Jay Peak Summit: Most Snow in the Lower 48 in 2014-15???

Resort and backcountry skiing and snowboarding in eastern US and Canada, including our famous reader-submitted No-Bull Snow Reports.

Jay Peak Summit: Most Snow in the Lower 48 in 2014-15???

Postby Admin » Fri Jun 05, 2015 6:00 pm

Regarding those Jay Peak numbers, I simply don't buy that summit figure. I patrolled there for 10 years. That summit is the rockiest, most windswept place on the planet, save for perhaps the Mt. Washington Observatory. There is absolutely no reasonable way to measure snowfall at that altitude at Jay Peak. Combine that with the fact that it barely rained throughout the entire season, and there is no reasonable explanation for the substantial discrepancy between the base figure and the summit figure. I would be reasonably confident that the base figure is a reasonable approximation for the snowfall throughout the ski area's entire vertical drop.
Image

Image
User avatar
Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 9969
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 9:32 am
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Re: Western Weather 2014-15

Postby jamesdeluxe » Fri Jun 05, 2015 9:06 pm

Angry Admin
User avatar
jamesdeluxe
 
Posts: 3304
Joined: Mon Oct 04, 2004 3:19 pm
Location: South Orange, NJ

Re: Western Weather 2014-15

Postby Admin » Fri Jun 05, 2015 9:39 pm

jamesdeluxe wrote:Angry Admin


Not angry, just calling :bs:
Image

Image
User avatar
Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 9969
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 9:32 am
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Re: Western Weather 2014-15

Postby Tony Crocker » Sat Jun 06, 2015 10:38 am

admin wrote:substantial discrepancy between the base figure and the summit figure.

I was surprised by that 57% ratio as the long term relationship is 80%.
admin wrote:I would be reasonably confident that the base figure [at Jay Peak] is a reasonable approximation for the snowfall throughout the ski area's entire vertical drop.

Scott Braaten measured 290 inches at Stowe's 3,014 foot snow plot, which leads me to believe 294 is a reasonable number for Jay. There has been ongoing local controversy about Jay's upper reporting since Conrad Klefos left around 2000. However that upper number is measured (or made up), averaging it with the lower number seems to fit in with the 1982-1999 data provided by Conrad Klefos.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
User avatar
Tony Crocker
 
Posts: 9757
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:37 am
Location: Avatar: Charlotte Bay, Antarctica 2011
Location: Glendale, California

Re: Western Weather 2014-15

Postby Admin » Sat Jun 06, 2015 10:46 am

The fact is that Jay's summit is a windswept point of almost solid bedrock right at tree line on an already notoriously windy mountain. Jay officials have a hard enough time keeping any snow there at all, as evidenced by the snow fencing lining the upper Vermonter and Northway trails, the two runs that leave the Sky Haus tram top station. Without that fencing, snow would be blown straight to Canada. Instead, that fencing creates drifts that may be redistributed and groomed by snowcat to cover those two trails. I personally can't imagine how anyone could accurately measure snowfall in that kind of environment. And with such a cold, rain-free winter, why in the world would there be such a discrepancy between the upper mountain and lower mountain figures? All of this leads me to suspect that the upper mountain snowfall figure is complete fantasy.

Tony Crocker wrote:Scott Braaten measured 290 inches at Stowe's 3,014 foot snow plot, which leads me to believe 294 is a reasonable number for Jay.


Not necessarily. Even in a typical year, there can be a marked difference between the two mountains that are separated by an hour's drive. However, this year many of the big snow events tracked south as coastal storms, evidenced by the record snow that fell in places like Boston. These coastal storms aren't Jay's calling card -- in fact, "Nor'easters" generally deliver bigger snow to places further south along the Green Mountain spine and much closer to the ocean, like Killington. Jay is simply too far from the Atlantic and separated from that giant bathtub by too many mountains. Where Jay excels is on Alberta Clipper-type storms that come in from the northwest. The first mountain of any substantial elevation that those storms hit is Jay, resulting in orographic lift that produces substantial snowfall in a similar way to how Targhee squeezes moisture from storms that roll in through the Snake River Valley of Idaho. It's no coincidence that Jay fans refer to the "Jay Cloud" and Grand Targhee is also known as "Grand Foggy."
Image

Image
User avatar
Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 9969
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 9:32 am
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Re: Western Weather 2014-15

Postby Marc_C » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:24 pm

Admin wrote:The fact is that Jay's summit is a windswept point of almost solid bedrock right at tree line on an already notoriously windy mountain. Jay officials have a hard enough time keeping any snow there at all, as evidenced by the snow fencing lining the upper Vermonter and Northway trails, the two runs that leave the Sky Haus tram top station. Without that fencing, snow would be blown straight to Canada. Instead, that fencing creates drifts that may be redistributed and groomed by snowcat to cover those two trails. I personally can't imagine how anyone could accurately measure snowfall in that kind of environment. And with such a cold, rain-free winter, why in the world would there be such a discrepancy between the upper mountain and lower mountain figures? All of this leads me to suspect that the upper mountain snowfall figure is complete fantasy.

Tony Crocker wrote:Scott Braaten measured 290 inches at Stowe's 3,014 foot snow plot, which leads me to believe 294 is a reasonable number for Jay.


