Western Weather 2017-18

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Re: Western Weather 2017-18

Postby Tony Crocker » Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:32 pm

Current roundup of North America ski conditions: http://bestsnow.net/seas18.htm

It's a spectacular start in the northern regions, not so much farther south.
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Re: Western Weather 2017-18

Postby lono » Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:22 am

Yesterdays skin up revealed a more consolidated snow pack 10 "- 15" at the base elevation 4500'. Summit and northern aspects are holding 20" - 30". WMR still says chairs turn Dec. 7 .
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Re: Western Weather 2017-18

Postby lono » Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:17 am

Saturday the parking lot was filled as all sorts of snow lovers swormed the hill. I checked out the new installation of chair 5 and East Rim skied great. Snow forcast tonite then warming.
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Re: Western Weather 2017-18

Postby lono » Tue Nov 21, 2017 5:58 pm

he weekend storm split and delivered nada, so Sunday I did a silly/stupid tour south of rt.2 near Stanton Creek.A solid snowpack of 20" to 40" from 4000' up to 5500'. Mondays snow began at 10am when I started up. Wet and heavy the skiing was still fun.Today looked like maybe the last decent day before the warm spell.A beautiful skin with breaking clouds and filtered light was rewarded with gorilla turns through smooth styro~snow.
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Re: Western Weather 2017-18

Postby kingslug » Mon Nov 27, 2017 2:27 pm

So..how much snow does Alta Snowbird need to be..ski able? I'll be there the 13th and its not looking promising. Never seen it like this.
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Re: Western Weather 2017-18

Postby jamesdeluxe » Mon Nov 27, 2017 5:52 pm

kingslug wrote:So..how much snow does Alta Snowbird need to be..ski able? I'll be there the 13th and its not looking promising. Never seen it like this.

This was the worst I ever experienced it on a fly-in during the second week of December -- doesn't look so bad right now! :lol:

I'm still 17 days away from first turns there and not ready to start making alternate plans.
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Re: Western Weather 2017-18

Postby Tony Crocker » Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:47 pm

No question 2011-12 was the worst Utah early season of the past 30 years.

November 2011 had 58.5 inches snow at Alta Collins, but only 2.5 inches Dec. 1-11 and 20 inches for the entire month of December.

So far November 2017 has had 22.5 inches and there will be no more than 6 inches the rest of the month per OpenSnow. An average Dec. 1-13 would be 40 inches, which would put Alta on Dec. 13 in a similar position as in 2011. Given Snowbird's rugged terrain, odds are not great for adequate coverage there. Alta skis quite well on a 3-foot base. Alta shows its day-by-day snowfall for the season here: https://www.alta.com/conditions/weather ... ll-history

Alternate plans? Targhee is the obvious choice, 5 hours drive north, so no worry on your flight to SLC. You can wait on the car rental if you don't have one. If you're not committed to lodging yet, don't. It's never a problem scoring last minute lodging in mid-December.

Presumably admin or others in his posse will inform us of the reality in LCC as the season progresses. If admin is still camping in southern Utah on the weekends, that will be a good clue what to do!
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Re: Western Weather 2017-18

Postby kingslug » Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:43 am

There are 48 of us coming in. Staying at Snowbird. My wife is getting a car as she can't ski. Small tear near ankle. So I'm committed. A drive North is not out of the question. Hopefully it works out like it usually does. Fly in and it dumps.
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Re: Western Weather 2017-18

Postby Marc_C » Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:35 pm

kingslug wrote:So..how much snow does Alta Snowbird need to be..ski able?

On the groomers, about a 20" compacted base. Obviously the trails with snowmaking will fare the best.
Natural cover trails need a bit more. For something rocky like Backside or Ballroom at Alta or the Cirque at Snowbird, 48" is the general heuristic.
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Re: Western Weather 2017-18

Postby Tony Crocker » Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:11 pm

Quote from Open Snow Utah: "Really, really, really bad trends in the models over the past 48 hours." Two weeks is of course beyond the reliability window, but all the models agree on the bad news right now.

I'd say both James and kingslug have fairly clear decisions to bail to Targhee at this point. Snowbird is a minefield with less than a 4-foot base, which is clearly not happening in the next 2 weeks. Even if it starts snowing when you arrive, the base will be too thin to open much immediately, particularly since snow stability will be horrible after the long dry spell.

As for the group of 48, I'd recommend trying to rain check that lodging reservation to April or next season. I'm sure it would be harder to move it to a prime winter month.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
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Re: Western Weather 2017-18

Postby kingslug » Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:19 am

Wish it was my decision to do so. As it is I think we are stuck as our group leader isn't very supportive of ideas. And I'm sure I'll get the usual.."we'll see what happens". I know what will happen. And Snowbird will reopen with a few manmade trails and stick you with the tickets. But i'll see what I can do
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Re: Western Weather 2017-18

Postby Marc_C » Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:23 am

kingslug wrote:As it is I think we are stuck as our group leader isn't very supportive of ideas. And I'm sure I'll get the usual.."we'll see what happens". I know what will happen. And Snowbird will reopen with a few manmade trails and stick you with the tickets. But i'll see what I can do

Sounds like a good reason not to go on those group trips.
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Re: Western Weather 2017-18

Postby kingslug » Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:24 am

I have some things the wife and I can do besides ski. Any recommendations. We'll be staying at Snowbird/
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Re: Western Weather 2017-18

Postby Tony Crocker » Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:12 am

There is not a lot you can do staying at Snowbird. You have to suck it up, blow off that lodging cost and go somewhere else. That means Targhee for skiing or southern Utah for the long list of places admin has documented well on camping trips.

I'm biased against group trips but have been on some successful ones. Zermatt 2014 with Kingslug's group was a standout. In fairness Snowbird mid-December is not a terrible speculation. Anywhere in mid-December carries risk and Targhee and Whistler are the only places with better early season odds than LCC.

And I would send these weather forecasts to the trip leader anyway. Or have Jackie do it since she has been a trip leader herself. The more active plan would be to send those forecasts to everyone going on the trip to apply more collective pressure. This is costing people $ and vacation time. They should be pulling out all the stops to avoid this train wreck.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
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Re: Western Weather 2017-18

Postby Marc_C » Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:31 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:And I would send these weather forecasts to the trip leader anyway. Or have Jackie do it since she has been a trip leader herself. The more active plan would be to send those forecasts to everyone going on the trip to apply more collective pressure. This is costing people $ and vacation time. They should be pulling out all the stops to avoid this train wreck.

Also, make sure the trip leader knows that Snowbird opened for 2 days then closed indefinitely. Alta has pushed back their opening day twice now. Other Utah areas have TBD opening dates. Park City has one run open; Brighton around 6. There was some chatter of a pattern change in another 10 days or so, but that's died down since the start of the week.
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