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Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 5:40 am
by kingslug
Have a chance to bail..Might take it as this looks bad.

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:54 am
by Tony Crocker
Easy call. Do it and come back in the spring.

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:56 am
by jamesdeluxe
I likewise bailed. As Tony mentions, even Targhee is looking dry for the next two weeks and I'm not sure I'd want to spend more than a day or so there without powder to say nothing of the four-hour drive in each direction, ugh. I ate my SLC flight and cashed in a FF award for the same time period to Zurich, where I'll actually get more ski time (five vs. four days due to being able to ski on both arrival and departure days) and better conditions.
:bow:

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:47 pm
by Tony Crocker
=D> =D> =D> to both kingslug and jamesdeluxe.

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:18 am
by kingslug
And I'm not losing out on much money. Figure we'll come in April when rates are low. SnowBird done good.

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:58 pm
by Tony Crocker
Snowbird partial refunded? Makes sense for goodwill to a recurring group customer.

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:56 am
by baldyskier
Tony Crocker wrote:=D> =D> =D> to both kingslug and jamesdeluxe.

And nice work on your part, Tony, for an early heads up that a change in plans may need to be considered. This board is valuable! Now, please bring back some normal Little Cottonwood Canyons winter conditions in time for my February, 2018 trip!

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:30 pm
by Tony Crocker
Even in worst case 1977 LCC was OK by February. In Colorado OTOH the 1976-77 drought lasted through the end of January and the 1980-81 drought through the end of February. No surprise 1981 was when Colorado areas made their first big time investments in snowmaking.

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:07 pm
by kingslug
Tony Crocker wrote:Snowbird partial refunded? Makes sense for goodwill to a recurring group customer.

Well its a credit which I'll use in April.so they make out no matter what.

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:44 pm
by Tony Crocker
Rarely do ski operations refund. Rain checking to a later date is eminently fair IMHO.

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:41 am
by kingslug
And thankfully we cancelled as its now dumping at Stowe..so off we go this weekend. Imagine being stuck at Snowbird reading Stowe snow reports. Although I do remember one year this happend around March. ,

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:41 pm
by Marc_C
kingslug wrote:And thankfully we cancelled as its now dumping at Stowe..so off we go this weekend. Imagine being stuck at Snowbird reading Stowe snow reports. Although I do remember one year this happend around March. ,

The worst that has happened in my 17 years in Utah was a 27 day inversion circa 2003 - essentially all of January was dry and it was mid-40's/spring conditions at the resorts.

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:22 am
by jamesdeluxe
Marc_C wrote:The worst that has happened in my 17 years in Utah was a 27 day inversion circa 2003 - essentially all of January was dry and it was mid-40's/spring conditions at the resorts.

IIRC, that was the year we had an Epicski Gathering in SLC just after new years and it rained all the way to the top of Snowbird, to say nothing of Snowbasin, where the entire mountain was a tilted skating rink. Remember, BobMc?
#-o

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:44 pm
by Tony Crocker
2003 tied with 2015 at 30.5 inches as the lowest January snowfall in 37 years or Alta Collins records. In the Alta Guard UDOT records going back to 1946, the ONE INCH in January 1961 is the only one lower than 2003 and 2015. https://utahavalanchecenter.org/alta-monthly-snowfall

Since January 2003, only the following ski season months have had less snow:
21 inches in November 2009
20 inches in December 2011
23.5 inches in November 2017

December 2017 stands at 20 inches and two small storms totaling maybe a foot are predicted between now and Christmas.

Where would 55 inches Nov+Dec stand? It would be the lowest since the Alta Collins station was started in 1980-81. The worst was that first year at 34+34=68 inches. The next lowest years were 58+13.5=71.5 inches in 1986-87 and 58.5+20=78.5 inches in 2011-12. Two other years are between 90 and 100 inches and the other 32 seasons are over 100 inches before Jan. 1. An average 18 inches during Christmas Week would still put this year short of 2011-12.

Pre Alta Collins, 1976-77 at AltaGuard is of course the extreme case at 13.5+17=30.5 inches. Other years under 100 inches:
1962-63 had 31+17=48 inches
1959-60 had 22+39.5=61 inches
1958-59 had 38+47.5=85.5 inches
1956-57 had 36+50=86 inches
1954-55 had 37+53=90 inches
Notice the 5 worst years from 1946-1976 were clustered within a 9 year time span. I'll bet people were talking about the "early season dry spell" then. Only one of the other 4 seasons was above average for Nov+Dec.

This is a classic example of weather volatility. The typical skier might think 10 years is a nice round number and indicative of expected weather. From 1954-55 through 1963-64 Alta averaged 107 inches of snow before January 1. That's 66% of the actual 71 year average. Maybe it was climate change. :stir:

But the bottom line is that 59 of those 71 seasons saw at least 100 inches before January 1, still an enviable record.

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:19 pm
by EMSC
Tony Crocker wrote:Where would 55 inches Nov+Dec stand? It would be the lowest since the Alta Collins station was started in 1980-81. The worst was that first year at 34+34=68 inches.


So even if Alta gets up to an extra foot above what is predicted, it would still put the early season as the driest there since the early sixties? That's pretty bad, especially considering the warmth limiting snowmaking as well.

Not quite as bad for warmth over this way plus a few inches every now and again helps a bit for Colo. Still a very bad early season this year any way you slice it.