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Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:40 pm
by Tony Crocker
I fully agree that the situation in the Southwest is unprecedented, even in 1976-77. But that's one out of 8 regions I analyze.

As for the Northeast I get that it's too cold to ski now, but there is full coverage and the region is already ahead of the game due to the good skiing in mid-December.

Unlike the Southwest, Utah and I-70 have some natural base, just that it's more like early December than early January so not yet enough to open more challenging terrain. But it will only take an average January to have decent skiing in February for these regions, The same is true for southern Oregon and Idaho. The Sierra you never know. It could dump 6 feet later this month or it could suck for a couple more months like 2015.

Overall it would take some ongoing sustained dry weather to push this season as low as 2011-12 or 2014-15.

Tony Crocker on Dec. 15 wrote:An average 18 inches during Christmas Week at Alta Collins would still put this year short of 2011-12.

That's exactly what happened with the Dec. 23-24 storm. Nov-Dec total was 74 inches, just ahead of 1986-87 and just behind 2011-12. So probably sixth lowest since 1946, with worst four being 1976-77, 1980-81, 1962-63 and 1959-60.

I note admin took a pass on skiing the weekend between Christmas and New Year's. I wouldn't necessarily see it here, but it's not on FB either.

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:03 am
by kingslug
I think Im going to bail and eat the money. Skiing frozen groomers will drive me crazy and I'll just end up spending more stupid money out there. Jackie will go so its not a total loss. I'll go on a Vermont odyssey. Her cousin an I can drive and ski all over VT which is 100% covered. Maybe I can get something like a credit for airfare but whatever. I'm not going through what I went through in Solden.

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:48 am
by Tony Crocker
Probably a smart move to bail on Vail. You should go to the Alps this time, supposedly best early season there in 20 years. We are headed that way Jan. 17 - Feb. 4.

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:11 pm
by kingslug
That would be cool but ive ways wanted to hit a buch of vt spots. Never been to mrg or burke. Figure we could hit stowe,smuggs,jay,bush,mrg..
I never lived close enough for this.

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:38 am
by kingslug
Have you seen this: http://www.skipass.com/news/157729-le-c ... eanor.html
A little sporty out there.

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:04 am
by Tony Crocker
Liz showed me that swinging chairlift video from the Vorarlberg yesterday.

Kingslug's new location definitely gives him a better shot at hitting the best of the Northeast on short notice.

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:11 am
by jamesdeluxe
We're looking forward to the first Utah TR in 2.5 weeks.

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:27 am
by kingslug
I've been tracking Vail weather. Getting a possible nice hit but then back to warm cold. Has to be killing them. Back bowls all closed and all man made on the front. Hope this storm delivers as Mrs Slug will be there.
On the home front a nasty warm up with a batch of rain due this weekend but then back to cold and snowy. Hit Stowe last Sunday and it was a bit sporty. Very cold and slick. But in the trees where I do not venture alone I heard it was up to 4 feet deep. An instructor said it was downright deadly if you fell in a tree well.

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:26 pm
by Tony Crocker
jamesdeluxe wrote:We're looking forward to the first Utah TR in 2.5 weeks.

You might be waiting a while. It's still low tide and since we've passed January 5 I guess we can't expect significant improvement until at least January 25 according to renowned local Utah weather authority MarcC.

kingslug wrote:I've been tracking Vail weather. Getting a possible nice hit but then back to warm cold. Has to be killing them. Back bowls all closed and all man made on the front. Hope this storm delivers as Mrs Slug will be there.

2011-12 had similarly restricted terrain at Vail into January: 28% Jan. 7, 30% Jan.15, 44% Jan.21 and at last 84% Jan. 31. This year rates to be tougher because Vail's season snowfall on Jan. 7, 2012 was 80 inches while this year on Jan. 8 it was 59 inches though a similar 27% open. In 2012 Vail got 58 inches of snow during the rest of January to get most of the back bowls open by the end of the month. Getting the bowls open not too far into February is a reasonable speculation, but the Dogs' trip Jan. 20-27 looks too early.

With any kind of close to normal winter I think the timing of that Dogs' trip to Vail is ideal. January is less busy than many other times at Vail, plus the snow preservation in the bowls is much better than later in the season.

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:34 am
by kingslug
And now Vail is starting to get snow..Mrs Slug is less than happy I cancelled and will lose 1600.00. Can't win. VT is due for rain, then freeze, then snow. So it will be the usual mixed bag by the time I get there. Have to try to sell my spot tonight at the DD happy hour.
Anyone want to go to VAIL...?

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:13 pm
by EMSC
BTW Vail is planning to open small portions of the back bowls and Blue Sky as of tomorrow. It can't be very much of them though since total acreage will still be just under 2000 acres.

Some more ok-ish recent snows this week. Looks like rather small snow possibilities for roughly the next week before more decent storms are forecast for Colo by the 19th-ish.

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:08 pm
by kingslug
Omg did i screw up. Vt is a mess and vail went up to 150 trails and some back bowls open..what..did i do. Ate 1600 plus had tyo pop 600 for hotel in stowe to ski god knows what..i never screw up like this..utterly miserable now..very very bad week now this..

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:13 pm
by Tony Crocker
Vail 48% open (2,530 acres) for MLK weekend doesn't sound all that great to me. It's still less than what's open on an average Dec. 15 (57%). They got 14 inches in the past 3 days, which explains the bump in open terrain. Not much snow is expected for the coming week but the models are showing more snow coming next weekend per Open Snow.

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:03 pm
by Tony Crocker
I've heard that kingslug is back on the Vail trip. While it may not be up to its usual standard, Vail will nonetheless be better than the Northeast after this week's rain/freeze. I will have an updated progress report tomorrow, but yesterday the leading Vermont areas had fallen into the 2/3 open range from the 90+% last week. So the rain was indeed quite destructive.

Vail is well covered by a 3-4 foot base. It is possible that one more storm a week from now could get Vail into the 75% range.

Re: Western Weather 2017-18

PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:08 pm
by berkshireskier
Tony Crocker wrote:I've heard that kingslug is back on the Vail trip. While it may not be up to its usual standard, Vail will nonetheless be better than the Northeast after this week's rain/freeze. I will have an updated progress report tomorrow, but yesterday the leading Vermont areas had fallen into the 2/3 open range from the 90+% last week. So the rain was indeed quite destructive.

Vail is well covered by a 3-4 foot base. It is possible that one more storm a week from now could get Vail into the 75% range.


Yea, it was almost 60 degrees in New England on Friday with torrential rains. Truly tropical air and it felt like a late-Spring rainstorm. The warm air and rain went all the way into Canada. Completely wiped out the natural snow (7 to 8 inches) around here and did a number on manmade snow too. It was 54 degrees when I went to bed Friday night and it was 21 when I woke up on Saturday morning. Been very cold all weekend long. Everything has frozen solid again. UGH.