Alta, UT 1/30-31/2016

Admin

Administrator
Staff member
Days 40-41: The best birthday present ev-er!

That's what I call a 15-inch storm with free refills.

On Friday night we learned that LCC Road would close at 6 a.m. Saturday for avalanche control, with an estimated reopening at 8:30. Friend Arnie and I exchanged messages and decided that it would be best to beat the road closure and deliberately interlodge ourselves at GMD, thus we were sitting in the café at 6:05 a.m. as bombs fell all around us (and everyone else likewise interlodged sang "Happy Birthday," embarrassing the living crap out of me -- thanks, guys! I'm blaming Kay.).


GMD at 6:15 a.m.


Still interlodged at 8 a.m.

This turned out to be the right decision. Not only did we get in two laps before the first folks made it up the road (we were fourth chair on Wildcat without even trying), but from what I heard the traffic was a disaster. My friend Jon (not Telejon) left his house just south of the mouth of LCC at 8 a.m. and didn't start skiing until 10:30. Despite the traffic, Alta never felt busy all day. All lifts were ski-on. Did everyone end up at Snowbird?

We started the day with the 6" of dense, creamy snow that fell overnight, topped by the fluffy snow from the cold side of the storm that fell throughout the day. We scored absolute first tracks through the gate of my favorite little secret spot (and no one behind us) -- good enough that we went back for seconds before calling it a day at 3:15 -- which was about 15 minutes too late to avoid the downhill traffic exiting Snowbird.


Heavy snowfall during the day in Wildcat (photo: Tom)


Waiting for the bus: Admin (in teal), Kay (in blue) and Arnie (in tan/red). Yeah, they sang "Happy Birthday" here, too. (photo: Tom)

Of course, on a storm day none of the gated terrain opened on Saturday, save for Supreme Bowl, so we got a whole new round of untracked today in a total of 15" of new snow that was pure fairy-dust fluff. First tracks down Graveyard was absolutely divine, as was Susie's Trees. Albion Gully, though, was completely untracked and all-time.


Skidog


AmyZ


Bobby Danger

Unlike Saturday, today was as busy as I've ever seen it at Alta this season. Wildcat was ski-on but we waited as long as 10 minutes on Supreme and Collins was usually around 3 minutes. Then again, we could've been at Vail today:

12645249_1159065240771109_2992445272885205281_n.jpg

Location: Vail, Colo.; Date: Jan. 31, 2016; photo: Brian Metzler/Instagram
 
Maybe the cycle has turned. Alta had 104 inches of snow this January. This is the first above average January since 2010.

For the the prior 15 Januaries Alta averaged 79 inches vs. long term average of 91 inches. This stretch included the two lowest, 30.5 inches in 2003 and 2015, and only one huge January, 178.5 inches in 2008.

The 1990's before admin & company arrived in Utah, were very different. From 1993-2000 every January had at least as much as this year, and the average for those 8 years was 137 inches.

Despite the traffic, Alta never felt busy all day. All lifts were ski-on. Did everyone end up at Snowbird?
I'm still waiting for admin to display his journalistic chops. The last year info was published, 2007, Alta and Snowbird had roughly equal skier visits in the 500K range. I share the impression that Snowbird visits have steadily increased since then while Alta's have remained stagnant at best. Doesn't admin have the slightest curiosity what the magnitude of these changes have been? And surely after a decade in Utah he should have the resources to find out.
 
Tony Crocker":1dp8chvn said:
Maybe the cycle has turned. Alta had 104 inches of snow this January. This is the first above average January since 2010.

doubtful..........i can't speak to pre 1990 skiing in Utah , however, the 2+ ft storms are lore at this point.....the snowiest weekend I've ever skied Utah was in 2007......haven't skied a day like that since....

i skied on Jan 13th this year.......historically the "snowiest day" in Utah ........ it was a dust on crust kind of day.......

Tony, is there anyplace in the world that is showing above average snowfall relative to "average?"

P.S..........is that a real picture from Vail? I literally can't believe it..........
 
Skiing in the 70's & 80's less than 100" was unheard of except in a really bad year. I remember 1 year with those low numbers. My how times and the climate have changed. Enjoy it while it last boys. You might have to move to Alaska to get any decent snow in the future.
 
OldDog":7u3o0gy5 said:
Skiing in the 70's & 80's less than 100" was unheard of except in a really bad year. I remember 1 year with those low numbers. My how times and the climate have changed. Enjoy it while it last boys.
Total BS

SnowTrend15.png

SnowTrendGraph15.jpg

The trend line in the graph above did not have any negative slope until after the second-worst season on record in 2014-15. At the time of the worst season in 1976-77, more people thought the earth was cooling than warming.

I have these graphs by region and the message is the same. We have short memories. 2010-11 was conspicuously the highest snowfall season of our lifetimes and that graph had as much of an uptrend after that season as it has a downtrend now. Among the record breaking sites was Alta Collins with 724 inches Nov-Apr.
jojo_obrien":7u3o0gy5 said:
however, the 2+ ft storms are lore at this point..
You can go here http://www.alta.com/conditions/weather- ... ll-history and select any of the past 11 seasons for daily and storm totals. Storms of at least 2 feet in 2010-11: 1 in November, 2 in December, 3 in February, 2 in March and 2 in April. Max was over 5 feet Dec. 19-22, 2010. Storms of at least 2 feet in the past 4 low years: 3 in 2011-12, 4 in 2012-13, 4 in 2013-14 and surprisingly 5 in 2014-15. To no surprise the 2014-15 storms barely made the 2 foot threshold but you'll see some 3+ foot storms in the other seasons.

jojo_obrien":7u3o0gy5 said:
the snowiest weekend I've ever skied Utah was in 2007......haven't skied a day like that since....
Anecdotal experience is essentially useless to drawing conclusions about anyone's snowfall. Consider my infamous track record of only 48% of normal snowfall over 104 advance scheduled ski days in Utah since 1981.

