Midwinter thaw

rfarren

rfarren

New member
The EC midwinter thaw is upon us. It looks to be warm up in the mountains this week. Weather in the mid 40s. Luckily I haven't seen rain forecasted. The skiing should be nice this week through friday with the warmer temps. Saturday will be a $hit show when the temps drop back down to seasonal norms. There is a small storm expected with that cold front that should drop a small amount of snow. No doubt presidents weekend should be scratchy if not downright icy. There is a larger storm forecasted for next tuesday that could drop quite a bit of snow, but being that far off it's not worth getting excited about.

On a side note, NYC is nice right now. Sun and 50 degree weather is a nice change from our recently buffalo like winter.
 
Tony Crocker":3aj6unqw said:
I'll be interested to hear from JSpin how far north this thaw extends.
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I'd be more interested in hearing from MadPatSki about how far into Canada the thaw extends. With the thaw having the potential to reach up to 50 at MRG this week :shock: I think it is safe to assume no where in New England will be safe. Considering next weekend is a holiday weekend, I might be considering my first trip north of the boarder for skiing.
 
Hit 50 today in Western Mass. Turning colder tonight and then warming up again towards the end of the week. Definitely some melting and softening of the snow pack (and I assume the ski slopes too). This weekend, conditions could be ugly if turns colder after hitting 50 or higher on Friday. Groomed frozen granular is NOT my top choice for a ski surface.
 
In response to the question on Canada , the skiing is currently excellent north of the St. Lawrence with about 6 to 8 inches of new snow today from the Laurentians east up along the north shore past Quebec city . The base depths out in the woods north of the St. Lawrence are now deeper that the Quebec's Townships despite the townships receiving bigger snowfalls . This is a point I have made in the past that the Township snow doesn't last so it is more hit and miss. The warm weather is forecasted to spread north of the St. Lawrence where above freezing temps are forecasted but temps are not forceasted to go as high as what is forecasted for Quebec's Townships or New England . Will have to see what happens .
 
berkshireskier":jtc0ebxp said:
Hit 50 today in Western Mass. Turning colder tonight and then warming up again towards the end of the week. Definitely some melting and softening of the snow pack (and I assume the ski slopes too). This weekend, conditions could be ugly if turns colder after hitting 50 or higher on Friday. Groomed frozen granular is NOT my top choice for a ski surface.
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I'm right there with ya. I'm wondering if staying south, or hitting a place like Bromley, with its western exposure, is the best bet. I do think the catskills will be below freezing this weekend.
riverc0il":jtc0ebxp said:
With the thaw having the potential to reach up to 50 at MRG this week :shock: I think it is safe to assume no where in New England will be safe. Considering next weekend is a holiday weekend, I might be considering my first trip north of the boarder for skiing.
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Probably a better bet than staying put in NoVT.
 
Tony Crocker":3crv3ufn said:
I'll be interested to hear from JSpin how far north this thaw extends.
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I've been in the valleys around here all day, where we were certainly above freezing, although Powderfreak has been doing a nice job of updating from Stowe and borderwx has been updating from the Jay Peak area. The best place to follow along with their stuff is in the NNE thread at Americanwx.com, but the latest I read from Powderfreak in the thread was that the snow line was 1,800' at Stowe and he is expecting the snow below the 2,000' mark to be punchy once it freezes up. We've had snow tonight with an inch or two down here in the valley.
 
riverc0il":8hjvkn9g said:
Tony Crocker":8hjvkn9g said:
I'll be interested to hear from JSpin how far north this thaw extends.
Click to expand...
I'd be more interested in hearing from MadPatSki about how far into Canada the thaw extends. With the thaw having the potential to reach up to 50 at MRG this week :shock: I think it is safe to assume no where in New England will be safe. Considering next weekend is a holiday weekend, I might be considering my first trip north of the boarder for skiing.
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Not sure of the damage (and the Laurentians are probably in the same shape of the Ottawa hills on snow depth), but we got some light rain and move just above freezing yesterday. -19c today, because the thaw starts tomorrow for 2-3 days. Calling for +11c on Friday then back below below zero. I'll be skiing tomorrow night and Sat-Sun and probably Monday, so my TRs should be out by mid-March. Zero time right now, I'm skiing and prepping skis too much + I'm Mr. Mom all week. :stir:
 
The only good thing about this thaw is that very little rain is predicted. There might be a small amount in some places but nothing to ruin the snow pack. It will be scratchy this weekend due to the temps forecasted to get up to the low/mid 40's up in the mountains during the week and subsequent freeze, but without a lot of rain it shouldn't be bomber proof.

