Event totals: 12.3” Snow/2.13” L.E.
Saturday 12/18/2010 6:00 A.M. update: At some point, last night’s flurries turned into accumulating snow overnight, and we wound up with 0.9 inches on the board this morning. Just when it seems the low pressure up north is done, it keeps on having an influence. From the BTV discussion this morning:
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 358 AM EST SATURDAY...PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ONTARIO/QUEBEC THIS MORNING. WK SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN ALONG THE COAST IS CREATING LGT WSW WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS FLOW MVG OVER LK ONTARIO...IS CONTINUING A LK EFFECT SNOW BAND. BULK OF -SW IS FALLING OVER SOUTHERN DACKS/ST LAW VALLEY...WITH SOME MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE CVLY. LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL RETROGRADE FURTHER WEST DURING THE MORNING HRS...ALLOWING FOR LK BAND TO ORIENTATE MORE N-S AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE CWA. AREAS NEAR LK ONTARIO WILL SEE ANOTHER 1-2" BFR TAPERING OFF...WHILE REST OF AREA CVLY AND WEST...WILL SEE AN INCH OR LESS. CLD COVER SLOW TO ERODE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY SO DO EXPECT SOME LGT -SW/--SW W/ NO ADDITIONAL ACCUM. GOING INTO TNGT...RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE NE REGION. MOST AREAS WILL SEE SKIES GOING PCLDY W/ TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.
The northern portions of Ontario and Quebec seem quite a distance away from here, so I was curious how we were still getting so much influence from that low. I pulled up the surface map from weather.com and it’s possible to just make out the low at the top of the image. The influence of the cyclonic flow is visible right down to the Great Lakes/international border:
Based on my records, we are now far enough along that the 7-day totals kept by the ski areas should represent the snowfall from just this latest event, so for those Vermont areas that report them, here’s what I’ve seen:
Jay Peak: 24”
Bolton Valley: 18”
Some details from the 6:00 A.M. observations at the house are below:
New Snow: 0.9 inches
New Liquid: 0.02 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 45.0
Snow Density: 2.2%
Temperature: 17.4 F
Sky: Mostly Clear/Flurries
Snow at the stake: 7.5 inches
After this event, it seems that the “out to sea Nor’easter” is still on to bring in some precipitation. After the daytime period today, our point forecast doesn’t have any sort of snow in it until Sunday night, which appears to be in association with that event:
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST SATURDAY...CORE OF SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUT WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SET UP NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THIS TIME. PUSH OF CD CANADIAN AIR WILL PERSIST...KEEPING TEMPS NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. LOW PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE WILL SWING MOISTURE ASHORE INTO THE AREA. WITH INCR MOISTURE/QPF POTENTIAL...CLD COVER WILL INCR ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR SOME LGT -SW. THIS SYSTEM OFFSHORE WAS SYSTEM EARLIER IN WEEK THAT MDLS WOULD HAVE KICKED ASHORE ENOUGH QPF TO WARRANT MAJOR WINTER EVENT...NOW SYSTEM TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.
With that system offshore, it looks like the December trend around here will continue:
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST SATURDAY...SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF DECEMBER WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. EXPECT ANOTHER UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST TO SPREAD SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD...EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL TEND TO CONCENTRATE ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FLOW ALOFT BACK TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND BRINGS ANY PRECIPITATION TO AN END. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.