The Red Flag for Andes 2008 is Removed

I'm kind of stuck since I have a leftover deposit from a cancelled trip at Termas de Chillan from last summer. It's 'use it or lose it' at this point. My out of pocket this year is really low since I'm on frequent flyer miles and the resort is already partily paid.
 
Real improvement in the central Andean western side (Chapelco & Catedral).

Today's (July 21th) update.

Chile:

Ski Arpa: 20 - 20 cm
Portillo: 184 - 179 cm
La Parva: 198 - 315 cm
El Colorado: 80 - 120 cm
Valle Nevado: 86 - 86 cm
Termas de Chillan: 30 - 60 cm
Villarrica/Pucon: 35 - 35 cm

Argentina:

Las Lenas: 82 - 200 cm
Caviahue: 40 - 120 cm
Chapelco: 25 - 173cm
Cerro Catedral: 0 - 90 cm
Cerro Bayo: CLOSED 0 - 0 cm
La Hoya: CLOSED 0 - 0 cm
 
Talking about Plan A. I've heard that Catedral in Bariloche might have received 60cm on top today.

0-90cm base for a trip of that length and expense would not tempt me. I did that in Thredbo for a day in July 1997 and it was worth the experience. BUT I was in Sydney/Canberra anyway on a family vacation, so the marginal cost of that ski day was a lift ticket, demo skis plus one night in a ski lodge (fun with the Aussie locals, sort of like the place Patrick was in Chillan).
 
Tony Crocker":27ynqw5m said:
Talking about Plan A. I've heard that Catedral in Bariloche might have received 60cm on top today.

0-90cm base for a trip of that length and expense would not tempt me.

Well, I was just reporting the numbers in case someone heading to Bariloche wanted to know. Bases of 0-90 and 25-173 are better than 0-60 and 0-26 that Catedral and Chapelco had last week.

I'll make my decision on where I'll go 5 weeks from now. :p
 
skibum4ever":2ax6p05e said:
Patrick,

I have about 30000 Chilean pesos left over if you'd like to make a deal. :wink:

Do you have any Argentian Pesos? :wink:

Happy you had fun.


Today's (July 29th) update. Not much change in Argentina, increase in some of Chilean areas.

Chile:

Ski Arpa: 20 - 20 cm
Portillo: 164 - 196 cm
La Parva: 198 - 315 cm
El Colorado: 120- 150 cm
Valle Nevado: 100 - 100 cm
Termas de Chillan: 30 - 60 cm
Villarrica/Pucon: 60 - 60 cm

Argentina:

Las Lenas: 82 - 200 cm
Caviahue: 40 - 120 cm
Chapelco: 25 - 180cm
Cerro Catedral: 0 - 85 cm
Cerro Bayo: not reporting
La Hoya: not reporting
 
Pardon my ignorance, but what airline these days is going to let Patrick get a ticket (points or otherwise) a day before he leaves?

Perhaps he's bought the ticket to Buenos Aires and wants to hold off the Las Lenas vs. Bariloche decision.

I see no point in this.
1. South America snowfall declines on average by month after July
2. Bariloche only averages 120 inches mid-mountain
3. Bariloche is low altitude and east facing, not ideal as spring encroaches.

It's going to take miracles for Bariloche to have decent skiing a month from now. Bottom line, try to cut the best lodging deal you can find at Las Lenas, the sooner the better.
 
Tony Crocker":2ty8vtrl said:
I see no point in this.
1. South America snowfall declines on average by month after July

I've experienced two 10 foot dumps in August this decade in Chile. It's the snow that's actually on the ground while you're there that matters. Even if it sucks, it's still better than sitting in front of a computer screen somewhere in North America over-analyzing the weather.

In conclusion:
Shut up and ski.
 
Geoff":8rpbavaw said:
it's still better than sitting in front of a computer screen somewhere in North America over-analyzing the weather.
I don't think he's in North America, there is a solar eclipse this week that won't be visible here. :mrgreen:

Tony Crocker":8rpbavaw said:
Perhaps he's bought the ticket to Buenos Aires and wants to hold off the Las Lenas vs. Bariloche decision.
Si, landing in Santiago and flying out of Buenos Aires, senor Crocker. :-"
 
Tony Crocker":2p7ce42i said:
It's going to take miracles for Bariloche to have decent skiing a month from now. Bottom line, try to cut the best lodging deal you can find at Las Lenas, the sooner the better.

You always talked about how the powderhounds got the goods BECAUSE they were booking on fixed days? :-k My track record is pretty good, I'm in no hurry.

Geoff":2p7ce42i said:
I've experienced two 10 foot dumps in August this decade in Chile. It's the snow that's actually on the ground while you're there that matters.

:p

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Catedral/6day/top

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Portillo/6day/top

Next 6 days forecast from snow-forecast:

Portillo: 28cm :|
Las Lenas: 37cm
Catedral: 118cm :mrgreen: \:D/ \:D/ \:D/

I know where I would be going if I were there NOW. :mrgreen: However I'll wait as long as possible to make my decision.

