NZ and Oz - 2020.

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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby Sbooker » Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:06 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:Here's one sbooker will appreciate:
Trump Family Records More Cases Of Community Transmission Than Entire State Of Queensland
courtesy of Betoota Advocate, a satirical Australian news site.

Don’t get me started.
The contradictions and inconsistencies in our Covid laws are breathtaking. I visited a cafe on Saturday morning but the cafe is not permitted to allow dining because it is deemed to ‘unsafe’ due to lack of size.
Meanwhile the evening prior there was 30000 people at The Gabba for the AFL final.
There hasn’t been a case of community transmission in the state of NSW for 2 weeks yet my father in laws brother wasn’t permitted to enter the state of Queensland for my FIL’s funeral last week. Disgusting.
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby ShiftyRider » Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:45 pm

EMSC wrote:
jamesdeluxe wrote:Are all my fellow Americans enjoying our status as the laughing stock of the world?

Does this mean that James thinks that France, UK, Spain, India and Brazil and others are now the laughing stock of the world?
Which of those countries' leader did debates and fundraisers so they could infect those around them. Cuz unless you have trouble counting backwards, if Trump isn't contagious now or for his next brain-dead rally then according to his own CDC he was contagious early last week.

While you were sleeping...
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby EMSC » Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:26 pm

ShiftyRider wrote:Which of those countries' leader did debates and fundraisers so they could infect those around them. Cuz unless you have trouble counting backwards, if Trump isn't contagious now or for his next brain-dead rally then according to his own CDC he was contagious early last week


Not sure what one individuals choice has to do with viewing an entire country's response. If what one single politician does or doesn't do rules your entire life/viewpoint, then I have to feel sorry for them. Because Macron in France wears a mask and talks more politicianly, means that the huge crush of new cases there is okey, dokey then? Europe screwed up their response pretty badly, as is now apparent. Doesn't matter what Macron does or doesn't personally do, or say to a press microphone for example. It's not changing the course of anything for France. He should have been getting his county's various systems and workers ready for a virus that is endemic in the world, which he didn't. Either that or the reality is that the governments across the world don't have the power, competence and etc... for such a response and should have taken maybe Sweden's approach of designing systems for long term compliance, not overwhelming healthcare; instead of economic destruction and slow boil rebellions among other easily foreseen side effects.

It would seem that only small homogenous populations have had any other decent outcomes so far (eg South Korea, Singapore).
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby Sbooker » Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:56 pm

EMSC wrote:
ShiftyRider wrote:Which of those countries' leader did debates and fundraisers so they could infect those around them. Cuz unless you have trouble counting backwards, if Trump isn't contagious now or for his next brain-dead rally then according to his own CDC he was contagious early last week


Not sure what one individuals choice has to do with viewing an entire country's response. If what one single politician does or doesn't do rules your entire life/viewpoint, then I have to feel sorry for them. Because Macron in France wears a mask and talks more politicianly, means that the huge crush of new cases there is okey, dokey then? Europe screwed up their response pretty badly, as is now apparent. Doesn't matter what Macron does or doesn't personally do, or say to a press microphone for example. It's not changing the course of anything for France. He should have been getting his county's various systems and workers ready for a virus that is endemic in the world, which he didn't. Either that or the reality is that the governments across the world don't have the power, competence and etc... for such a response and should have taken maybe Sweden's approach of designing systems for long term compliance, not overwhelming healthcare; instead of economic destruction and slow boil rebellions among other easily foreseen side effects.

It would seem that only small homogenous populations have had any other decent outcomes so far (eg South Korea, Singapore).


As previously said we might be best off making that assessment in a couple of years. So far my State's Covid infection numbers and Covid deaths have been impressively low - largely due to a sparse population - but that does not gauge other factors like economic health, mental health of the population or personal liberty.
Looking on as an outsider it doesn't seem the US (or many parts of it) has got it quite right either though.

The Oz winter is now well and truly dead and buried. I will now look forward to my next realistic chance of clicking in which will be in August 2021. Hopefully I can travel to NZ.
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby ShiftyRider » Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:01 pm

EMSC wrote:Not sure what one individuals choice has to do with viewing an entire country's response.
Leadership matters.
Unity is strength.
We all benefit, when each of us cares about (not infecting) our neighbor.
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby Tony Crocker » Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:24 am

sbooker wrote:As previously said we might be best off making that assessment in a couple of years. So far my State's Covid infection numbers and Covid deaths have been impressively low - largely due to a sparse population - but that does not gauge other factors like economic health, mental health of the population or personal liberty.

