kingslug wrote:But...if all it takes is a car trip up to the local hill for a few turns..total cost $100.00, as compared to a grand to fly out west, then you do what you can...that being said I'm changing my tune and probably going to head west in December from now on rather than sit around and hope it snows here...
Those are 10-1 odds, and as people surely remember from last year December is not a slam-dunk in the West either.
In the last 9 years the Cottonwood Canyons were not worth a fly-in trip all of last December, half of December 2007 or the first week of December 2009. I'm sure most of you realize those are far better odds than at most western resorts. It's hard to justify betting airfare $ anywhere before mid-December unless it's a late call to somewhere that got a lot of snow in November.
Vermont has had very good skiing in 3 of the past 14 Decembers and there were a few others that were decent if you picked the right week. If you are driving in the East and don't have to commit until you know it will be good and balance that against the probability of the western December trip being a bust, I suspect the math may actually favor easterners not far advance booking western trips until after New Year's. This has to be true for the vast majority of western destinations. Whistler, Bachelor, Targhee and LCC are the likely exceptions and even with those I'd be inclined to stick to the mid-December period right before the Christmas crunch to maximize your odds.
As I may have mentioned before, I see a lack of logic in advance booking destination trips in early season if you're NOT doing them in January - March.
jamesdeluxe wrote:I booked SLC on Nov 14 for 425 each from JFK
This was a different situation as LCC had just had a 50-inch storm. The weather would have had to shut down completely for a month for his trip not to have been worth it. Recall that the weather DID shut down for the first 2 weeks of that month.