Skier visits down 5.5% overall

[Admin]

Down 5.5% from 2007-08's record year, but up modestly over the 10-year average:
http://www.firsttracksonline.com/News/2 ... n-2008-09/

[Tony Crocker]

I made this call last Oct. 2.

If you look at that Kottke data, you'll see that national skier visits rarely deviate by as much as 10% from the trend of recent years. The exceptions are in unusually bad snow years (PNW in 2004-05 being the most recent example). As in my data, in most years good regions offset bad ones and the national total is smoother. You have to go back to 1980-81 to see a year where bad conditions were so widespread as to put a big dent in the total numbers. I can't see any economic effect in that past data. Not saying it won't be different this time. I will say that the recession will have to be very severe in order to move the skier visit numbers noticeably. I'd say the "normal" number is around 57M. That number might be spun as economic because last year was 60M, but the record high 60M was due to snow. I'd say less than 55M would be a clear sign of economy if snow is average or better.

The overall season was modestly above average snow-wise. Maybe a little better than that because the one region way below average was western Canada, which Kottke/NSAA don't count. We have already heard much anecdotal evidence about how skiers are continuing to ski but arranging to do it more cheaply. One sign of economics in the Kottke data would be if destination resorts are down more with the slack being made up by those within drive distance. One of the destination resort operators I called for snow stats this month is making that claim. This would be particularly true as an economic indicator in Utah and Colorado, which were the strongest regions snow-wise this season.

[Admin]

This would be particularly true as an economic indicator in Utah and Colorado, which were the strongest regions snow-wise this season.

According to the NSAA data released today snowfall the Rocky Mountain region as a whole (not just CO and UT) was down 14.2 percent this year.

[Tony Crocker]

CO+UT must be ~80% of Rocky Mountain region totals. I suspect the Northeast numbers (drive-up) will be strong.

[rfarren]

This would be particularly true as an economic indicator in Utah and Colorado, which were the strongest regions snow-wise this season.

According to the NSAA data released today snowfall the Rocky Mountain region as a whole (not just CO and UT) was down 14.2 percent this year.

Wait, are you saying that snowfall numbers were down 14% or skier visits?

[Admin]

See the original link, for it's all in there. In the Rocky Mountain Region as a whole, visits were up 1.3% and snowfall down 14.2%, both from 10-year averages.

[rfarren]

See the original link, for it's all in there. In the Rocky Mountain Region as a whole, visits were up 1.3% and snowfall down 14.2%, both from 10-year averages.

I know a chunk of february and march were dry but I would think that april made up for it in terms of snowfall. Where, in particular, was the snowfall lower than average?

[Admin]

Where, in particular, was the snowfall lower than average?

According to the NSAA, "in the Rocky Mountain Region as a whole."

[rfarren]

Where, in particular, was the snowfall lower than average?

According to the NSAA, "in the Rocky Mountain Region as a whole."

Tony, now is when I need you. Where are your stats... I mean how can the "Rocky Mountain Region" be below average? I thought Colorado and Utah were average or even a bit over average in terms of snowfall. Is there any other place out there?

[Admin]

The Northern Rockies had a very slow start to the season.

[rfarren]

The Northern Rockies had a very slow start to the season.

That's fine as long as those numbers don't include sun valley. That place never gets any snow.

[Tony Crocker]

Rocky Mountain snowfall was down 14.2% vs. last year, which was huge. It was still above average.

By region:
PNW: 125% last year, probably averages 100% this year, but that ranges from 120% in Oregon to average Washington to 85% Whistler. Slower start in latter 2 sectors likely cut skier visits significantly.
California: 92% last year, 100% Tahoe and 135% Mammoth this year. But Christmas at Tahoe was worse this year, likely cutting visits.
Interior Western Canada: 110% last year, 85-90% this year, I'm sure visits are down.
US Northern Rockies: 134% last year, 110-120% this year. Visits likely down also due to areas being remote destinations. With regard to a slow start, these areas were in the 80% range on Dec. 22 but up to 115% by Dec. 31.
Utah: 120% last year, 130-140% this year. But the excess was all in March/April, so I wouldn't expect much difference in skier visits.
South & West Colorado: 141% last year, 115-125% this year. Visits likely down also due to areas being remote destinations. Much better start than Northern Rockies, 130-150% on Dec. 22.
North & Central Colorado: 111% last year, 110-120% this year. This is the biggest volume region of typically 8+ million visits. Seasons were similar and I suspect skier visits also.
Northeast: 114% last year, in 110% range this year. Since the front end was good this year and business is drive-up, I suspect numbers aren't down much.

For an entire region to average 120+% of normal snow, that signifies an excellent year, top 15% in a more consistent region, top 25% in the most volatile regions (California and South & West Colorado). 2007-08 was as good as any season of the past 34 years in the US Northern Rockies and South & West Colorado. This year was among the top 3 of that time frame for Utah.

[Tony Crocker]

Regional breakdown of the 5.5% decline in skier visits:

Southeast up 2%
Northeast down 2%
Pac West, Rockies and Midwest down 7-8%

I ascribe the overall 5.5% decline to snow. Another shift of 2-3% from the destination resorts to closer places, presumably due to the economy. Very modest economic impact on skier visits, as I predicted last fall. Decline in spending is another story. There was a recent press release from SIA saying that equipment/clothing sales fell 12% this season, with most of that starting February or so.

[Bushwacker1951]

Even before the winter got going it was pretty obvious the destinations resorts in the Rockies were in for a tough year due to the economy.Bookings were way down. I think this cartoon in the Jackson Hole paper last December says it all. I think the snow conditions had something to do with the decline, hardly any new snow in the latter half of March and much of April for the northeast but the poor economy was the bigger reason.


People in the east didn't want to spend the money or the hassle to fly out west so they instead chose to stay closer to home and drive to their fav destination resort in northern NE and the small ski hills near the urban centers, especially those with night skiing were even bigger benefactors.

[jamesdeluxe]

http://www.firsttracksonline.com/News/2 ... f-in-2009/

Could someone cut through the EBITDA references/stats and give me the takeaway? I'm especially interested in how the cheap season passes affect earnings.