+1 I agree 100% that a sparse vs. dense population makes COVID-19 much easier to control. NYC was Exhibit A. Europe is much denser than the USA or Canada overall. The US has a mix of dense and sparse populations and thus overall should do better than Europe. But in the US the sparse areas caught up to the dense ones over the summer and remain worse now. Why is that? Here are the top 13 states in per 1M capita COVID-19 case count:
1 Louisiana 36,010 19.64%
2 Mississippi 33,657 17.80%
3 Florida 33,271 1.19%
4 Alabama 32,301 27.73%
5 North Dakota 30,357 35.73%
6 Georgia 30,335 5.10%
7 Arizona 30,280 3.50%
8 South Carolina 29,307 14.27%
9 Tennessee 29,227 26.01%
10 Iowa 29,148 9.41%
11 Arkansas 28,672 26.92%
12 Texas 27,665 9.00%
13 South Dakota 27,113 29.79%
Average 30,401 10.5%

New York and New Jersey led that list by a mile on 4/30. Now they rank 15th and 19th. The percentage in the third column is the percentage by which Trump won the state (all 13 of them!) in 2016. Weighted by population he won those states by 10.5% while losing the overall popular vote by 2.1%.

EMSC wrote:If what one single politician does or doesn't do rules your entire life/viewpoint, then I have to feel sorry for them.

Then you better feel sorry for the 30% or so of the US population that swallows everything fed to them by Trump and Fox News at face value. Do you have a better explanation for why the spread of COVID-19 is so high in sparsely populated areas of the U.S.?

EMSC wrote:It would seem that only small homogenous populations have had any other decent outcomes so far (eg South Korea, Singapore).

Homogeneous is the key adjective here. South Korea has a population of 51 million and Taiwan 24 million, both with at least Euro-level population density. Also important is the willingness of the people to follow orders from government/health professionals speaking with a unified voice. The Asian countries also have a recent tradition of mask-wearing from the SARS and MERS outbreaks.

EMSC wrote:...Sweden's approach of designing systems for long term compliance, not overwhelming healthcare; instead of economic destruction and slow boil rebellions among other easily foreseen side effects....
might have been a better strategy for the diverse and impatient makeup of the U.S. population. But it was definitely the wrong approach for Sweden itself. All the Scandinavian countries have small homogeneous populations with high trust in government, so no surprise Denmark has half the case rate and 1/4 the death rate of Sweden while Norway and Finland have 1/5 the case rate and 1/10 the death rate.

Other factors equal, compliant populations are going to do better in a pandemic scenario. Germany is another country where the people are known to be good at following orders :lol:. The U.S. was always going to be more difficult in this regard. Independence, questioning authority, etc. are more often than not a strength of American character, but a pandemic is an exception to that.
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby Sbooker » Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:30 pm

^^^^^
I hadn't thought about it that way to be honest and I had no idea the red States had the highest incidence of Covid.
I do agree with your observation that the compliant populations seem to fare best in pandemics.
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby ShiftyRider » Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:52 pm

I had no idea the red States
...are where the best and brightest grow up to excel at either Prison Guard or Auto Repair Tech
...don't get visited by blue Staters on vacation
...have lotsa bumper stickers about beer and incest
...are where they breathe thru their mouths
1 Louisiana 36,010 19.64%
2 Mississippi 33,657 17.80%
3 Florida 33,271 1.19%
4 Alabama 32,301 27.73%
5 North Dakota 30,357 35.73%
6 Georgia 30,335 5.10%
7 Arizona 30,280 3.50%
8 South Carolina 29,307 14.27%
9 Tennessee 29,227 26.01%
10 Iowa 29,148 9.41%
11 Arkansas 28,672 26.92%
12 Texas 27,665 9.00%
13 South Dakota 27,113 29.79%
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby Sbooker » Wed Oct 14, 2020 3:56 am

ShiftyRider wrote:
I had no idea the red States
...are where the best and brightest grow up to excel at either Prison Guard or Auto Repair Tech
...don't get visited by blue Staters on vacation
...have lotsa bumper stickers about beer and incest
...are where they breathe thru their mouths
1 Louisiana 36,010 19.64%
2 Mississippi 33,657 17.80%
3 Florida 33,271 1.19%
4 Alabama 32,301 27.73%
5 North Dakota 30,357 35.73%
6 Georgia 30,335 5.10%
7 Arizona 30,280 3.50%
8 South Carolina 29,307 14.27%
9 Tennessee 29,227 26.01%
10 Iowa 29,148 9.41%
11 Arkansas 28,672 26.92%
12 Texas 27,665 9.00%
13 South Dakota 27,113 29.79%

Your post doesn’t make it clear what side of the political divide you sit. Let me guess. You wear a MAGA cap?
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby ShiftyRider » Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:08 pm

Regretfully, Hughes/Cain 2020 was my choice...
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby EMSC » Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:04 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:Then you better feel sorry for the 30% or so of the US population that swallows everything fed to them by Trump and Fox News at face value. Do you have a better explanation for why the spread of COVID-19 is so high in sparsely populated areas of the U.S.?


