Western Weather 2016-17

Resort and backcountry skiing and snowboarding in the western US and Canada, including our famous reader-submitted No-Bull Snow Reports.

Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Marc_C » Fri Feb 10, 2017 1:02 pm

Pretty cool dashboard, although it suffers a bit in design and layout for an efficient dashboard, but gets the job done:

http://wbsweather.com/w/index.php
-marc
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Admin » Fri Feb 10, 2017 1:04 pm

Marc_C wrote:Pretty cool dashboard, although it suffers a bit in design and layout for an efficient dashboard, but gets the job done:

http://wbsweather.com/w/index.php


Indeed. Bookmarked, thank you.
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Tony Crocker » Tue Mar 07, 2017 9:09 am

http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/utah

It appears that the mid-March dry spell in Utah will persist for more years than the mid-January dry spell.
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Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Admin » Tue Mar 07, 2017 10:01 am

Tony Crocker wrote:http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/utah
It appears that the mid-March dry spell in Utah will persist for more years than the mid-January dry spell.


That's only because you bought a timeshare.
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby lono » Tue Mar 07, 2017 8:32 pm

The skiing has been truly spectacular up this way for the last 10 days, plenty of time shares available.
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Admin » Tue Mar 07, 2017 8:39 pm

lono wrote:The skiing has been truly spectacular up this way for the last 10 days, plenty of time shares available.


LOL
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Marc_C » Tue Mar 07, 2017 9:21 pm

<snort!>
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Tony Crocker » Tue Mar 07, 2017 11:12 pm

Spectacular here at Whistler too. I'm relieved that my personal snow jinx seems to be limited to Utah.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Admin » Tue Mar 07, 2017 11:13 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:Spectacular here at Whistler too. I'm relieved that my personal snow jinx seems to be limited to Utah.


Those of us actually in Utah are not.
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Tony Crocker » Thu Mar 09, 2017 3:01 pm

MarcC wrote:For about the 10th time - take up your objections about unverified claims with the local meteorologists who have been telling us what we've been telling you for 16 years.

I did e-mail the KSL weather guy MarcC suggested but never got a response.

However, the resident academic authority on Utah snow finally weighed in on the subject in his February 28 blog:
https://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot. ... month.html

Jim Steenburgh, Wasatch Weather Weenies wrote:"There is one other myth worth discussing here and that is the alleged January snowfall minimum. Again, that does not show up in long-term records. It could be that January features more variability from year to year, meaning a more feast or famine snow climate, but in terms of average snowfall, it is in a near dead heat with the other months. I leave the issue of variability for others to investigate. I need to get back to my day job."


I and one other respondent asked for elaboration.
Jim Steenburgh, Wasatch Weather Weenies wrote:I knew I would have to eventually run the numbers. Indeed, March has the smallest standard deviation of monthly snowfall (about 30 inches) of Nov-Apr. The largest standard deviation is actually December (about 46 inches), not January (41 inches). So, "always delivers the snow" might be hyperbole, but March is more consistent on average. Of course, my main complaint is the conclusion that March "is Utah's snowiest month" as suggested by the article.


I responded that I had looked at standard deviations quite awhile ago and found February to have the lowest at both Alta Guard and Alta Collins. Like Jim, I found December to have the highest standard deviation.

In conclusion:
Jim Steenburgh, Wasatch Weather Weenies wrote:On the January drought, I think it is a classic case of confirmation bias based on anecdotal impressions. In other words, it doesn't really exist. You won't hear anyone talking about the "March Drought" over the next few days as they will all be riding their mountain bikes and not worrying about it.

I believe I've hypothesized this for many years. :bow:

Can we finally bury the :dead horse: ?
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Marc_C » Fri Mar 10, 2017 3:22 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:
MarcC wrote:For about the 10th time - take up your objections about unverified claims with the local meteorologists who have been telling us what we've been telling you for 16 years.

I did e-mail the KSL weather guy MarcC suggested but never got a response.

However, the resident academic authority on Utah snow finally weighed in on the subject in his February 28 blog:
https://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot. ... month.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Jim Steenburgh, Wasatch Weather Weenies wrote:"There is one other myth worth discussing here and that is the alleged January snowfall minimum. Again, that does not show up in long-term records. It could be that January features more variability from year to year, meaning a more feast or famine snow climate, but in terms of average snowfall, it is in a near dead heat with the other months. I leave the issue of variability for others to investigate. I need to get back to my day job."


