The big Corona Virus Shutdown

Tony Crocker":2r3cq6h8 said:
New Zealand shut its borders on March 19. That's the same day California issued its stay-at-home order. Contact tracing worked in NZ as there had not yet been much community transmission yet, though the internal lockdown was also more stringent than ours.

berkshireskier":2r3cq6h8 said:
In the case of the coronavirus, we should have done this in early January, at the latest or probably even in December 2019.
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I agree that for the US it might have needed to be that early.
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The NZ Health Minister is in strife for bending the rules.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... down-rules" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Took the family to the beach for the day.

New Zealand is in a perfect place in many ways as far as containing a virus goes. Small population, island nation, low population density etc.
Their economy relies heavily on tourism however so the economic fallout could be more damaging in their country than other countries with more diverse economies.

Meanwhile in OZ we're going ok so far.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... australia/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
49 deaths and a relatively small number of serious cases. Very little community spread at this stage and hospitals appear to be not overwhelmed. We may avoid a hard lock down perhaps. The problem with good numbers like this is the punters could get complacent. A week or so after this long weekend could be telling.
 
Interesting story about an analysis of where flights from China landed in the US during the critical period:

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/disaster- ... d=70025470

As I've stated before (and IMHO), the only hope we had to contain the spread of the virus in this country was to shut down all the borders and shut down ALL flights into the US (and cruise ships and other modes of transport) at a very early point in time, once we became aware of the possibility of this viral pandemic. I hope we learn this lesson when another such situation arises in the future.
 
Looking at where the volume of cases are, I have to guess that more coronavirus came into the East Coast from Europe than came into the West Coast from China, even though the earliest cases were West Coast. New York of course is the perfect storm for international travel plus super high density.

Australia looks impressive with clear cut decline in new cases vs. more of a leveling off here. Per capita testing, case counts and deaths are similar in Australia and New Zealand.
 
Tony Crocker":1sbherut said:
Looking at where the volume of cases are, I have to guess that more coronavirus came into the East Coast from Europe than came into the West Coast from China, even though the earliest cases were West Coast. New York of course is the perfect storm for international travel plus super high density.

Aystralia looks impressive with clear cut decline in new cases vs. more of a leveling off here.
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I read today an analysis that came to the same conclusion. Based on DNA testing, the researchers believed that most of the east coast (and NYC) Covid-19 cases originated from infected travellers coming from Europe (I'm too lazy to find the link right now to this story). There was the famous (or infamous) case of the Biogen conference in Boston in February where, it is believed, ONE infected conference participant from Italy infected 73 other people who were also at the conference. And then those 73 infected individuals infected a multitude of other people.
 
So what is everyone's take on the virus at this point? Is it as bad as you thought? Experts now seem to be predicting a nationwide death toll of 60,000 (considerably better than the 2 million predicted at one point.) If Mammoth opened today, would you go? I think I might.
 
WAY too early to think about opening everything back up, as we're just now starting to make some progress. I think we are just now beginning to see the corner up ahead, but we are not there yet. I think keeping everything shut down through at least the end of the month is the best plan, and then re-evaluate to possibly ease restrictions in graduated steps.
 
Yeah, I never meant to imply that I thought there was a chance they would open. More along the lines of what would be your own, personal comfort level in regards to the risk of being exposed. I guess I could rephrase and ask "If the ski resorts opened May 1st would you go?"
 
As one who looked diligently for ways to ski as long as possible, what one might do personally is different from what a resort should do.

China Peak was comfortably socially distanced on March 19, but surely would not have been two days later on a Saturday. It would be impossible if anyplace as high profile as Mammoth opened.

A long list of things we want to do aren't going to be feasible without massive testing and contact tracing being implemented first. The US is way behind the curve on that, so not too likely while there is still decent enough snow this season to consider skiing.
 