I'm equal opportunity. I feel just as sorry for the 30+% of the population that hangs on every word of various Democrats as well. There is literally no politician that I've ever said "I'd like to vote for that person". I choose the less bad of usually two rather poor options in every race (I've never voted either party as a straight party ticket either - that's for fools to vote that way). I also don't suffer the foolish ramblings of any politician or need them to 'lead' me in what to think or do. Like I said, I feel super sorry for those that are unable to think for themselves and lead themselves in life. It has to be a very limiting, fear filled, unfulfilling life to not be capable of independent thought.

Tony Crocker wrote:Homogeneous is the key adjective here.


I think "small" is also very appropriate, as in geographically small. Most probably don't know that Seoul metro is massive and literally 50% of the entire country's population for example. The rest of the country can be reached in a single day... It's about the size of Indiana. Denmark certainly fits both criteria well, the rest of Scandinavia less so on the geographical size.

Tony Crocker wrote:so no surprise Denmark has half the case rate and 1/4 the death rate of Sweden while Norway and Finland have 1/5 the case rate and 1/10 the death rate.

We'll see what the rates are in 2-3 years. Still not holding my breath on a vaccine in a few weeks/months time. If no viable vaccine within the next few months then some form of herd immunity or Swedish way will look ever more correct. If a vaccine magically appears then holding out with bad rules may have been more appropriate. The big problem is that you cannot know ahead of time which is more correct. However, the longer things go, the Swedish method will be the ever more clear path that should (have) been taken.
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby Tony Crocker » Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:52 pm

EMSC wrote:I feel just as sorry for the 30+% of the population that hangs on every word of various Democrats as well.

Over the years I've taken more than my share of shots at that group too. After all I was married to one of those for 21 years. :lol: But with specific reference to the pandemic, Trump's detachment from reality can be particularly damaging to those who take him seriously. Just ask Herman Cain!

EMSC wrote: The big problem is that you cannot know ahead of time which is more correct.

The pandemic has been effectively contained so far by:
1) An extreme but fairly short initial shutdown that drove new cases to a very low level.
2) Aggressive contact tracing/quarantining of new cases after reopening with widespread cooperation of the public.
The above has worked effectively so far for some of East Asia, Scandinavia (aside from Sweden) and Australia/New Zealand. But you need an homogenous and compliant population and low population density helps.

EMSC wrote:Denmark certainly fits both criteria well, the rest of Scandinavia less so on the geographical size.

The larger geographic size is an advantage for those other countries as density is lower. The same goes for Australia, where a surge in cases in Victoria has been kept out of the other states.

#1 never happened in the U.S. Many states had severe spring shutdowns but community transmission remained significant and testing was poorly organized with unacceptably long turnaround times.

#1 did happen in western Europe but the current new case counts are as high as last spring. All three factors above are not as favorable as for East Asia, Scandinavia and Australia/New Zealand.

The Euro experience implies that even if the spring response in the U.S. had been more competent, we might still be struggling now with a significant second round.

While many of us Americans have conducted our daily lives according to personal views of what behavior is risky or not, there is the perhaps more serious issue of non-cooperation among those exposed or positive. L.A. County tries to do contact tracing but reports a high proportion of respondents who refuse to name their contacts. Of course the White House didn't cooperate with contact tracing either. :stir:
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Sweden WORSE than neighboring countries

Postby ShiftyRider » Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:28 am

Leadership is now a pejorative to some, wow. On a macro scale, leadership is needed to win a war. On a micro scale, folks like us get to choose our doctor, so I humbly recommend picking one who knows more about health and medicine than you do, EMSC. Then listen to them, okay?
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby Tony Crocker » Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:13 pm

sbooker wrote:I visited a cafe on Saturday morning but the cafe is not permitted to allow dining because it is deemed to ‘unsafe’ due to lack of size. Meanwhile the evening prior there was 30000 people at The Gabba for the AFL final.Meanwhile the evening prior there was 30,000 people at The Gabba for the AFL final.

Yes, I see a contradiction there. If Queensland is sealed off as effectively as it seems, there should be minimal if any restriction on activities/businesses etc. internally.

Indoor dining is one of the borderline cases in the US. It is still forbidden in Miami, Chicago and Los Angeles of the places we have been. Other places are generally at 25% (generally not considered viable by most restaurants unless in addition to outdoor and takeout) or 50%.

