Alta, Mar. 7, 2020

Tony Crocker

Administrator
Staff member
I joined admin and company on a Saturday that bore some resemblance to the prior Saturday at Fernie. Both days were overcast with some wind after a big warmup. Alta was much more manageable as it was 40+F at the base as opposed to the bulletproof 25F at Fernie. Also, perhaps 30% of Alta was still winter snow, though much of that is at the end of the High T, which no one even considered testing. Late in the day I skied near the Ballroom rope line and found decent packed powder, skiing near the trees to avoid the larger moguls.

My 2019 Tesla Model S has 1/3 more range and 50% faster supercharging speed than my prior 2016 model, so I was willing to bring it to Utah. Alta’s prime parking spot closest to the lifts and ticket office is reserved for electric charging and was still available at 10AM Saturday.
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The bump in charge from 30% to 70% while I was skiing Alta made it unnecessary to charge overnight at the Cliff Lodge during my timeshare week.

I met admin, Amy, BobbyD and Camille at Baldy Brews ~10:30 and we skied nearly all groomers with the conditions. That meant more grooming than usual, such as Race Course from Collins. We also heard that Alta had groomed to the top of Catherine’s for perhaps the second or third time in the past 25 years per BobbyD.

On the way to Supreme we stopped at a birdfeeder in the woods.
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There was a porcupine the size of a beach ball high in a nearby tree.
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From Supreme we had this view of East Castle.
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Highlight of the day was the lunch at Rustler Lodge.
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I’m having tomato soup and the soft shell crab BLT sandwich special.

After lunch we visited briefly with black lab patrol dogs in training.
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On Friday when I arrived admin went off for a solid half an hour about the crowd impact of the Ikon Pass upon Alta. So he was delighted to see one of the locals passing out these stickers.
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One of these is now affixed to the back of one of admin’s skis.

What do we know about the Ikon and Utah skier visits that we didn't know last spring and summer? The appropriate comparisons are between the very good 2018-19 season vs. the even better 2016-17 season, not the poor 2017-18 season

Last spring Alta said visits vs. 2016-17 were up 6% overall, destination visitors shifted from day/multiday tickets to Ikon but the largest increase was from locals. Snowbird said visits were similar to 2016-17. But later Ski Utah said:
Utah’s 5.125 million skier days for 2018-19 were 12% higher than the state’s previous record of 4.58 million in 2016-17 and up 24% from the 2017-18 season.
So the big Ikon increases at Solitude and Deer Valley plus ongoing Epic Pass visits to Park City play a role here too.

FYI Mammoth skier visits in 2018-19 exceeded 2016-17 by 10%, a result I did not expect though I had heard local comments and observed a very busy Memorial Day weekend.

As for my own observations during Iron Blosam week:
1) 2019 was busy, but we had 4 feet of new snow during the week and I didn't see an obvious difference vs. other recent powder days.
2) 2020 does look different. This was at best a 10th percentile ski day in snow quality by the high standards of Alta, yet the parking lot was full, as was the lift maze at Collins past 10AM. There were also parked cars on the road outside Iron Blosam that I don't recall seeing before.

I can speculate on few other points;
prior thread":1v4cuzjb said:
Rockies skier visits were a record 24.0 million, well beyond prior highs of 22.3M in 2015-16, 21.7M in 2016-17 and 21.3M in 2007-08.
While the Rockies are on a long term uptrend at the expense of other regions, Ikon/Epic surely have a role in breaking the prior record by that much.

It is well known that advance bookings for the next ski season are stronger coming off a good prior season vs. a bad one. So 2018-19's numbers coming off the bad 2017-18 season and exceeding 2016-17 (and in particular by a lot in Utah), the advent of the Ikon likely had a role there too.

For 2020 we have multiple factors pushing attendance up.
1) We are coming off a prior good season.
2) 2018-19 was the first year of the Ikon and word of mouth has surely increased sales further. I have heard this specifically is true for Ikon sales in SoCal.

A few areas are trying to manage the situation. A-Basin switching from unlimited Epic to 5-day Ikon is the most obvious. For 2021 base Ikon passholders will have to pay another $150 to get Aspen and Jackson.

Admin says Alta's Ikon contract is 3 years. I suspect there will some kind of adjustment after that, maybe as at Aspen/Jackson though I know many of the locals want a complete pullout. Alta has had RFID for along time. They should know exactly where their skier visits are coming from.
 
nice car Tony - you sure know how to enjoy the good life! explain the license plate to me though?

good to see the powder posse and yourself in good spirits and enjoying life

i haven't ventured to UT this year as I have work and personal obligations preventing me from doing so , but the reports of crowds at Alta has been a deterrent. as we appreciate your logical look at facts, you do mention increases from locals vs. out of state epic ski pass holders. the passes do make skiing MUCH more affordable if you're doing a lot of skiing but the two other facts I believe contributing to lift lines are 1.) better equipment 2.) social media marketing (FB/IG) . if you wanted to rip through 2 -3 ft of powder on 205's that required HARD work in the gym during the off season. now.........an intermediate skier can rip on some fat skis without even being bothered at the gym. 2.) everyone is drooling when they see the goodie room on FB thanks to the marketing. Alta shows some of the most incredible shots a skier could ever dream of skiing. everyone from around the country can't help but want that after seeing it. end result: lift lines at Collins on a 10% day..........

on another note, I skied lowly Snow Valley Friday and Sunday. It's currently 40 deg F at my house (5200 ft ) and I expect this week of rain to end the season here IMO........

cheers
 
The car is blue and flash relates to both speed and electric.

There is also the astronomy phenomenon of the green or occasionally blue flash at sunset over an extra clear horizon.

This morning OpenSnow’s computer models predicted nearly all rain at Snow Valley and Mt. High, some snow at Big Bear and up to 18 inches at Baldy.

OpenSnow does not have a hands-on forecaster for SoCal. My impression is that whatever model they use over projects Baldy much of the time. It is true that Baldy can get much more precipitation than the other places from a direct storm hit off the Pacific. However if the rain/snow line is marginal, that tends to be better for Big Bear, farther inland and colder.
 
jojo_obrien":2281ge8r said:
if you wanted to rip through 2 -3 ft of powder on 205's that required HARD work in the gym during the off season. now.........an intermediate skier can rip on some fat skis without even being bothered at the gym.
This is not a recent phenomenon. I plead guilty to being a very inconsistent powder skier on the old equipment, and thus was an early adopter for buying powder skis in 1996. I do believe that the advent of more versatile skis is big part of the explanation for Jackson Hole doubling skier visits over the past 20 years when overall growth in US skier visits was only 10%.

So the recent development is the Rockies stealing market share from other regions. This comes from:
1) Local population growth, including immigrants from other states specifically attracted to outdoor lifestyle pursuits.
2) The multiarea passes shifting some skier days from local to destination skiing.

Most crowding situations have a tipping point, where a modest increment exacerbates lift line/parking problems. A-Basin was the first to change pass affiliation as a partial response.
 
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