Today's (August 1st) update. Lake District is suppose to be hammered. Chilean ski areas numbers are from yesterday (July 31st). Ski areas like Portillo are close today due to snow, onthesnow.com doesn't have today's numbers. Heard that Termas was real good today.

I've added some info on latest snow:

*new snow in last *24-72 hr*

Chile:

Ski Arpa (July 29): 20 - 20 cm
Portillo: 163 - 195 cm *4-4cm*
La Parva: 208 - 335 cm *2-2cm*
El Colorado: 130- 140 cm *2-2cm*
Valle Nevado: 100 - 100 cm
Termas de Chillan: 25 - 50 cm
Villarrica/Pucon: 75 - 75 cm

Argentina:

Las Lenas: 82 - 200 cm * 30-30cm*
Caviahue: 40 - 120 cm
Chapelco: 31 - 225cm * 5-60cm*
Cerro Catedral: 8 - 105 cm *15-30cm*
Cerro Bayo: not reporting
La Hoya: not reporting
 
Termas de Chillan:
VILLA BOSQUE NEVADO : 25cm.
NOVICE ZONE : 35 cm.
MEDIUM ZONE : 60 cm.
HIGH ZONE : 180 cm.

Sigh... well, it's not a total disaster at the moment. I imagine the snow up by the cornice under the rope at the top of the Don Otto is fine. I don't really care about the lower mountain other than being able to ski from the hotel down to the bottom of the bunny slope first thing in the morning. One good dump and I should be OK. A week of melting and I'll be looking at a lot of base welds.
 
I've experienced two 10 foot dumps in August this decade in Chile. It's the snow that's actually on the ground while you're there that matters.
I have emphasized as much as anyone the propensity of these areas to get their snow in massive dumps. But that's not Catedral, which is well leeward of the crest of the Andes. It's common sense. What's the likelihood of an area that averages 10 feet in an entire season of getting that kind of snow in one storm? Note that the hyped prediction from snow-forecast (a computer model based in England) turned out to be 15-30 cm.

Even if it sucks, it's still better than sitting in front of a computer screen somewhere in North America over-analyzing the weather.
I was not under the impression that most of the people on this board would consider it acceptable to spend 2-3K on a trip and spend most of it looking at rocks.

I do advocate flexibility. Patrick's concerns at this point should be:
1) Can the Buenos Aires to ski resort buses sell out?
2) How tight is lodging at Las Lenas? If price/availability ares unlikely to change much, he can keep waiting.
 
Tony Crocker":1gze8fwy said:
I was not under the impression that most of the people on this board would consider it acceptable to spend 2-3K on a trip and spend most of it looking at rocks.

You must be one of those people who can't ski the woods because they're looking at the trees instead of the gaps between them. 180 cm base at the top of Termas de Chillan is just fine. I'm sure the off piste cornice under the rope off the top of the Don Otto is in good shape. I really don't care about the flat lower mountain other than having just enough snow to get from the hotel down to the bottom of the lift.
 
Geoff":3qvfmuwj said:
You must be one of those people who can't ski the woods because they're looking at the trees instead of the gaps between them.

:lol: No, he's one of those people who think that I ski through rabbit warrens.
 
My comments were directed at Catedral, not Chillan. The latter's base of 25-180 is a bit different from 8-105. I think it's safe to say that the lower half of Catedral must be downloaded at the moment. Or else there's a snowmaking WROD to get down the hill at the end of the day.

More relevantly, Chillan likely averages 300+ inches per season (at least 2.5x as much as Catedral), so the possibility exists at any time for a big dump to bring on epic conditions.

From what I see, conditions at Las Lenas are acceptable at the best ski area in the southern hemisphere. So what is the rationale for holding out for a miracle to turn around Bariloche? Since Bariloche is chronically less reliable, it would have made sense to go there in 2007 when it was having a big year. I may wait for such a year in the future to return to South America.
 
Jeez, Tony. I just go skiing and don't agonize over waiting for the perfect day and the perfect condition. Life is far to short to sit on the sidelines rationalizing reasons why I shouldn't go do something I truly love to do. When you live in the land of McClimate in LA where it's warm & sunny for 300-odd days per year, I guess you develop a different set of expectations.
 
Admin":2t0vkzf8 said:
Geoff":2t0vkzf8 said:
You must be one of those people who can't ski the woods because they're looking at the trees instead of the gaps between them.

:lol: No, he's one of those people who think that I ski through rabbit warrens.

All those cigarettes stunted your growth. You don't even need to duck.
 
Geoff":2zwu81lo said:
All those cigarettes stunted your growth. You don't even need to duck.

I just do it to make it fair when hiking with flatlanders.
 
Patrick and I have somewhat similar criteria in planning these trips, mainly placing a high priority on trying new places. Since I skied Las Lenas in 2005 and the areas around Santiago last year, my next priority would be the areas farther south I haven't skied yet. But given the disparity of snow in 2008, I'd still go back to a place I've been with decent conditions over a new place with marginal conditions.
 
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