Here in SoCal, there are several areas where cities have blocked off street parking in order to expand outdoor dining, in addition to the many restaurants that have put up tents in their parking lots. We expect most of our restaurant dining to be outdoors for the foreseeable future here. Isn't there a lot of outdoor dining in Queensland with the Florida type weather?

In areas of the U.S. with cold winters that will not be viable. It was already winter in Boulder Sept. 8-9, so fortunately we could dine indoors there.

Stadium sporting events are still mostly without fans here. Here's the status of the NFL. Many states still allow no fans in their stadiums. The ones that do tend to be at 15-20% capacity with no one over 25%.

Baseball had no fans during the regular season. The World Series and NLCS are in Texas and allow about 25% attendance. Yes, I was thinking about that for WS but not so likely now. :evil: The ALCS is in San Diego with no fans as California won't allow it for that or the 3 NFL teams in the state.

I'm also puzzled by the Euro response to the recent surge. Bars/pubs are clearly among the riskiest environments and the Euro response is a 9PM curfew? So it's OK to infect people before then?

People are less likely to respect regulations that lack common sense. Last spring big box stores could sell anything they wanted as long as they had a grocery department deemed "essential." Meanwhile lots of small businesses were forced to close completely. Surely it would be fairer to enforce the same rules (capacity limits/mask wearing) on all retail-type businesses.
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby Sbooker » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:38 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:
sbooker wrote:I visited a cafe on Saturday morning but the cafe is not permitted to allow dining because it is deemed to ‘unsafe’ due to lack of size. Meanwhile the evening prior there was 30000 people at The Gabba for the AFL final.Meanwhile the evening prior there was 30,000 people at The Gabba for the AFL final.

Yes, I see a contradiction there. If Queensland is sealed off as effectively as it seems, there should be minimal if any restriction on activities/businesses etc. internally.

Indoor dining is one of the borderline cases in the US. It is still forbidden in Miami, Chicago and Los Angeles of the places we have been. Other places are generally at 25% (generally not considered viable by most restaurants unless in addition to outdoor and takeout) or 50%.

Here in SoCal, there are several areas where cities have blocked off street parking in order to expand outdoor dining, in addition to the many restaurants that have put up tents in their parking lots. We expect most of our restaurant dining to be outdoors for the foreseeable future here. Isn't there a lot of outdoor dining in Queensland with the Florida type weather?

In areas of the U.S. with cold winters that will not be viable. It was already winter in Boulder Sept. 8-9, so fortunately we could dine indoors there.

Stadium sporting events are still mostly without fans here. Here's the status of the NFL. Many states still allow no fans in their stadiums. The ones that do tend to be at 15-20% capacity with no one over 25%.

Baseball had no fans during the regular season. The World Series and NLCS are in Texas and allow about 25% attendance. Yes, I was thinking about that for WS but not so likely now. :evil: The ALCS is in San Diego with no fans as California won't allow it for that or the 3 NFL teams in the state.

I'm also puzzled by the Euro response to the recent surge. Bars/pubs are clearly among the riskiest environments and the Euro response is a 9PM curfew? So it's OK to infect people before then?

People are less likely to respect regulations that lack common sense. Last spring big box stores could sell anything they wanted as long as they had a grocery department deemed "essential." Meanwhile lots of small businesses were forced to close completely. Surely it would be fairer to enforce the same rules (capacity limits/mask wearing) on all retail-type businesses.


There is so much inconsistency and contradiction with regard Covid here in Queensland and it appears the same in many other places across the globe. Your observation that without any cases movement within the state should be unrestricted is obviously correct but that would mean our politicians would have to relinquish the control that they seem to enjoy having over the population. Businesses had to set up 'Covid safe' plans to open after the initial lock down. Those plans still have to be adhered to.
Outdoor dining is permitted here but only under certain conditions. Size of venue is one. The other is a 'per square metre' rule. That can effectively mean it's not viable for the business to open. It's heartbreaking for these business owners. Meanwhile crowds at some sporting fixtures are huge because it appears that big business is way more important than small business. Celebs and sporting people are allowed to enter the state without quarantine but grieving family members aren't permitted to enter Queensland from other states to attend funerals or visit relatives on their deathbeds in hospital. It's sickening.
The new case numbers (community transmission not including returned travelers in quarantine) here in Oz yesterday -
NSW - 2
Vic - 2
Qld - 0
NT - 0
WA - 0
Tas - 0
SA - 0
And our fu(*ing border is shut. It's beyond frustrating.
*We are permitted to travel to SA and NT. But none of the other states.
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