The big Corona Virus Shutdown

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Re: The big Corona Virus Shutdown

Postby Sbooker » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:03 pm

Don’t know if anyone saw this news from Israel? :-D
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.the ... 5.ece/amp/
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Re: The big Corona Virus Shutdown

Postby Tony Crocker » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:36 pm

As one who looked diligently for ways to ski as long as possible, what one might do personally is different from what a resort should do.

China Peak was comfortably socially distanced on March 19, but surely would not have been two days later on a Saturday. It would be impossible if anyplace as high profile as Mammoth opened.

A long list of things we want to do aren't going to be feasible without massive testing and contact tracing being implemented first. The US is way behind the curve on that, so not too likely while there is still decent enough snow this season to consider skiing.
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Re: The big Corona Virus Shutdown

Postby ShiftyRider » Mon Jul 06, 2020 3:54 pm

111 days after this quote...
The good news from this is that the 2% mortality stat for COVID-19 is probably much overstated. With all the unexplained community transmission and lack of testing, it seems obvious that there are a ton of unreported cases, so the denominator of the mortality rate is much understated.
I wish the wishful thinking in this disaster of a thread were true, but the current US Case Fatality Rate is 4.5%.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

On another note, you people and your conspiracy theories are wonderful when the putative conspiracy is a moon-landing or secret messages hidden on silly things or similar...But your conspiracy theories about public health will actually get people killed. Please cut it out (if perhaps you can manage to control yourself).
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Re: The big Corona Virus Shutdown

Postby Tony Crocker » Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:05 am

Article above wrote:Differences in mortality numbers can be caused by:

Differences in the number of people tested: With more testing, more people with milder cases are identified. This lowers the case-fatality ratio.
Demographics: For example, mortality tends to be higher in older populations.
Characteristics of the healthcare system: For example, mortality may rise as hospitals become overwhelmed and have fewer resources.
Other factors, many of which remain unknown.

Since the US has been a laggard on testing, its case fatality ratio will be overstated. No surprise it's much lower in countries with aggressive contact tracing, like South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. On the Diamond Princess cruise ship, where everyone on board was tested and which surely had a more elderly than average demographic, the case fatality rate was 1.8%.

I will still be surprised if the true number is over 1%. I'm more concerned that a significant number of survivors will have permanent lung damage. Two of the people I know that got it in March and recovered are still around half normal lung capacity. Their doctors say they will recover it gradually, but I think the disease is too new for them to really know that.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
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Re: The big Corona Virus Shutdown

Postby ShiftyRider » Fri Dec 04, 2020 4:30 pm

ShiftyRider wrote:111 days after this quote...
The good news from this is that the 2% mortality stat for COVID-19 is probably much overstated. With all the unexplained community transmission and lack of testing, it seems obvious that there are a ton of unreported cases, so the denominator of the mortality rate is much understated.
I wish the wishful thinking in this disaster of a thread were true, but the current US Case Fatality Rate is 4.5%.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

On another note, you people and your conspiracy theories are wonderful when the putative conspiracy is a moon-landing or secret messages hidden on silly things or similar...But your conspiracy theories about public health will actually get people killed. Please cut it out (if perhaps you can manage to control yourself).
(Now 262 days after)
Clicking the link TODAY...
"This page was last updated on Friday, December 4, 2020 at 3:00 AM EST.
"United States... 2.0%"

Wikipedia should hyperlink to the moronic blowhards in this FTO thread.
(ref. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect)
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Re: The big Corona Virus Shutdown

Postby Tony Crocker » Fri Dec 04, 2020 7:09 pm

Case mortality rate remains problematic for COVID-19 because there are so many asymptomatic cases. In that chart Mexico tops the list at 9.5%. Do we believe that the virus is way more virulent in Mexico or that treatment is massively incompetent vs. countries like Indonesia or Brazil? I don't think so. The explanation is Mexico's 38.7% positivity rate, which means testing is hopelessly deficient and a huge number of cases are not being identified.

Mexico is the worst case scenario, but all countries have infected people who have not been tested and yet may be contagious. This is why COVID-19 is so hard to contain, even in European countries that are led by people more competent than our president.

To take testing out of the equation, you can look at the cumulative population fatality rate, where several countries and US states have crossed the 0.1% mark.

States over 1,000 per million:
1 New Jersey 1,928
2 New York 1,774
3 Massachusetts 1,556
4 Connecticut 1,391
5 Louisiana 1,378
6 Mississippi 1,279
7 Rhode Island 1,271
8 North Dakota 1,207
9 South Dakota 1,066
10 Illinois 1,017

Countries with highest cumulative population fatality rate:
1 Belgium 1,425
2 San Marino 1,325
3 Peru 1,083
4 Andorra 983
5 Spain 955
6 Italy 909
7 UK 856
8 Argentina 848
9 North Macedonia 831
10 USA 823
11 Mexico 816
12 Brazil 811
13 France 801
14 Bosnia and Herzegovina 801
15 Chile 800

U.S numbers rate to at least double by the time lots of people are vaccinated in 6 months or so. It's close to an even bet IMHO whether US death total will surpass the 675,000 in 1918-1920, when US population was about 30% of what it is now.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
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