East on track for an average or better season

Resort and backcountry skiing and snowboarding in eastern US and Canada, including our famous reader-submitted No-Bull Snow Reports.

East on track for an average or better season

Postby Harvey44 » Sat Feb 07, 2015 1:14 pm

James these TRs have been over the top fun. Thanks for posting them.

Tony Crocker wrote: ...in North America we are on track for the 3rd lowest snowfall ski season on record...


Tony showing his western bias. Last I checked we are part of North America too. :stir:

A guess: measured by snowfall, we in the east are on track for an average season or maybe a little better.
Last edited by Harvey44 on Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Silvretta Montafon, AT 02/04/15

Postby Tony Crocker » Sat Feb 07, 2015 1:52 pm

As of January 31 the Northeast was at 82% of normal snowfall, though I'm sure that has increased over the past week. Qualitatively I have no doubt the eastern season is above average due to consistent cold temps keeping the thaw and rain away.

As I noted in the lengthy discussions of 2010-11 and 2011-12, the Northeast counts as 1 of 8 regions in my analyses, which is a similar proportion as its lift served ski acreage in North America.

Due to the relatively good current seasons in the Northeast and Front Range Colorado, 2014-15 may not be as bad as 2011-12 when weighted by skier visits.
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Re: Silvretta Montafon, AT 02/04/15

Postby Harvey44 » Sat Feb 07, 2015 3:19 pm

Actually it's funny... we've really only had a few weeks of great skiing, but memories are short. Jason says it looks like we've got cold through the end of Feb, so that is something. It's amazing to me how little snow we need to have good skiing. The snowfall of 12/10 - 12/11 (and the subsequent rain oddly enough) created a thin but awesome base that is preventing any bottoming out. The skiing is really good almost everywhere not just NoVT.

Sorry for the drift James.
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Re: East Outshining the West This Season

Postby Tony Crocker » Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:33 pm

With 2-3 feet this past week, Vermont areas are now about average for snowfall and will be above average after the 2 feet predicted for the next few days. In fact, Jay and Stowe will probably overtake Alta in season snowfall by Wednesday. :stir:

JSpin is a happy camper this season: http://jandeproductions.com/
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Re: East on track for an average or better season

Postby Harvey44 » Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:36 pm

I know Tony is considered the best in the business at splitting out a thread, and I apologize for the thread drift I created in James TR.

That said I really don't want to own this thread. It just doesn't feel right to me.

EDIT: I can live with the title as it is in this post. This is Admin's house, not my way to come in with that kind of thread.

You probably know, but just in case... I'm getting some database errors trying to post.
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Re: East on track for an average or better season

Postby Tony Crocker » Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:01 pm

Harvey44 wrote:That said I really don't want to own this thread. It just doesn't feel right to me.

I don't live in the East and I chose the more provocative thread title. Nonetheless Harvey's post was the first on the subject, so if wants to change it, that's OK by me.

I certainly think it's newsworthy if Jay/Stowe snowfall exceeds Alta's as late as mid-February, though. The odds are quite long against this relationship persisting through the end of the season, but not impossible. FYI Jay was second only to Alyeska in 2000-01 North American ski area snowfall.

Alyeska is also way below average so far, probably about the same as Alta. By Wednesday I expect Jay/Stowe to trail only Revelstoke, Targhee and Jackson in North America ski area snowfall.
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Re: East on track for an average or better season

Postby jamesdeluxe » Mon Feb 09, 2015 2:31 am

2000-01 was my first season of downhill skiing and I had nothing to compare it to, so I remember thinking mid-season "everyone talks about the East having difficult conditions, but this seems like a lot of snow." Tony, do you have any stats of how East Coast 2014-15 is stacking up YTD against 00-01, our gold standard?

Tony Crocker wrote:I certainly think it's newsworthy if Jay/Stowe snowfall exceeds Alta's as late as mid-February, though. The odds are quite long against this relationship persisting through the end of the season, but not impossible.

