Western Weather

[EMSC]

Joel Gratz our resident Colo powder forecaster is starting to think the pattern will change next week as well, but he's still iffy on just how far south the storms will come.

Hold the presses! Stop the internet! Cut the cord in the tin-can phone! Is it possible? Really? Could Colorado actually see a decent *CHANCE* of storminess next week? Whoa...no way! Details below (yes, I'm finally allowing myself to get *slightly* excited).

http://opensnow.com/state/CO/dailysnow

[Admin]

Joel Gratz our resident Colo powder forecaster is starting to think the pattern will change next week as well, but he's still iffy on just how far south the storms will come.

Hold the presses! Stop the internet! Cut the cord in the tin-can phone! Is it possible? Really? Could Colorado actually see a decent *CHANCE* of storminess next week? Whoa...no way! Details below (yes, I'm finally allowing myself to get *slightly* excited).

http://opensnow.com/state/CO/dailysnow

Joel's a good guy, and knows his $hit.

[Tony Crocker]

That was a well reasoned, no hype forecast, describing the level of uncertainty and how it will gradually change.

[Admin]

It's a long way out (which of course means little more than an educated guess) but this is looking a bit more upbeat:

Climate Prediction Center precipitation probabilities in percentages

814day.02.gif (21.22 KiB) Viewed 1204 times

[longshanks]

Some LOVE coming for the PNW, BC Interior and Northern Rockies...oh ya!



And for the areas to the South...not so much. Hey, maybe next week...

[socal]

Some LOVE coming for the PNW, BC Interior and Northern Rockies...oh ya!



And for the areas to the South...not so much. Hey, maybe next week...

Glad I picked BC this year. Heading to Whitewater on Sunday then cat skiing at Valhalla Tuesday. Very happy with the forecast.

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using Tapatalk

[Marc_C]

Finally, a glimmer of hope in today's avi advisory:

Tomorrow will be even windier ahead of a vigorous and cold - if somewhat moisture starved - storm for early Monday. Don't worry about the lack of moisture. This first storm is only opens the door to a series of powerful wet, windy, and warm storms set for mid week.

[Admin]

Finally!!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
348 PM MST MON JAN 16 2012

...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW BEGINNING MIDWEEK...

.A VERY MOIST AND ENERGETIC WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN MIDWEEK. A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WEATHER
DISTURBANCES IN THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL
OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH MANY HIGHER ADJACENT
VALLEYS ALSO RECEIVING SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY...RESULTING IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN OR
MIXING WITH SNOW IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.

UTZ007-008-170600-
/O.CAN.KSLC.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120117T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KSLC.WS.A.0001.120118T1900Z-120120T2200Z/
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODRUFF...RANDOLPH...ALTA...BRIGHTON
348 PM MST MON JAN 16 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* AFFECTED AREA: THE WASATCH MOUNTAIN RANGE.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 24 TO 36
INCHES...LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN WASATCH
FRONT.

* TIMING: SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. AN INCREASING
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING RAPIDLY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HEAVY AT TIMES INTO
FRIDAY.

* WINDS: STRONG WESTERLY RIDGETOP WINDS WILL EXIST THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.

* IMPACTS: VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE WASATCH RANGE BEGINNING MIDWEEK. TRAVEL WILL BE
QUITE DIFFICULT DURING THE PEAK OF THIS STORM...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ROAD CLOSURE FROM THE HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. AVALANCHE DANGER WILL ALSO INCREASE DUE TO THE
EXPECTED WINTER STORM CONDITIONS.

[Marc_C]

As of 4pm MST, the top of Collins (10500') recorded -3.6F, winds at 20mph gusting to 36mph, giving a wind chill of -33F.

[Admin]

Well, I did say that it would be wallpaper paste...

I just checked the mid-Collins Snotel at Alta:
http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman ... type=LOCAL

10" of 13% wallpaper paste thus far. It's a real fire hose, alright. Could be 5 feet by Monday.

[flyover]

a wind chill of -33F.

Meh, that was the reported wind chill this morning as my daughter and I waited at her school bus stop. Our first sub-zero this winter. In fact, it's the latest first sub-zero of the winter ever recorded in the Twin Cities.

Well, I did say that it would be wallpaper paste...

I just checked the mid-Collins Snotel at Alta:
http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman ... type=LOCAL

10" of 13% wallpaper paste thus far. It's a real fire hose, alright. Could be 5 feet by Monday.

