Western Weather 2010-14

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mbaydala

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Next shot of snow probably coming through Utah sometime next week. Not sold on this system yet but check out the 48 hour total precipitation on the 12Z GFS as of this am. Timing with these sort of systems is always an issue.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p48_204l.gif

Here is a good link for Wasatch skiers as well. It's pinpoint forecast for Alta for 7 days out, but broken down into 6 hour blocks. Snow accumulations only go out 3 days or so and they only really pinpoint them around 2 days but still interesting.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecast/wxtables/index.php?lat=40.6&lon=-111.64

Here is the NAM and the GFS computer model forecasts links.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

The 0Z and the 12Z are the most accurate for longer range forecasts. Click on the "Fine" link under the model you wish to view then pick the Tot Pcpn Loop that you desire. The "Fine" link only shows you precip, it wont show you pressure or temperture, for that you have to view the 4 pannel charts and select a 6 hour time. I usually check the 12 - 24 hour loops on the "fine" link to get a feel for what a storm is going to do over the course of a day. Remember that usually an inch of water equals about a foot of snow when temps are around 30. As temps get coolder snow densities decrease and you end up with more snow. Also the NAM only goes out about 4 days, while the GFS goes out 14 days. When looking in the 7-14 day range don't get to excited about anything unless you see a trend with the models. Meaning, if you see the same storm system show up two, three, or even four days in a row then you know the model is hinting at something, then you can begin to get excited.
It's also helpful if you read your local forecast discussion at 3-5am and 3-5pm for longer range forecasts.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...LC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
It helps to make sense of these computer models. If you remember last night I was talking about that early - mid week storm next week and I put a link up to show the 48 hour total precipitation for next week ending Wed night. Now if you read the NWS forecast discussion this afternoon you can see they have seen this storm for a couple of days on the models so now they are adding it to the forecast discussion. Here is what they are saying "THE EC AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW
UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...BUMPED POPS ABOVE CLIMO
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK."

Finally, another area which is good to view longer range patterns is the climate prediction center. Here you can see precip and temp forecasts for the next 6-10 and 10-14 periods.
http://www.weather.gov/predictions.php
 
Bravo! Let's make this one of those never-ending threads. Should it take off I'll sticky it to make it persistent.

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Cool, I'm a weather nerd too so it'll be nice to have this thread to check amongst my other usual places. Maybe add a list of links to the first post in this thread for peoples reference?
 
socal":6dc5ll1i said:
Maybe add a list of links to the first post in this thread for peoples reference?

Great idea, but mbaydala will have to do that and edit his own first post if he agrees. I submit the following links for Utah:


And for the Western Region:

 
great thread..even though i'm back east. all weather is interesting..

hey mbaydala, i majored in meteorology in school. funny how we both ended up it the food service industry :roll:
 
Interesting reference by socal. Note from the article below that Mammoth Pass snowpack did not exceed its long term average until April this year. There's been some debate on Mammoth Forum about this year's snow and the early announcement about July 4 closing. Despite the impressive 500+ snowfall total, the snowpack by observation does not look close to what we saw in 2005 and 2006. Water content this season has averaged ~10% (thus the numerous high quality powder days Adam and many others enjoyed) vs. long term average 12.9%.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/clark/ ... r-year.asp

With regard to organization of this thread, I wouild recommend that (like the eastern threads) it be restarted by season, say starting Sept. 1 or so. If the thread becomes very active a regional split (West Coast vs. Rockies) should be considered.
 
In moab at the moment, won't be back till monday. I'm planning on skiing at alta tuesday wednesday though.

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mbaydala":11tsqlcl said:
Next shot of snow prob coming through Utah sometime next week. Not sold on this system yet but as you here you can see the 48 hour precip totals as shown by the 12Z GFS this am. Timing with these sort of systems is always an issue.

Looks like its coming together... Just got back from Moab but here is the NWS thinking...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM MDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM
MDT THURSDAY.

* AFFECTED AREA: WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80 AND THE WESTERN
UINTA MOUNTAINS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 15 TO 30 INCHES
IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY ABOVE ABOUT 7000 FEET.

* TIMING: RAIN AND SNOW WILL START TONIGHT THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE...HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING.
 
Thursday looks like the day from that forecast. If it's sunny Thursday afternoon there are going to be some locals PO'd about the lifts not reopening until Friday.
 
doesn't really matter if the lifts are open !!! even here we have technology to go uphill on leg power . looks good for a nice weekend of smooooth corn . hopefully snowbird doesn't take too many enchanted folks up on private trams i've seen um do it in the past . a couple of days of cooking in the sun and walaa perfection supportable corn it's coming to mid may now it's possible to happen that quick with good warm temps and sun.
 
And A-Basin gets skunked again.... They're reporting 2" form the latest big storm. Meanwhile, looking at the Eldora webcam this morning...

eldo may12.jpg


That's at least a foot and more likely around 18"+... which is just like it's been for the majority of the last two seasons for upslope storms in Colo. Very weird!
 
I'm headed over to Alta in about 5 minutes to do some skinning and skiing. I will let you know what it looks and feels like. Looks like Alta has picked up close to 16 inches since early Monday morning.
 
Bobby Danger":2vcai46a said:
doesn't really matter if the lifts are open !!! even here we have technology to go uphill on leg power . looks good for a nice weekend of smooooth corn . hopefully snowbird doesn't take too many enchanted folks up on private trams i've seen um do it in the past . a couple of days of cooking in the sun and walaa perfection supportable corn it's coming to mid may now it's possible to happen that quick with good warm temps and sun.
I would not be surprised to see the earned turns contingent out in force on Thursday. I would be highly skeptical that this would settle into corn by the weekend unless there is a lot of wind to pack it down faster.
 
i don't think it's gonna happen by this weekend either now on anything but west or south facing !!( to cloudy) and a few flurries kicking around... and it could be warmer !! the storm that came through isn't pulling away that quickly !! yesterday and today in the afternoon the sun has been cooking up some flurries the sun sets and the clouds dry up ...
 
based on a quick look at the most recent two runs of the GFS model there could be a storm of sorts coming through Northern Cal and down through the Wasatch by about Wed of next week. Not looking too impressive but worth watching.
 
For note. The Basin has picked up 4" per day the last two days so 10" total this week with supposedly one more shot at 2-4" again this evening/night...

So not massive powder on any day, but certainly not too bad for mid-May in the northern hemisphere.
 
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