I do think that I will ski Bromley (south/west facing) on Sunday, although it will be below freezing the sun should help soften up the surfaces. Worst comes to worst it will be comfortable in the sun even if the conditions aren't great.
 
Guess I won't be skiing much in Feb..not a big fan of ice these days..Utah has spoiled me.....could get better if we get some snow though..
 
It is uncanny how eastern weather seems to punish those who advance plan trips for peak times. Long term data indicates advance booking for Christmas week is a dumb idea anyway. But this is not the first time that a nice run of ski conditions has gone sour shortly before President's week.
 
Tony Crocker":2amwm5m5 said:
It is uncanny how eastern weather seems to punish those who advance plan trips for peak times. Long term data indicates advance booking for Christmas week is a dumb idea anyway. But this is not the first time that a nice run of ski conditions has gone sour shortly before President's week.
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IMHO, Tony, long-term planning for ANY time in the Northeast is almost ALWAYS a major crapshoot. Weather and snow conditions are extremely variable during the course of almost all winters. I would never put out a lot of money for an extended ski vacation anywhere in the Northeast at any time of the Winter.

Maybe some snow in parts of the Northeast next week. I think the best thing we can hope for now is some warm weather to soften up the top surfaces of the slopes. There is plenty of base out there, but it is just frozen solid with the change from warmer weather to very cold lately.
 
Tony Crocker":oe7ca567 said:
this is not the first time that a nice run of ski conditions has gone sour shortly before President's week.
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nor will it be the last. However, there are a few storms in the pipeline that could do a lot of good and refresh those surfaces.
 
Tony Crocker":j25n24mo said:
It is uncanny how eastern weather seems to punish those who advance plan trips for peak times. Long term data indicates advance booking for Christmas week is a dumb idea anyway. But this is not the first time that a nice run of ski conditions has gone sour shortly before President's week.
Click to expand...

This winter has to be somewhat unique for six (?) weeks of weather below freezing in much of the northeast. Our weather station in North River did not show any temps above freezing from Jan 4 through this past weekend.
 
by my count, this second thaw of this season, like the last will hardly damage some areas of high new england. been up high george this week skiing nothing but great untracked pow above 2000 feet. didn't get nearly as warm in nh as it did in vermont this past monday. this thaw which starts tomorrow, high in jackson is 39 with sun will result in still cold snow up high. friday will be the tough day, but followed by snow showers/wind which should cover a bunch of the firm stuff to create good surfaces again for the weekend if we get enough snow between 4-6200 feet. it's times like these that i rely on old reliable, big george.

i mean, can't be worse than what utah had for most of jan into feb cept for a storm or two. it'll be fine.

i got 9 days off starting monday and will buy a ticket to utah if things really look grim, but i ain't buying it completely.

rog
 
This year, on a whim, I decided to go with the seasonal forecast which was for a cold n snowy start to ski season in the east, with an early spring (which has actually been the trend lately). NW was supposed to get colder and snowier in Feb/March. So I decided to do most of my skiing in the east for the first part of the season...mostly at Gore, Greek Peak, Whiteface (just one day so far), McCauley (super cold n powdery day) and two excellent days at Hickory.

SO GLAD I SKIPPED THE WEEK IN UTAH! I usually go the first week of Feb (around Stupid Bowl time). Apparently that week was dry. I didn't miss much.

Decided instead to go to Interior British Columbia the last weekend of Feb through the first week of March. It looks like it is stacking up to be a good time to go. Gearing up!
 
Actualy that week turned out great...I was so shot on superbowl sunday from the storm that hit I couldn't move...that was the day we hit the comma chute...I thought my trip was going..well not be as good as most ..but I was very wrong..it turned out perfect...did my avi course in 37 to 40 degree temps..then a storm blew in for 2 day and Alta picked up a foot plus of blower pow ..then another blew in for the weekend..that one was rough...40 mile an hour graupel..but it still added up...weather reports for Utah are ..useless most times....
 
I see the only non-"A" conditions in LCC this winter as the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 16 rain to 10,000 feet. My understanding is that everything not wind exposed was resurfaced before the next weekend.
 
Tony Crocker":23lb6ziz said:
I see the only non-"A" conditions in LCC this winter as the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 16 rain to 10,000 feet. My understanding is that everything not wind exposed was resurfaced before the next weekend.
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And then reexposed, then resurfaced, then exposed, then resurfaced except for here and there (often unexpectedly), then exposed, then covered - but it was really light so it didn't cushion much, then exposed again....all depending on precisely where you were on the hill.

You get the idea.
 
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