111 days after this quote...
The good news from this is that the 2% mortality stat for COVID-19 is probably much overstated. With all the unexplained community transmission and lack of testing, it seems obvious that there are a ton of unreported cases, so the denominator of the mortality rate is much understated.
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I wish the wishful thinking in this disaster of a thread were true, but the current US Case Fatality Rate is 4.5%.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

On another note, you people and your conspiracy theories are wonderful when the putative conspiracy is a moon-landing or secret messages hidden on silly things or similar...But your conspiracy theories about public health will actually get people killed. Please cut it out (if perhaps you can manage to control yourself).
 
Article above":2l9ww0km said:
Differences in mortality numbers can be caused by:

Differences in the number of people tested: With more testing, more people with milder cases are identified. This lowers the case-fatality ratio.
Demographics: For example, mortality tends to be higher in older populations.
Characteristics of the healthcare system: For example, mortality may rise as hospitals become overwhelmed and have fewer resources.
Other factors, many of which remain unknown.
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Since the US has been a laggard on testing, its case fatality ratio will be overstated. No surprise it's much lower in countries with aggressive contact tracing, like South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. On the Diamond Princess cruise ship, where everyone on board was tested and which surely had a more elderly than average demographic, the case fatality rate was 1.8%.

I will still be surprised if the true number is over 1%. I'm more concerned that a significant number of survivors will have permanent lung damage. Two of the people I know that got it in March and recovered are still around half normal lung capacity. Their doctors say they will recover it gradually, but I think the disease is too new for them to really know that.
 
ShiftyRider":25froc71 said:
111 days after this quote...
The good news from this is that the 2% mortality stat for COVID-19 is probably much overstated. With all the unexplained community transmission and lack of testing, it seems obvious that there are a ton of unreported cases, so the denominator of the mortality rate is much understated.
Click to expand...
I wish the wishful thinking in this disaster of a thread were true, but the current US Case Fatality Rate is 4.5%.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

On another note, you people and your conspiracy theories are wonderful when the putative conspiracy is a moon-landing or secret messages hidden on silly things or similar...But your conspiracy theories about public health will actually get people killed. Please cut it out (if perhaps you can manage to control yourself).
Click to expand...
(Now 262 days after)
Clicking the link TODAY...
"This page was last updated on Friday, December 4, 2020 at 3:00 AM EST.
"United States... 2.0%"

Wikipedia should hyperlink to the moronic blowhards in this FTO thread.
(ref. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect)
 
Case mortality rate remains problematic for COVID-19 because there are so many asymptomatic cases. In that chart Mexico tops the list at 9.5%. Do we believe that the virus is way more virulent in Mexico or that treatment is massively incompetent vs. countries like Indonesia or Brazil? I don't think so. The explanation is Mexico's 38.7% positivity rate, which means testing is hopelessly deficient and a huge number of cases are not being identified.

Mexico is the worst case scenario, but all countries have infected people who have not been tested and yet may be contagious. This is why COVID-19 is so hard to contain, even in European countries that are led by people more competent than our president.

To take testing out of the equation, you can look at the cumulative population fatality rate, where several countries and US states have crossed the 0.1% mark.

States over 1,000 per million:
1 New Jersey 1,928
2 New York 1,774
3 Massachusetts 1,556
4 Connecticut 1,391
5 Louisiana 1,378
6 Mississippi 1,279
7 Rhode Island 1,271
8 North Dakota 1,207
9 South Dakota 1,066
10 Illinois 1,017

Countries with highest cumulative population fatality rate:
1 Belgium 1,425
2 San Marino 1,325
3 Peru 1,083
4 Andorra 983
5 Spain 955
6 Italy 909
7 UK 856
8 Argentina 848
9 North Macedonia 831
10 USA 823
11 Mexico 816
12 Brazil 811
13 France 801
14 Bosnia and Herzegovina 801
15 Chile 800

U.S numbers rate to at least double by the time lots of people are vaccinated in 6 months or so. It's close to an even bet IMHO whether US death total will surpass the 675,000 in 1918-1920, when US population was about 30% of what it is now.
 
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