The current season is running at 118% in the West and will likely put an end to the 4-year streak of subpar seasons. Note a longer streak of subpar seasons from 1986-1992.

We probably should have another climate change thread, because the record temperatures of 2015 did constitute a breakout from the plateau of the prior 15 years. And no it's not El Nino because 2015 was significantly warmer than 1998.

The impact of this upon North American skiing, even if you believe the future climate model projections, will be primarily upon the rain/snow line. That's why some climatologists said the 2014-15 season in the Northwest would be "normal in 2070." For high altitude areas in the Rockies like Colorado or Utah's Cottonwood Canyons, I'd be surprised if we see any discernable change in snowfall for at least 50 years.
OldDog":7u3o0gy5 said:
You might have to move to Alaska to get any decent snow in the future.
Bad advice. As far as Alyeska is concerned, it's very low and it had as severe rain issues as Washington and Oregon in 2014-15. Salt Lake City will remain the best place in the world to live from a ski perspective IMHO.

And while the temperature breakout of 2015 weakens the case that temperatures are flat or falling, the actual rate of temperature increase over the past 15-20 years remains well below that projected by the climate models.
 
According to the chart you provided. The years I was skiig there '70 to '85 there were two years below average.

There have been 5 in a row over the last 5 years.

I stand by my comment.
 
Welcome to Liftlines, OldDog. But honestly, anecdotal evidence like what you just cited is statistically insignificant.

Did I just find myself agreeing with Crocker? :shock:
 
OldDog":2dz7osjd said:
According to the chart you provided. The years I was skiig there '70 to '85 there were two years below average.

There have been 5 in a row over the last 5 years.

I stand by my comment.
There were also other years that were heavily front or rear loaded for storms so even though they may have netted out as above average, much of the season skied as if it was below average. Averages have their place, but they often give an inaccurate picture of what the skiing was like and Tony tends to abuse their importance in his "analysis".

Another problem with that chart is that all of Utah is a single bucket. As we know, northern, central, and southern Utah can vary drastically. We've already had storms this season where the Wasatch received 6" and Brian Head got 30" out of the same storm.
 
Sorry I meant 5 in the same time period of 15 years. It was just a comment and I appreciate your providing the chart showing what I remember. I do miss the old powder days. Some of my fondest memories are of the canyons closed, having to stay the night and be treated to some of the most heaven on earth powder the next day. Enjoy it guys & girls it is a beautiful.
 
Marc_C":24llyb8b said:
Tony Crocker":24llyb8b said:
We probably should have another climate change thread,...
Why? To listen once again to the science deniers cnlaim it's a hoax?

No, but I'll be happy to rightfully claim that an anthropogenic cause had not been conclusively proven.
 
Admin":2ejewypr said:
Marc_C":2ejewypr said:
Tony Crocker":2ejewypr said:
We probably should have another climate change thread,...
Why? To listen once again to the science deniers cnlaim it's a hoax?

No, but I'll be happy to rightfully claim that an anthropogenic cause had not been conclusively proven.

So by that logic, if you saw 10 doctors and 9 of them said you need surgery by the end of the week and the 10th one said eat mangos and drink more water, you'd be stocking up on mangos and bottles of water?

A recent study put the probability of it not being an anthropogenic cause at less than p=0.0001.
How conclusive a proof do you need when you occupy the same test tube in which the test is being conducted?
You can have your opinions, but you can't choose facts.
 
The real question we need to ask is why the denial? Our economy is based on oil and other fossil fuels, and the products created from fossil fuels including skis & snowboards. The truth is that denial is nothing more than a way to create doubt, to keep that economy going as long as possible. Those that have made billions year after year in the oil industry do not want to let go of their economic position. I find it more than a little Ironic that those funding climate denial, are the same people that claim to believe in free markets. The only thing free about them is the amounts of money billionaires are free to spend to occlude the truth. How does this relate to a ski forum? The real tragedy; oil billionaires have let their greed get in the way of good ski season and a skiing forum is talking politics rather than skiing.
 
Anybody ever ski off the backside of twin peaks at snowbird? We used to do it in the spring then hike down to silver lake when we ran out of snow. Always seemed to be someone there fishing willing to give us a ride down to Alpine were we could call for ride. One run but it would take all day.
 
OldDog":20rt7tcm said:
Anybody ever ski off the backside of twin peaks at snowbird? We used to do it in the spring then hike down to silver lake when we ran out of snow. Always seemed to be someone there fishing willing to give us a ride down to Alpine were we could call for ride. One run but it would take all day.

Soon to be part of in-bounds Snowbird.
 
Marc_C":bfubp6t0 said:
A recent study put the probability of it not being an anthropogenic cause at less than p=0.0001.

Citation, and funding source for said study, please?

And in 1980, 99.9% of "respected climatologists" predicted that we were headed for another ice age. They were wrong, too.
 
Tony Crocker":2c04i2qf said:
We probably should have another climate change thread,...

Thanks for the condescending comment.

What don't you get get? The lower elevations below 6000 ft in the Northern Rockies get less and less snow every year. The alpine still gets pounded but with higher density snow. The snowpack is becoming more coastal in terms of water equivalent. Everything NASA predicted back in the the late 1980s is true.
 
Admin constantly posts about how Snowbird is so much busier based on his own observations from Alta, why would it be any surprise he's a climate denier? ;)
 
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