predictions look good

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predictions look good

Postby icelanticskier » Mon Oct 05, 2009 7:35 pm

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Re: predictions look good

Postby jamesdeluxe » Mon Oct 05, 2009 8:54 pm

Image
Is Henry an alias for Dr. Weather?
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Re: predictions look good

Postby Skiace » Tue Oct 06, 2009 1:05 am

this is... pretty much the opposite of what the El Niño pattern predicts for the west. :-k
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Re: predictions look good

Postby Tony Crocker » Tue Oct 06, 2009 1:09 am

I'm always suspicious of predictions like this. The URL is from accuweather, but I can't find a source explanation of the map's raionale.
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Re: predictions look good

Postby jasoncapecod » Tue Oct 06, 2009 3:53 am

Yeah Right..I wonder if this guy is holding Natural Gas/Heating Oil futures that are coming due in December..
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Re: predictions look good

Postby Bluebird Day » Tue Oct 06, 2009 9:12 am

Looks like the BLUE states are getting all the snow this year.... poor GOP is going to lose its "base" again. :lol:
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Re: predictions look good

Postby Tony Crocker » Tue Oct 06, 2009 9:52 am

The MEI is down a little bit at the recently posted value of .754.

Any prediction of "below by 50%" is really going out on a limb. That's a 1-in-30 year prediction, almost certainly going to be wrong. On the other end, 90+% of ski areas have NEVER had a 200% season. Consistent places like Alta and Targhee have never exceeded 150%.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
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Re: predictions look good

Postby skimore » Tue Oct 06, 2009 10:24 am

about the only place that 200% may verify is some downstate location going from 8" to 16" for the year
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Re: predictions look good

Postby Patrick » Tue Oct 06, 2009 10:25 am

Tony Crocker wrote:Any prediction of "below by 50%" is really going out on a limb. That's a 1-in-30 year prediction, almost certainly going to be wrong. On the other end, 90+% of ski areas have NEVER had a 200% season. Consistent places like Alta and Targhee have never exceeded 150%.


Never really looked into AccuWeather. Are their predictions (percentage from normal) based on expected snowfall in ski areas or just in general across the state? The standard deviation would be much greater in places on the borderline snow/not-snow divide that aren't in the mountains. For example, how much snow does Boston, New York or Philadelphia general receives?

To place in context, Ottawa's almost record winter received 424.1 cm in 2007-08 (average: 235.8 cm) which was a 180% year.

In the bad category, last year was 93% of normal. At 3.2cm, last March being at 8% of normal.

So if the accuweather talks about snow across the whole area, I could see those percentage away from the norm being more realistic than data collected at ski areas or in the mountains (Mansfield or Mt Washington). However I don't know if they are realistic for this winter. :roll:

EDIT: I just noticed the Accuweather map mentioned x% of Normal.
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Re: predictions look good

Postby jamesdeluxe » Tue Oct 06, 2009 12:10 pm

Did any of you catch the fine-print disclaimer in that Accuweather document?

** All predictions and maps based on 2009-10 Farmer's Almanac. :lol:
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Re: predictions look good

Postby Tony Crocker » Tue Oct 06, 2009 12:53 pm

about the only place that 200% may verify is some downstate location going from 8" to 16" for the year

Good point. Once the average gets over 100 inches, 200% seasons are very rare. Mt. Baldy averages about 175 and its max seasons (the 2 huge El Ninos in 1983 and 1998) were about 350. Arizona Snowbowl average 244 max 459 in 2004-05 but rumored over 500 in 1972-73 when it was open July 4. The most volatile area in the Sierra is Mt. Rose, average 353 max 600 in 1994-95. Other regions in North America are less volatile than the Sierra. Although Mt. Washington NH volatility as measured by standard deviation is not that large, it had 565 inches in 1968-69 despite a 43-year average of only 302. The worldwide prize in this category goes to Portillo, which averages 254 but had 729 in 1972, assisted by a fairly strong El Nino.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
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Re: predictions look good

Postby berkshireskier » Tue Oct 06, 2009 3:38 pm

This winter forecast is from Henry Margusity - one of the meteorologists at Accuweather. The forecast is strickly his and NOT the official Accuweather long-term forecast. Being somewhat of a weather nut, I read Henry's blog almost every day. He is a legitimate meteorologist, but he's also an admitted snow lover and he is highly biased towards predicting snow storms. His long term prediction for this winter is based primarily on his theory that there will be a weak El Nino and that this usually results in stormy and colder weather in the East. I'm highly suspect of the reliablity of any long-term forecast, especially one that is 3 to 6 months out. My guess is that this is probably no better, from a statistical viewpoint, than pure guesswork (if you were able to plot the accuracy of such forecasts over a long period of time). The undeniable fact is that weather patterns can be extremely variable and occur in a random pattern. Furthermore, in the Northeast, the winter weather can vary dramatically over a range of a few hundred miles in any given season. Northern Vermont may get a lot more snow than the Catskills, for example, or vice versa over some shorter time periods. I hope Henry is right, but, having lived in the Northeast for decades, I make the same forecast every Fall - over the course of the Winter months, we'll have periods of below average temperatures, periods of above average temperatures, some snow storms, some snow storms turning to sleet and then to rain, some storms of all rain, and almost every other type of weather. This forecast pretty much comes true every year.
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Re: predictions look good

Postby Tony Crocker » Tue Oct 06, 2009 11:04 pm

Here are the 5 seasons with similar MEI readings for AUG/SEP as now.
MildElNino.JPG
MildElNino.JPG (42.61 KiB) Viewed 4955 times


No trend here that I'd want to make any predictions. All of these seasons maintained the mild El Nino readings through at least JAN/FEB. 1979-80 was the worst ever season for the Northeast.

1991-92 also had a similar reading at AUG/SEP but strengthened significantly after that. That was a very peculiar season with a persistent split jet stream and overall the 4th worst season of the past 40+ years. How strange? Mt. Baldy had more snow than Snowbird that season.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
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Re: predictions look good

Postby berkshireskier » Wed Oct 07, 2009 8:11 am

Thanks for the chart, Tony. There does seem to be a fair amount of variability over the five time periods you illustrate (especially if you include that one outlier year in the Northeast). Interestingly, Henry Margusity is predicting a dry winter for California and the Southwestern States, including most of Colorado, but your charts indicate that the opposite has mostly happened when the MEI readings are where they are now. Furthermore, the Northeast has not really had any huge snow winters during these five years. Again, I think these long range forecasts are, for the most part, worthless. Plus, the El Nino pattern can change over time, throwing the entire rationale off course.
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Re: predictions look good

Postby Patrick » Wed Oct 07, 2009 8:32 am

berkshireskier wrote:Thanks for the chart, Tony. There does seem to be a fair amount of variability over the five time periods you illustrate (especially if you include that one outlier year in the Northeast).(...) Furthermore, the Northeast has not really had any huge snow winters during these five years.


2007 was an amazing year. I don't recall many years where they were so many storm. They just started late in the season. From Valentine day til the week after Easter, it was storm after Epic storm. If 2009-10 is a repeat, I would be very very happy. :drool:

And I do remember the terrible 1979-80 season, that was the year were a few Quebec ski areas went under or decide to get snowmaking. However I remember htting a powder day on my first visit at Whiteface, it was a few weeks after the Winter Olympics. Remember that my mom had a hard time skiing the bumps and cut up powder on Skyward, man that was so long ago. I just realized that my mom was exactly the same age as I am now. :-(
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