Not necessarily. Even in a typical year, there can be a marked difference between the two mountains that are separated by an hour's drive. However, this year many of the big snow events tracked south as coastal storms, evidenced by the record snow that fell in places like Boston. These coastal storms aren't Jay's calling card -- in fact, "Nor'easters" generally deliver bigger snow to places further south along the Green Mountain spine and much closer to the ocean, like Killington. Jay is simply too far from the Atlantic and separated from that giant bathtub by too many mountains. Where Jay excels is on Alberta Clipper-type storms that come in from the northwest. The first mountain of any substantial elevation that those storms hit is Jay, resulting in orographic lift that produces substantial snowfall in a similar way to how Targhee squeezes moisture from storms that roll in through the Snake River Valley of Idaho. It's no coincidence that Jay fans refer to the "Jay Cloud" and Grand Targhee is also known as "Grand Foggy."


But Tony has numbers and data and spreadsheets and graphs. Surely you realize all that trumps actual experience on the hill in question! :stir: :troll:
-marc
User avatar
Marc_C
 
Posts: 3170
Joined: Thu Mar 24, 2005 10:32 am
Location: A Sandy place south of a Great Lake

Re: Western Weather 2014-15

Postby Tony Crocker » Sat Jun 06, 2015 9:30 pm

Killington was farther below average (80%) than Jay and Stowe were (90%). Cannon was the only place I track close enough to the Atlantic to get a bump (131%) from this year's weather pattern.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
User avatar
Tony Crocker
 
Posts: 9757
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:37 am
Location: Avatar: Charlotte Bay, Antarctica 2011
Location: Glendale, California

Re: Western Weather 2014-15

Postby Admin » Sat Jun 06, 2015 9:48 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:Killington was farther below average (80%) than Jay and Stowe were (90%). Cannon was the only place I track close enough to the Atlantic to get a bump (131%) from this year's weather pattern.

Which has absolutely nothing to do with my point that Jay's summit number is :bs: other than my anecdotal comment that Killington often does better from coastal events.
Image

Image
User avatar
Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 9969
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 9:32 am
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Re: Western Weather 2014-15

Postby Tony Crocker » Sat Jun 06, 2015 9:58 pm

Actually neither of us knows where Jay's press release snow number comes from. It could be from some well sheltered leeward tree stash or it could be a SWAG. Admin and I agree that it's not representative of ski terrain as a whole. In that respect it's similar to Alyeska and Jackson, where legitimate snow plots are located in far snowier locations than most of the ski terrain.

As far as the coastal bias of 2014-15 storms go, no Vermont areas, even Okemo and Stratton, were close enough to the coast to be pushed above average in snowfall.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
User avatar
Tony Crocker
 
Posts: 9757
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:37 am
Location: Avatar: Charlotte Bay, Antarctica 2011
Location: Glendale, California

Re: Western Weather 2014-15

Postby Admin » Sat Jun 06, 2015 10:28 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:Actually neither of us knows where Jay's press release snow number comes from. It could be from some well sheltered leeward tree stash or it could be a SWAG.


I personally believe that given the base area figure, it comes from a wet dream in the marketing department.
Image

Image
User avatar
Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 9969
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 9:32 am
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Re: Western Weather 2014-15

Postby Harvey44 » Sun Jun 07, 2015 4:38 pm

OK not really following this but Admin are you saying that you don't believe Jay gets more at the top than at the base?

I do think it's reasonable to assume that the two mountains are often within 10% of each other.
NYSkiBlog.com
User avatar
Harvey44
 
Posts: 1262
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2005 3:37 pm
Location: North River, NY
Location: North River, NY

Jay2 2014-15

Postby Admin » Sun Jun 07, 2015 11:34 pm

Harvey44 wrote:OK not really following this but Admin are you saying that you don't believe Jay gets more at the top than at the base? .


I do. But in a season where it hardly ever rained I don't believe that it's 43% more. And I also don't believe that it's possible to accurately measure at the summit of that particular mountain.
Image

Image
User avatar
Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 9969
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 9:32 am
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Re: Western Weather 2014-15

Postby Admin » Sun Jun 07, 2015 11:34 pm

Harvey44 wrote:OK not really following this but Admin are you saying that you don't believe Jay gets more at the top than at the base? .


I do. But in a season where it hardly ever rained I don't believe that it's 43% more. And I also don't believe that it's possible to accurately measure at the summit of that particular mountain.
Image

Image
User avatar
Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 9969
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 9:32 am
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Re: Western Weather 2014-15

Postby Harvey44 » Mon Jun 08, 2015 5:04 am

Wouldn't that affect/equalize base depth more than the amount that fell?
NYSkiBlog.com
User avatar
Harvey44
 
Posts: 1262
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2005 3:37 pm
Location: North River, NY
Location: North River, NY

Re: Western Weather 2014-15

Postby Admin » Mon Jun 08, 2015 7:09 am

Harvey44 wrote:Wouldn't that affect/equalize base depth more than the amount that fell?

That's kind of my point, actually, even though no one here is discussing base depths. If the only historical measuring point is at the base, and the long term correlation of that figure to this submit figure is 80%, and given that this year those two figures should've been more closely correlated, not less, it casts doubt on the credibility of the summit figure.
Image

Image
User avatar
Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 9969
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 9:32 am
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Next

Return to Eastern North America

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests


All content herein copyright © 1999-2017 First Tracks!! Online Media

Forums Terms & Conditions of Use

cron