
Moderator: Tony Crocker
q wrote:Has there been much snow in Utah this year in mid January?
Admin wrote:Finally, with regard to Marc_C's advice to visitors seeking powder to avoid mid-January if possible, those flat lines clearly demonstrate why he gives that advice, and I can assure you that none of those visitors skiing in the current decade gives a flying $hit what happened 20 or 30 years ago. This year was an aberration as was 2010-11, but if I wanted to travel to Utah looking for powder, would I deiberately avoid a two-week period that has repeatedly had nearly 0% chance of powder skiing based on the past 5 years? Hells yeah I would. Case closed.
admin wrote:two-week period that has repeatedly had nearly 0% chance of powder skiing based on the past 5 years?
MarcC wrote:Yes, snowfall amounts from 30 years ago are indeed irrelevant.
Tony Crocker wrote:admin wrote:two-week period that has repeatedly had nearly 0% chance of powder skiing based on the past 5 years?
Not the past 5 years, but the Januaries of 2011-2015.
Tony Crocker wrote:January during those 5 years averaged 62% of normal snowfall at Alta Collins. Sounds pretty bad, but the 8 Januaries from 1993-1999 averaged 150%.
Tony Crocker wrote:January during those 5 years averaged 62% of normal snowfall at Alta Collins. Sounds pretty bad, but the 8 Januaries from 1993-1999 averaged 150%. It's called weather volatility and in both cases my bet over the long run is reversion to the mean.
admin wrote:Really? How many Januaries are there from 2011 to 2015?
admin wrote:Recent history is all that matters.
Tony Crocker wrote:admin wrote:Recent history is all that matters.
Really? The past 5 years of North American snowfall at 85%, 90%, 92%, 68% and 93% included lots of western record lows in 2015 and eastern record lows in 2016. This must prove that the global warming alarmists are right and the North American ski industry is going to hell in a handbasket. Oh wait, 2017 is running at 120+% so far. Sort of like mid-January snowfall the past two seasons.
Either 5 years is credible to prove a permanent weather trend or it isn't.
Tony Crocker wrote:admin wrote:Really? How many Januaries are there from 2011 to 2015?
Five. But the past 5 years include 2016 and 2017 with abundant January snowfall. Admin chooses to ignore that obvious definition since it erodes his assertion.
Marc_C wrote:Wow. You really don't have any comprehension of statistics other than means and averages.
Marc_C wrote:This brings us full circle back to your misunderstanding of the issue. Until you understand why averages don't work, because of how they smooth the data and eliminate the precise patterns of storm cycles in what we're talking about, any further discussion is pointless. Like we have said seemingly 100's of times, we're not the ones making the suggestion - we are saying what long term residents, in particular the local meteorologists, have been telling us ever since we moved here. Our direct experience happens to match what they're saying.
If you have an issue with this, take it up with Kevin Eubanks.
The Utah Avalanche Center wrote:CURRENT CONDITIONS
Maritime. The coastal ranges called, they want their weather back.
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