I'll display my ignorance here. I realize that the heavy, wet snow will make the avi conditions pretty frightening for the next few days, but with widespread rot and a comparatively thin snowpack, isn't dense snow exactly what is needed to quickly tear down the weak layers and build base?

Glad to see it finally snowing out there. I've got a 4-day early March trip planned to SLC and was starting to get just a little concerned.

[Marc_C]

I'll display my ignorance here. I realize that the heavy, wet snow will make the avi conditions pretty frightening for the next few days, but with widespread rot and a comparatively thin snowpack, isn't dense snow exactly what is needed to quickly tear down the weak layers and build base?

Precisely. 18" of 4% would not have had much long term benefit.
Getting away from -33F wind chills is one of the side advantages of leaving New England. But every now and then that kind of ugliness rears its godforsaken head out here. I've gotten soft. I usually stay home on those days. It hurts too much now.

[Admin]

This is it!!

UTZ007>010-200645-
/O.NEW.KSLC.WS.A.0003.120121T0600Z-120122T1800Z/
/O.CON.KSLC.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120120T2200Z/
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODRUFF...RANDOLPH...ALTA...BRIGHTON...
MIRROR LAKE HIGHWAY...SCOFIELD
344 PM MST THU JAN 19 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MST FRIDAY.

* AFFECTED AREA: THE WASATCH AND WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS...
WASATCH PLATEAU AND BOOK CLIFFS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
FEET IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* TIMING: SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN BY THIS
EVENING THEN TAPER OFF AFTER NOON FRIDAY. SNOW WILL REDEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF AGAIN. RAIN IS POSSIBLE UP TO 8500 FEET LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY.

* WINDS: OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH ALONG
EXPOSED RIDGELINES. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY BUT PICK UP
AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DROP OFF EARLY SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS: HEAVY SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE
TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT AT TIMES THROUGH THE NORTHERN UTAH
MOUNTAINS. OCCASIONAL WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HIGH SNOWFALL
RATES AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. AVALANCHE
DANGER WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THESE WINTER STORM
CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS A MIXTURE OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. DRIVING CONDITIONS MAY BE
HAZARDOUS. USE CAUTION. BE PREPARED FOR SUDDEN RESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. KEEP A WINTER STORM SURVIVAL KIT
IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A MIXTURE OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

FOR WINTER ROAD CONDITIONS FROM THE UTAH DEPARTMENT OF
TRANSPORTATION VISIT...HTTP://WWW.COMMUTERLINK.UTAH.GOV.

Add it up, that's 2 to 5 feet! That's in addition to the 17" yesterday and doesn't even include the Monday/Tuesday storm. And the forecast area covers a wide range of areas and topography, so we all know where that five feet will be falling.

Jim Steenburgh emailed me today to point me to his forecast. Sunday sounds like THE day:

http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.c ... earth.html

[longshanks]

West Kootenay
3:59 AM PST Friday 20 January 2012
Winter storm warning for
West Kootenay upgraded from Winter storm watch

Total snowfall accumulations of 25 to 40 cm through tonight and Saturday.
This is a warning that dangerous winter weather conditions are expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

Excellent News...I have been in Tacoma WA on business since Sunday and have experienced 1st hand the $hit Show of weather that this area has been subjected to all week...they just aren't used to Storm conditions and don't have the plows/sanders needed to fight the battle and the freezing rain just added insult to injury

Flying to Spokane tonight and headed up to Rossland BC for 4 Days of riding at Red, may get over to Whitewater for one of those

[socal]

West Kootenay
3:59 AM PST Friday 20 January 2012
Winter storm warning for
West Kootenay upgraded from Winter storm watch

Total snowfall accumulations of 25 to 40 cm through tonight and Saturday.
This is a warning that dangerous winter weather conditions are expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

Excellent News...I have been in Tacoma WA on business since Sunday and have experienced 1st hand the $hit Show of weather that this area has been subjected to all week...they just aren't used to Storm conditions and don't have the plows/sanders needed to fight the battle and the freezing rain just added insult to injury

Flying to Spokane tonight and headed up to Rossland BC for 4 Days of riding at Red, may get over to Whitewater for one of those

I'm at Schweitzer right now, might want to try somewhere more to the south. they're expecting it to dump here tonight and yesterday was a great powder day. On the drive from white water the snow picked up as we drove south.

Just a suggestion from someone who's been in the area all week (white water and Valhalla cat skiing ).

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