Western Weather 2016-17

Resort and backcountry skiing and snowboarding in the western US and Canada, including our famous reader-submitted No-Bull Snow Reports.

Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Tony Crocker » Wed Jan 25, 2017 6:29 pm

No you didn't say every year. But it's absurd to claim that mid-January is more prone to either dry spells or inversions than early or late January. And it's obnoxious to persist with the claim while producing zero evidence to back it up.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
User avatar
Tony Crocker
 
Posts: 10035
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:37 am
Location: Avatar: Charlotte Bay, Antarctica 2011
Location: Glendale, California

Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Admin » Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:59 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:No you didn't say every year. But it's absurd to claim that mid-January is more prone to either dry spells or inversions than early or late January. And it's obnoxious to persist with the claim while producing zero evidence to back it up.


And it's more obnoxious to persist that it doesn't from 500 miles away, with only specious evidence to back it up.
Image

Image
User avatar
Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 10012
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 9:32 am
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Tony Crocker » Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:22 am

"This is why logicians like to point out that it’s incumbent on the person making the unverified claim to offer proof. Trump has promised an investigation into voter fraud that he purports will bolster his claims. Our research, and data from the country’s largest state, suggests that he has his work cut out for him."

Precisely my opinion regarding the unverified claim about the incidence of Utah dry spells and their inversion subsets.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
User avatar
Tony Crocker
 
Posts: 10035
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:37 am
Location: Avatar: Charlotte Bay, Antarctica 2011
Location: Glendale, California

Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby berkshireskier » Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:20 am

Tony Crocker wrote:"This is why logicians like to point out that it’s incumbent on the person making the unverified claim to offer proof. Trump has promised an investigation into voter fraud that he purports will bolster his claims. Our research, and data from the country’s largest state, suggests that he has his work cut out for him."

Precisely my opinion regarding the unverified claim about the incidence of Utah dry spells and their inversion subsets.


Oh God, we're not bringing Donald Trump's propensity for "stretching the truth" into the FTO forums, are we? LOL
berkshireskier
 
Posts: 432
Joined: Tue May 15, 2007 2:20 pm
Location: Western Massachusetts

Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Admin » Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:53 am

A couple of fun charts via Wasatch Snow Forecast:

Image

And viewed against that stellar 2010-11 winter:
Image

Image
Image

Image
User avatar
Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 10012
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 9:32 am
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby jamesdeluxe » Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:56 am

berkshireskier wrote:Oh God, we're not bringing Donald Trump's propensity for "stretching the truth" into the FTO forums, are we? LOL

Buyer's remorse :-"
User avatar
jamesdeluxe
 
Posts: 3449
Joined: Mon Oct 04, 2004 3:19 pm
Location: South Orange, NJ

Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Admin » Thu Jan 26, 2017 10:08 am

Admin wrote:Image


Funny, but notice how in each of those past 5 seasons there's a flat line around mid-January. :lol:
Image

Image
User avatar
Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 10012
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 9:32 am
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Marc_C » Thu Jan 26, 2017 10:32 am

Tony Crocker wrote:Precisely my opinion regarding the unverified claim about the incidence of Utah dry spells and their inversion subsets.

For about the 10th time - take up your objections about unverified claims with the local meteorologists who have been telling us what we've been telling you for 16 years.
And no, what you claim we are asserting is not what we have actually said.
-marc
User avatar
Marc_C
 
Posts: 3209
Joined: Thu Mar 24, 2005 10:32 am
Location: A Sandy place south of a Great Lake

Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Tony Crocker » Thu Jan 26, 2017 4:19 pm

Admin wrote:Funny, but notice how in each of those past 5 seasons there's a flat line around mid-January. :lol:

Go back to the 1990's (before the Marc's moved to Utah :-k ) and you'll see a lot of Januaries in Utah that look like this one.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
User avatar
Tony Crocker
 
Posts: 10035
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:37 am
Location: Avatar: Charlotte Bay, Antarctica 2011
Location: Glendale, California

Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Marc_C » Thu Jan 26, 2017 4:23 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:Go back to the 1990's (before the Marc's moved to Utah :-k ) and you'll see a lot of Januaries that look like this one in Utah.

When did anyone ever say *every* January? How did you equate "often" with "every"?
Yet again, you're arguing against an assertion that you made up.
-marc
User avatar
Marc_C
 
Posts: 3209
Joined: Thu Mar 24, 2005 10:32 am
Location: A Sandy place south of a Great Lake

Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Admin » Thu Jan 26, 2017 4:40 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:
Admin wrote:Funny, but notice how in each of those past 5 seasons there's a flat line around mid-January. :lol:

Go back to the 1990's (before the Marc's moved to Utah :-k ) and you'll see a lot of Januaries in Utah that look like this one.


