jamesdeluxe
Administrator
I'm fascinated by the way that as a rule, we base our destination trip plans on a "conditional probability" logic pattern that basically says, "Region A is known for its statistically consistent snow conditions, therefore, I have a better chance of good snow when I go there in two months. Therefore, I'm going to choose Region A over Region B or C, which have a less stellar record." Makes sense, but anecdotally (as I look over my ski-day lists over the past ten years), it's never worked out that way for me.
To give two recent examples, I went to New Mexico last season, which was having a below average season (and is one of the trickier western locales for snow), and scored beautiful conditions. I went to Quebec two separate times this season, which was also having a lackluster snow year, and had nonstop great conditions. So my question is, how much of your decision-making process for destination trips is based on conditional probability?
Take a look at this NY Times article and see how much/how little we can apply to skiing:
http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/20 ... n&emc=tya1
Do you consult detailed records like the ones on Tony's site before booking a trip more than a week in advance or just let it fly and see what happens? I do a little of both, but have had such good luck over the past few years in rolling the dice, I sometimes wonder what the point is.
To give two recent examples, I went to New Mexico last season, which was having a below average season (and is one of the trickier western locales for snow), and scored beautiful conditions. I went to Quebec two separate times this season, which was also having a lackluster snow year, and had nonstop great conditions. So my question is, how much of your decision-making process for destination trips is based on conditional probability?
Take a look at this NY Times article and see how much/how little we can apply to skiing:
http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/20 ... n&emc=tya1
Do you consult detailed records like the ones on Tony's site before booking a trip more than a week in advance or just let it fly and see what happens? I do a little of both, but have had such good luck over the past few years in rolling the dice, I sometimes wonder what the point is.