Western Weather 2016-17

Resort and backcountry skiing and snowboarding in the western US and Canada, including our famous reader-submitted No-Bull Snow Reports.

Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Tony Crocker » Thu Jan 05, 2017 11:41 pm

I think Utah will be epic next week. And maybe it will be less crowded because esteemed locals have recommended that visitors avoid this time frame. :lol:
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Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby EMSC » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:21 am

Tony,

You should track the claim over the next several years. On Jan 25 simply look on Opensnow or another snow reporting site that shows daily history for 30 days prior. Only would need to do it for a single resort - Alta. By definition if it is snowing its not an inversion going on.
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Marc_C » Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:19 pm

EMSC wrote:Tony,

You should track the claim over the next several years. On Jan 25 simply look on Opensnow or another snow reporting site that shows daily history for 30 days prior. Only would need to do it for a single resort - Alta. By definition if it is snowing its not an inversion going on.

He's tried that, but he still insists on using averages and not doing the necessary exponential time series analysis and two-tailed t-test. Yes, that's a lot of heavy lifting and a royal PITA, which is why I haven't done it, and after all, Tony thinks he's a statistician......(but if he's only using averages of individual days, well......).
Also, I no longer care about Tony's opinion on the subject.
Last edited by Marc_C on Fri Jan 06, 2017 1:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Admin » Fri Jan 06, 2017 1:14 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:Admin and I both strongly recommended that Jason move his trip next week from Tahoe to Utah. Inexplicably, he's just pulled the plug on the trip completely.


That's what happens when you take bad advice from fellow New Yorkers ill-informed about western ski conditions:
http://forum.nyskiblog.com/Reno-td4096288i20.html

Oh, well...more for me. :wink:
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby jamesdeluxe » Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:01 pm

Not all NYers have cancelled their flights west this weekend. :bow:
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby jasoncapecod » Fri Jan 06, 2017 6:11 pm

Just about to book den. But some prick decided to shoot up fll. So I am stuck in fla for another day
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Tony Crocker » Sat Jan 07, 2017 2:08 am

MarcC wrote:He's tried that, but he still insists on using averages

](*,) :bs:

Daily data is available online from Alta Collins since 2005 and from the Snowbird SNOTEL at similar elevation for many more years than that. It seems to me that the burden of proof here lies with the person making the assertion of a highly anomalous weather pattern by calendar date. The data is there and I've been through it a couple of times. See if you can make something different of it using any kind of esoteric stats you want.

Until such demonstration is made, the anecdotal assertion of the mid-January dry spell in Utah can be classified with comments like:
"Hurricane Katrina proves climate change is real," or alternatively,
"Senator Imhofe bringing a snowball onto the floor of the Senate proves climate change is a hoax."
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Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Admin » Sat Jan 07, 2017 9:26 am

Or, "The data is there and I've been through it a couple of times" is like saying that an actuarial equals a real statistician.
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Marc_C » Sat Jan 07, 2017 6:59 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:It seems to me that the burden of proof here lies with the person making the assertion of a highly anomalous weather pattern by calendar date.

In that case your beef is with Mark and Kevin Eubanks, the KSL meterologists, and the KUTV weather guy, and the KTVX weather guy - cause they've been the ones saying it every effing year for the 16 years I've been here.
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Tony Crocker » Sun Jan 08, 2017 3:04 pm

I would trust Jim Steenburgh at U. of Utah way more than a couple of TV weather guys.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Admin » Sun Jan 08, 2017 4:21 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:I would trust Jim Steenburgh at U. of Utah way more than a couple of TV weather guys.


You mean the guy who last winter referred to January as "inversion season?"

It cracks me up how some guy who lives in Glendale, California and who has absolutely zero meteorological training or experience whatsoever, presumes to know more about weather in Utah than people who actually live in Utah, or even Utah meteorologists (not "TV weather guys"). :roll: That is some mighty hubris!
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Tony Crocker » Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:40 pm

Inversions are a subset of dry spells. Inversion season per Steenburgh is mid-December to early February. Dry spells during other months of the year are less likely to result in inversions due to weaker sun and lack of snow on the ground in SLC.

I have previously demonstrated (and I have MORE personal Utah experience than either Marc at this particular time) that dry spells are at least as likely in mid-March as in mid-January. But the Utah locals ignore the March dry spells because they are not accompanied by inversions.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Admin » Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:45 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:I have previously demonstrated


No you haven't, because you're too lazy to do the proper analysis.

Tony Crocker wrote:(and I have MORE personal Utah experience than either Marc at this particular time)


:rotfl:
I've now been living in Utah for precisely 4,376 days. And you?
:bs:

Tony Crocker wrote:that dry spells are at least as likely in mid-March as in mid-January.


No, that's not the discussion at all. The discussion is that we frequently have a prolonged dry spell (with an accompanying inversion) +/- mid-January. You used to argue that inversions aren't more likely in January, but you quietly lost that argument and changed the frame of reference. Now you're trying to change the frame of reference again, and I'm not going to let you do that.
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby SKI-3PO » Sun Jan 08, 2017 7:24 pm

I'm not sure whether or not there is an inversion around SLC in January every year, but I know this discussion happens here each January.
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Tony Crocker » Mon Jan 09, 2017 1:12 pm

admin wrote:The discussion is that we frequently have a prolonged dry spell (with an accompanying inversion) +/- mid-January.

No argument with that.

My point is that Utah has as frequently a prolonged dry spell in mid-March without an accompanying inversion.

From the skier's perspective the impact is identical, maybe worse in March because a melt/freeze is more likely.

From the Salt Lake Valley resident perspective the January dry spell is unpleasant because of the cold temps and smog. The March dry spell is often welcomed for the blue skies and shirtsleeve weather.

admin wrote:I've now been living in Utah for precisely 4,376 days. And you?

I have been skiing in Utah in mid-March in 20 different seasons. My personal experience with dry spells during that time frame is quite extraordinary, and if I took the seat-of-the-pants attitude that the Marcs do, I would assert that it is the driest part of the season and should be avoided by advance bookings.
Marc_C wrote: And they usually tend to happen mid-January. Sometimes there's an outlier in December or February, but over the past 12 years of direct experience, if there's one time period I don't recommend to visitors, it's from about Jan 5 to Jan 25, or thereabouts. That may or may not be true next season, but it is this year, and last,...


Instead I actually looked at the data and found that dry spells contained entirely within December, January and March are similar in frequency. Even February doesn't look all that different now as that was the month with prolonged dry spells in 2016. Consecutive snowless day streaks at Alta Collins since 2005:
Dec: 11,9,8,8,7,7,6,6,6,5,5,4,4,4,4,4,4,3,3,3,3,3
Jan: 11,10,9,9,8,8,8,6,5,5,5,4,4,4,4,4,4,3
Feb: 10,10,9,7,7,6,5,5,5,5,4,4,4,4,4,3,3,3,3,3
Mar: 12,11,10,9,9,8,7,6,6,5,5,5,4,4,4,4,3,3,3,3

From the visiting skier's perspective, a December dry spell is to be feared the most because it results in delayed coverage/opening of terrain.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
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