Agreed, very improbable, but a girl can dream.
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East on track for an average or better season

Postby jasoncapecod » Mon Feb 09, 2015 8:56 am

Meanwhile in North America we are on track for the 3rd lowest snowfall ski season on record (74% of normal through end of January with little relief in sight) behind 67% in 1976-77 and 70% in 1980-81. A normal final third of the season would put us in the 80-85% range, similar to 2011-12.


You mean the WEST..
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Re: East on track for an average or better season

Postby Tony Crocker » Mon Feb 09, 2015 2:50 pm

jamesdeluxe wrote:Tony, do you have any stats of how East Coast 2014-15 is stacking up YTD against 00-01, our gold standard?

Not even close. Jay and Stowe only got up to average this past week. Collectively I have the 3 best Northeast seasons as:
133% in 1995-96
131% in 1976-77
127% in 2000-01

The mind-blowing number in 1995-96 was 389 inches at Sugarloaf, well over double its 175 inch average.
2000-01 was unusually concentrated on Northern Vermont, with records of 513 at Jay and 434 at Smuggler's.
Data for 1976-77 is sparse but includes 496 inches on Mt. Washington and a record 346 at Killington.
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Re: East on track for an average or better season

Postby jkamien » Mon Feb 09, 2015 4:02 pm

Just to throw in another data source, my good friend Wesley Wright at the SkiVT-L maintains a utility that graphs snow depth according to the Mt. Mansfield stake at Stowe.
This first link below is to the entrance page, and the second a graph of snow depths from
75-76
95-96
00-01
14-15 (year to date)

Clearly the current year is above average, and on a par so far with 75-76, but quite a ways to go to catch up with 00-01 and 95-96.

http://www.uvm.edu/skivt-l/?Page=mansel.php3

http://www.uvm.edu/~empact/data/gendate ... 0&totals=0
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Re: East on track for an average or better season

Postby lono » Tue Feb 10, 2015 8:32 am

lono wrote:1968/1969 was biggest winter in my Vermont days. 100 to 150 inch settled base along the entire Green Mt spine.

Data is very limited that far back, but all 3 eastern sites where I have 1968-69 were records:
565 inches on Mt. Washington
285 inches at Cannon
327 at the Mansfield Stake, whoich we know from JSpin's analysis understates snowfall significantly

1969 is an example where East and West can be good at the same time. January 1969 was the second highest rainfall month in the history of Los Angeles. Mammoth got about 250 inches of snow that month based upon nearby hydrology sites.
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Re: East on track for an average or better season

Postby Patrick » Mon Feb 16, 2015 12:14 pm

The snow totals in Ottawa in mid-January were at one point 85cm vs the 125cm accumulation at that time. Artificial runs were still totally awesome...and then the snow came. Valentine Day was probably one of the best I've had locally. Although I can't get away due to commitments, I'm slightly ahead of last season's record personal beat. Or to put it another way, I currently surpassed my total season average since 1981-82 of 37 days. :-o \:D/ Now if only I could feel my toes. :shock:
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Re: East on track for an average or better season

Postby Tony Crocker » Mon Feb 16, 2015 12:48 pm

Jim Steenburgh compares Boston and Alta snowfall over the past 3 weeks
http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.c ... ng-us.html

I believe Boston has had more February snowfall than any ski area in North America.
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Re: East on track for an average or better season

Postby Patrick » Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:02 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:I believe Boston has had more February snowfall than any ski area in North America.

Not sure of the final amount in Boston, but I know from Lucky Luke's FB, that Terrace/Ktimat got crushed in one storm. Some much that Lucky couldn't get back to the home's staying in as the roads were snowed in. I believe the amount I saw was 159cm on February 6. That's about 5 feet.
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Re: East on track for an average or better season

Postby Tony Crocker » Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:21 pm

Boston has had 58.5 inches so far in February.

Jay (mid estimate 90% of top reported) has had 51, Stowe 52, Revelstoke 50. Jay's chairs are closed today due to it being -20F with high winds.

I am aware of both Shames and Powder King's snow reputations but have had no success in obtaining data from either.
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