past eight years.

The most plausible explanation of the pause is simply that climate sensitivity was overestimated in the models because of faulty assumptions about net amplification through water-vapor feedback. This will be a topic of heated debate at the political session to rewrite the report in Stockholm, starting on Sept. 23, at which issues other than the actual science of climate change will be at stake.


A lot of this sounds like what I wrote in response to soulskier on p.2 of this thread in May 2011: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=9675&start=15#p61307

Over to you, Patrick. :stir:
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
User avatar
Tony Crocker
 
Posts: 9777
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:37 am
Location: Avatar: Charlotte Bay, Antarctica 2011
Location: Glendale, California

Re: Round 1 to Joe Bastardi & Company

Postby longshanks » Mon Sep 23, 2013 7:18 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:Powder Magazine has jumped on the alarmist bandwagon.
http://www.powdermag.com/magazine/september-2013/ wrote:DEEP: The Future of Snow
Skiing is in jeopardy. If climatologists are right, we are looking at the end of the sport as we know it in 75 years. Features Editor Porter Fox takes a road trip to the heart of ski town America to find out, what now?

It doesn't look like can you read this article online without a subscription. I sent an e-mail to the editor with my SnowTrend chart (the one I used to analyze how good 2001-11 was and how bad 2011-12 was). A simpler version with trend line showing how North American skiing has been devastated by the warmer temperatures of the 2000's vs. the 1970's.
SnowTrend13a.JPG

I'm not holding my breath waiting for a response.


Well Tony...your chart does not show a define trend in any direction...as for alarmists - Beware of the Zealots always
User avatar
longshanks
 
Posts: 199
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 5:45 pm

Re: Round 1 to Joe Bastardi & Company

Postby flyover » Thu Sep 26, 2013 9:06 am

flyover
 
Posts: 299
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 6:17 pm
Location: Minneapolis, MN

Re: Round 1 to Joe Bastardi & Company

Postby Admin » Thu Sep 26, 2013 9:53 am

flyover wrote:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/26/opinion/a-pause-not-an-end-to-warming.html?hp&_r=0


An op-ed from a Berkeley professor published by the NY Times. Gee, I'm shocked.

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy Note II using Tapatalk 2
Image

Image
User avatar
Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 9969
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 9:32 am
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Re: Round 1 to Joe Bastardi & Company

Postby flyover » Thu Sep 26, 2013 10:43 am

Admin wrote:An op-ed from a Berkeley professor published by the NY Times. Gee, I'm shocked.


Muller's history is a little more complicated than that.

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/jul/30 ... e-20120730
flyover
 
Posts: 299
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 6:17 pm
Location: Minneapolis, MN

PreviousNext

Return to General Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 2 guests


All content herein copyright © 1999-2017 First Tracks!! Online Media

Forums Terms & Conditions of Use

cron