I and one other respondent asked for elaboration.
Jim Steenburgh, Wasatch Weather Weenies wrote:I knew I would have to eventually run the numbers. Indeed, March has the smallest standard deviation of monthly snowfall (about 30 inches) of Nov-Apr. The largest standard deviation is actually December (about 46 inches), not January (41 inches). So, "always delivers the snow" might be hyperbole, but March is more consistent on average. Of course, my main complaint is the conclusion that March "is Utah's snowiest month" as suggested by the article.


I responded that I had looked at standard deviations quite awhile ago and found February to have the lowest at both Alta Guard and Alta Collins. Like Jim, I found December to have the highest standard deviation.

In conclusion:
Jim Steenburgh, Wasatch Weather Weenies wrote:On the January drought, I think it is a classic case of confirmation bias based on anecdotal impressions. In other words, it doesn't really exist. You won't hear anyone talking about the "March Drought" over the next few days as they will all be riding their mountain bikes and not worrying about it.

I believe I've hypothesized this for many years. :bow:

Can we finally bury the :dead horse: ?

Excellent work. I don't disagree with any of it.
None of those questions and answers are what Marc and I have been talking about all these years though.
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Tony Crocker » Tue Mar 14, 2017 11:23 pm

Actually they are. The advice
Marc_C wrote: And they usually tend to happen mid-January. Sometimes there's an outlier in December or February, but over the past 12 years of direct experience, if there's one time period I don't recommend to visitors, it's from about Jan 5 to Jan 25, or thereabouts. That may or may not be true next season, but it is this year, and last,...

has been debunked by the foremost academic authority on Utah snow and should not be taken seriously by any prospective ski vacationer to Utah.

Reminds me of some other famous statements that don't hold up too well in the long run, like (giving equal time here):
President Bush wrote:Mission Accomplished

or
President Obama wrote:ISIS is the Jayvee Team
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Marc_C » Wed Mar 15, 2017 4:27 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:Actually they are. The advice
Marc_C wrote: And they usually tend to happen mid-January. Sometimes there's an outlier in December or February, but over the past 12 years of direct experience, if there's one time period I don't recommend to visitors, it's from about Jan 5 to Jan 25, or thereabouts. That may or may not be true next season, but it is this year, and last,...

has been debunked by the foremost academic authority on Utah snow and should not be taken seriously by any prospective ski vacationer to Utah.

No, he substantiated *your* assertion. You've been saying that a Jan dry spell/drought is no more likely than one in Dec, Feb, or Mar. He agreed with that. So do I and Admin. However, that was never what we suggested. We are talking about the relative distribution of storms within the month of Jan, and we never, ever said this with any intent of repeatable statistical accuracy. That's simply because using average snowfall by day totally smooths out that distribution as one would expect and completely hides any potential patterns. Yes, the statistical analysis - first deciphering the individual storm blocks then doing the time series analysis - is a royal pain and time consuming. This is what you refuse to acknowledge.

And to repeat something from some time ago, look at the terms bolded in my quote above. In the full discussion there are even more qualifiers. You keep wanting us to say "there's an x% chance that your vacation will be dry between <absolute date> and <absolute date>" so that you can haul out your 30 yrs of average data to refute. That is never what we said.
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby socal » Wed Mar 15, 2017 5:03 pm

Take Marc_C seriously, not literally.
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Tony Crocker » Wed Mar 15, 2017 5:28 pm

Whey should I take him seriously when he is proposing a theory with zero meteorological basis and supplying zero evidence to support that theory? The burden of proof is surely upon the person asserting such an unusual climate anomaly.

MarcC wrote:using average snowfall by day totally smooths out that distribution

I only mentioned in passing a couple of years ago a press release that Jan.13 was supposedly Utah's snowiest day of the year by long term average and found that amusing in the context of this topic. But I have repeatedly addressed the dry spell issue in other ways.

If two months have similar averages but one is more prone to big dumps and dry spells and the other to more consistent snowfall, that will show up in the standard deviation being higher in the former case. I looked at that several years ago when the "dry spell" subject first came up. And guess what, when Jim Steenburgh was asked to investigate further, that's exactly the approach he used. I took it a step further and enumerated the number and severity of dry spells in the Alta daily data since 2005. This again HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH AVERAGES.

MarcC told me to take this up with a local Utah resource. I did that and if MarcC doesn't like the answer he is welcome to comment on Steenburgh's blog or send him an e-mail for further inquiry.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
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