Interesting story!

[berkshireskier]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/vail- ... yptr=yahoo

[Tony Crocker]

I'm confused. How does one reconcile this:

destination guest visitation was "much lower" than anticipated in the pre-holiday period. As a result of its pre-holiday miss, the company said it now expects full-year resort reported earning before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) to be "slightly below the low end" its previously provided guidance range of $718 million to $750 million. Chief Executive Rob Katz said he believes the weak pre-holiday visitation resulted from concerns from two prior years of poor pre-holiday conditions at U.S. resorts, and the lack of a pick up in short-term bookings as expected. Over the holiday, Katz said results were in line with expectations, expect at Whistler Blackcomb and the Tahoe resorts.

with this:

Separately, the company reported season-to-date lift ticket revenue growth for North American mountain resorts of 12.2%, ski school revenue up 9.5% and total skier visits up 16.9%.

What is the definition of "season-to-date" in the latter quote, if not pre-holiday plus holiday?

I wonder how the revenue from season passes sold in spring of the prior season is recognized in reported income?

And finally, I wonder if the advent of the Ikon Pass has put a dent in Epic pass sales?

MTN hit a record high of $301.42 on 9/4/2018, but is now at $188. That's a big hit but the timing is in line with the slide of the market overall.

[EMSC]

What is the definition of "season-to-date" in the latter quote, if not pre-holiday plus holiday?

I wonder how the revenue from season passes sold in spring of the prior season is recognized in reported income?

And finally, I wonder if the advent of the Ikon Pass has put a dent in Epic pass sales?

MTN hit a record high of $301.42 on 9/4/2018, but is now at $188. That's a big hit but the timing is in line with the slide of the market overall.

I think the correlation is that destination big spenders stayed home in Nov and early Dec not trusting there would be snow (couple of bad early seasons lately) while the locals hit the slopes hard and heavy during the great early season that actually occurred - which is very true in Colo portion of Vail Inc anyway.

Pass revenue has to be recognized over time as the services are provided. Eg some form of pro-rating over the whole season for which passes are valid. I can think of at least a couple ways they could calculate it that would hold up to an audit. Also why you don't see huge revenue reported in spring quarterly reporting. They get the cash, but can't count it as revenue yet.

Also have not heard of any big dents to Vail Inc in pass sales since Ikon came on scene. So, If any, it would have to be pretty small.

Vail's plunge was far more than the overall market swoon though. And Market has recovered a fair bit already. As I recall the market did not like Vail's fall quarter numbers at all. Looked to the wall streeter's that the pick up of CB, Okemo and Sunapee was surprisingly negative to earnings, dropping their expectations long term on performance. Tough to see that one have a real answer as to if it was timing of the purchases or an actual bad deal for Vail for several more Q's. It felt a bit like overreach to me strategy wise for Vail, but Katz is a very sharp guy and I'd be pretty surprised to see him make that kind of fundamental mistake.

[Tony Crocker]

I've had offline conversations. A fairly knowledgeable eastern source thinks Vail overpaid even for Whistler and Stowe. I'm sure Vail overpaid for the Mueller properties. Crested Butte is a poor financial bet IMHO. It's expert weighted, with said expert terrain often not open until Februay and some of it not open at all. Intermediate terrain is very modest by Colorado standards and the Muellers got shot down when they tried to expand it. If you want to go remote in Colorado, Telluride is a superior mountain resort experience in nearly every way. The eastern source says Okemo is worth something but Sunapee very little.

[berkshireskier]

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/ear ... yptr=yahoo

People ARE skiing (and spending money at the Vail resorts)! No doubt it helps when you have good snow conditions at most of your mountains.

[snowave]

I've had offline conversations. A fairly knowledgeable eastern source thinks Vail overpaid even for Whistler and Stowe. I'm sure Vail overpaid for the Mueller properties. Crested Butte is a poor financial bet IMHO. It's expert weighted, with said expert terrain often not open until Februay and some of it not open at all. Intermediate terrain is very modest by Colorado standards and the Muellers got shot down when they tried to expand it. If you want to go remote in Colorado, Telluride is a superior mountain resort experience in nearly every way. The eastern source says Okemo is worth something but Sunapee very little.

I finally made it to CB a few weeks ago, and absolutely loved it.. as did my wife, a lower intermediate skier. (We went back to Telluride in late January, and I became a little disenchanted with it after myself being so wowed last year. It really does lack good mid to high intermediate terrain, and it is kinda a PIA to jump around to all the little pods/lifts on the mountain). We both felt that CB had a very nice variety of blue runs, and I loved the black groomers. It's skis much bigger than its stated acreage, IMO.

Locals at CB said they noticed a big increase in weekend numbers this year, with some of that due to good snow, but many Epic passholders tired of the I-70 crowds. As a matter of fact, we talked to quite a few Epic passholders on a carryover weekend Monday that prefer the 4 hr drive to CB over the 2-3 hr drive to Summit Co, and super long lift lines there... vs the minimal lines at CB.

All that being said, I agree with your assessment about usual lack of early season snow at CB, (and often Telluride, for that matter). CB is also in need of some serious lift upgrades, of which they are beginning next year. I don't know enough about the financials of the deal to comment on whether or not they paid too much, but I could see it being a nice addition for the company in the long run, offering a different experience than the avg Vail resort.

Btw, here is another interesting article about the Epic/IKON passes and skier visits, etc.
https://coloradosun.com/2019/03/12/epic ... telluride/