2011/2012 Winter Weather Forecast

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2011/2012 Winter Weather Forecast

Postby berkshireskier » Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:17 am

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteom ... 112012.asp

It seems a little early to be issuing a winter weather forecast, but here it is from Accuweather.com. I consider these long-term forecasts to be, at best, educated guesses.
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Re: 2011/2012 Winter Weather Forecast

Postby Admin » Tue Aug 16, 2011 5:57 pm

berkshireskier wrote:http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/53551/snow-forecast-for-the-winter-of-20112012.asp

It seems a little early to be issuing a winter weather forecast, but here it is from Accuweather.com. I consider these long-term forecasts to be, at best, educated guesses.


We published today a summary of what's being discussed right now:
http://www.firsttracksonline.com/2011/0 ... n-the-u-s/
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Re: 2011/2012 Winter Weather Forecast

Postby Tony Crocker » Sun Aug 21, 2011 12:07 am

Nice discussion by admin of the competing predictions. I'll have to give Patrick & company their due that the Arctic sea ice melting this summer has been high, certainly surprising after the big winter and much more than after the last big La Nina in 2008. I wonder if Joe Bastardi is commenting on this yet, perhaps waiting for the September minimum which is usually the benchmark on this subject.
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Re: 2011/2012 Winter Weather Forecast

Postby Admin » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:59 pm

Tony Crocker wrote: I wonder if Joe Bastardi is commenting on this yet, perhaps waiting for the September minimum which is usually the benchmark on this subject.


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dYzXbGnWg8[/youtube]
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Re: 2011/2012 Winter Weather Forecast

Postby Geoff » Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:26 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:Nice discussion by admin of the competing predictions. I'll have to give Patrick & company their due that the Arctic sea ice melting this summer has been high, certainly surprising after the big winter and much more than after the last big La Nina in 2008. I wonder if Joe Bastardi is commenting on this yet, perhaps waiting for the September minimum which is usually the benchmark on this subject.


Why does "the big winter" for snowfall at latitude 45 or less have anything to do with the polar ice pack?

...besides, the Antarctic ice cap has been growing steadily. I doubt my boat slip is in any jeopardy in my lifetime.
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Re: 2011/2012 Winter Weather Forecast

Postby berkshireskier » Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:33 pm

I don't mean to re-ignite the debate over whether we're experiencing man-made global warming, but I thought this was an interesting finding from a NASA scientist (although like all findings about global warming, subject to intense debate in the scientific community).

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... ntist.html
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Re: 2011/2012 Winter Weather Forecast

Postby Tony Crocker » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:31 pm

Geoff wrote:Why does "the big winter" for snowfall at latitude 45 or less have anything to do with the polar ice pack?

Joe Bastardi predicted the past winter would be big with negative PDO and the strong La Nina. He also predicted that the Arctic ice melting in summer would be less than in recent years.

It is true that Antarctic ice has been growing during the recent period that Arctic ice has been retreating. This is one of the red flags indicating that overall global temperatures are not rising as fast as the models predict.

I agree with the AGW advocates that Arctic ice is more important than Antarctic ice in climate analysis. A precipitous decline in the larger Arctic icepack could have a powerful positive feedback effect on temps with all of that open water absorbing solar radiation that the ice had previously reflected back into space.

Roy Spencer's findings referenced by berkshireskier have attracted some media attention in recent weeks.
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Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
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Re: 2011/2012 Winter Weather Forecast

Postby Admin » Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:27 pm

Admin wrote:We published today a summary of what's being discussed right now:
http://www.firsttracksonline.com/2011/0 ... n-the-u-s/


Jim Steenburgh, who I quoted in the article above, expands on his thoughts on his own blog:

http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.c ... ities.html
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Re: 2011/2012 Winter Weather Forecast

Postby berkshireskier » Thu Aug 25, 2011 7:31 am

Admin wrote:
Admin wrote:We published today a summary of what's being discussed right now:
http://www.firsttracksonline.com/2011/0 ... n-the-u-s/


Jim Steenburgh, who I quoted in the article above, expands on his thoughts on his own blog:

http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.c ... ities.html

Thanks for the link. Very informative blog post. I thought this sentence could apply to a long-term weather forecast for ANY part of the continent:
"but for now, I'm comfortable saying that it's too soon to say with any confidence what this winter will be like across the western United States."
As I've said before, I have little to no faith in any of these long term forecasts and how they will impact the weather in any given location.
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Re: 2011/2012 Winter Weather Forecast

Postby Tony Crocker » Thu Aug 25, 2011 12:22 pm

IIRC Jim Steenburgh was the guy who wrote the detail analysis of Alta snowfall in 2009 and e-mailed me a draft just before that. He seems to know his stuff as far as I can tell. "The season ahead" forecasting is the least reliable IMHO. The lively debate on the intermediate term (10-20 years) regarding AGW, PDO, sunspot cycle etc. may get clarified at some point, but I think random variable factors tend to dominate individual seasons.
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Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
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Re: 2011/2012 Winter Weather Forecast

Postby tenpoun1 » Wed Nov 30, 2011 2:17 pm

I'm not really a true believer in the whole global warming theories. I think it might be a scam to push a global Carbon Tax's. That's my opinion. They seem to always that there are always warm spots throughout history and we might just be in that.
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