So, is that way of admitting that on that graph there's a demonstrable dry spell in mid-January in each of the past 5 years?
Image

Image
User avatar
Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 10012
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 9:32 am
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Tony Crocker » Thu Jan 26, 2017 7:03 pm

Yes it is, but 5 years is a totally insignificant period of time to determine a true weather pattern. I could find a longer period than that in the 1990's where the opposite is true. Given weather volatility you need 20+ years and 30 would probably be better to make this kind of evaluation.

When I first collected snow data in the mid- 1990's, I had on average about 20 years of data for the typical area. I observed at that time that March was the snowiest month in most of Utah and Colorado. With another 20 years of data the "March bulge" has dissolved completely except for the Continental Divide areas in CO. And guess what, there's a real meteorological reason for a boost in spring snowfall for that specific region.

The recent short term January dry spell (which by the way applied to most of the American West, not just Utah) similarly dissolves if you extend the data back far enough. In this case 20 years is more than adequate, even though AltaGuard has 50 years of data to thoroughly debunk it. Last year was probably the start of dissolving it going forward, and this year accelerates that process.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
User avatar
Tony Crocker
 
Posts: 10035
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:37 am
Location: Avatar: Charlotte Bay, Antarctica 2011
Location: Glendale, California

Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Admin » Thu Jan 26, 2017 7:10 pm

Admin wrote:So, is that way of admitting that on that graph there's a demonstrable dry spell in mid-January in each of the past 5 years?
Tony Crocker wrote:Yes it is, but 5 years is a totally insignificant period of time to determine a true weather pattern.


There we have it, folks! After literally years of stubborn refusal, Tony Crocker has finally admitted that there's been a demonstrable dry spell in mid-January in Utah for every single year for at least the past 5 years. If I had access to a 10-year graphic it would display a similar pattern -- I ought to know, for unlike Mr. Crocker I've actually been here to live it. This is consistent with the assertion of Utah residents both on these forums and elsewhere, as well as Utah meterologists that there is often (no one ever said always or most often, other than Crocker) a dry period during mid-January in the Wasatch.

:bow:

Despite this remarkable admission, Tony held on to the bitter end. Just a day earlier he wrote:No you didn't say every year. But it's absurd to claim that mid-January is more prone to either dry spells or inversions than early or late January. And it's obnoxious to persist with the claim while producing zero evidence to back it up.


So, let's tally this up, shall we? a) You've now admitted that we didn't say every year, and b) you've now been provided evidence to back it up and have agreed that it has taken place every single year for the past five years. Methinks that any attempt to persist in your ignorant denial is now fruitless.

Finally, with regard to Marc_C's advice to visitors seeking powder to avoid mid-January if possible, those flat lines clearly demonstrate why he gives that advice, and I can assure you that none of those visitors skiing in the current decade gives a flying $hit what happened 20 or 30 years ago. This year was an aberration as was 2010-11, but if I wanted to travel to Utah looking for powder, would I deiberately avoid a two-week period that has repeatedly had nearly 0% chance of powder skiing based on the past 5 years? Hells yeah I would. Case closed.

Now that we've finally cleared that up, may we move on to some other topic?
Image

Image
User avatar
Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 10012
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 9:32 am
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Marc_C » Thu Jan 26, 2017 7:20 pm

Admin wrote:Now that we've finally cleared that up, may we move on to some other topic?

Perhaps for the rest of this season, but don't be surprised if all this is forgotten next season and is rehashed.

Recall how many seasons it took to finally put the amount of north facing terrain question out of our misery.
-marc
User avatar
Marc_C
 
Posts: 3209
Joined: Thu Mar 24, 2005 10:32 am
Location: A Sandy place south of a Great Lake

Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Admin » Thu Jan 26, 2017 7:21 pm

Marc_C wrote:
Admin wrote:Now that we've finally cleared that up, may we move on to some other topic?

Perhaps for the rest of this season, but don't be surprised if all this is forgotten next season and is rehashed.

Recall how many seasons it took to finally put the amount of north facing terrain question out of our misery.


No $hit.
Image

Image
User avatar
Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 10012
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 9:32 am
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

PreviousNext

Return to Western North America

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests


All content herein copyright © 1999-2017 First Tracks!! Online Media

Forums Terms & Conditions of Use