advice for Colorado

[EMSC]

In all of the ironies, I've heard Vail is closed today.. but normally windy Eldora (while windy) is open. It's been super crazy windy in the whole front range for 3-4 days in a row now. Including huge winds overnight and much of the morning (as in, can hardly stand up in them winds). Nutty stuff.

[gores95]

More problematic conditions for Colorado (specifically Aspen/Snowmass).

Yesterday, temps reached 58 degrees in Aspen and were in the mid 50s in Snowmass. Now all lifts are closed today (December 31) at Snowmass due to extremely high winds. This is the first time I've ever experienced a complete wind hold in 26 years. We've had extremely high winds (the strongest I've ever witnessed) at elevation 8,800 feet since about 11:00 pm last night.

I can only imagine what the upper mountain will look like after this.

As of 12 noon limited lifts are open on Snowmass (Village Express, Sam's Knob, Alpine Springs, Sky Cab, Coney Glade). I won't be skiing unless Two Creeks opens.

Holy crap this is bleak. We will be in Aspen for four days of skiing on 1/15 and now I am nervous though the latest pattern change is slated for a week before that. I have seen a few of these pattern changes come and go with little change.

I tried to get a free change to our plane tickets to Vancouver/Whistler instead with no luck. Maybe I should just bite the bullet and pay for the change. I used miles.

I think I will just wait a week or so and see what happens.

[Tony Crocker]

Maybe I should just bite the bullet and pay for the change. I used miles.

This is a no-brainer IMHO. Do it now before the airline changes its mind and doesn't allow FF tickets to Vancouver at the last minute. Colorado snow almost always accumulates gradually rather than coming in massive Sierra/Wasatch dumps. No snow is forecast for the next week in Colorado. The chance of enough snow to turn that situation around in one week (Jan 7-15) is probably less than 5%.

With that next week widespread dry forecast this season is now solidly in 3rd place behind 1976-77 and 1980-81 for worst start in the 45 years I have enough info to determine. My Christmas week at Alta in 1986-87 was definitely better for skiing than this one. The weather was cold so surfaces did not deteriorate much, and it did snow 18 inches on Jan. 1.

[gores95]

Tony how is Whistler looking the next couple of weeks weather wise?

[Tony Crocker]

Whistler was in full operation before the 40 inches last week. Another 2 feet is forecast this week. Even if there were no snow forecast you have 8,000 acres of skiing on an average 69 inch base vs. the horror show egieszl reported last week at Snowmass. Do not hesitate, move that trip now while you can.

[johnnash]

As expected, Sarah and I got a rather late start today after NYE festivities, and we chose to ski Vail on a very abbreviated schedule. We headed up-mountain, and the good news is that there are no crowds and the surface conditions there aren’t a total disaster, as long as you stick to the groomers. Virtually no ice; mostly what you could charitably describe as packed powder, albeit packed pretty hard. Still, it was pleasant fast skiing. The bad news is that on the few bump runs that are still open, the troughs of the bumps are littered with core shots waiting to happen-- no joy there. And it will take a lot of snow to fix that; a few inches will just hide all those mines until somebody’s skis get ripped open. It was sunny all day, but at least at the top, I doubt that the temps got higher than the mid-20s, so there probably won’t be much further damage for now. I took the attached shot looking into the back bowls from near Two Elk Lodge. It is clear from this (and the web cam in Blue Sky) that the bowls do have snow cover, so if one nice storm were to blow through, they might be able to open them. But, alas, nothing’s in the forecast.
Plan for tomorrow is to get to know Beaver Creek, then drive down to Wolf Creek for a couple of days. As everyone on FTOL noted, they at least have a decent base, and according to NOAA, temps there should be a few degrees colder than at Vail, so hopefully surface conditions will not deteriorate over the next few days. If anyone has a recommendation for a place to stay near Wolf Creek, let me know.

[q]

Montana is looking pretty good at the minute in comparison to these horror stories!

Discovery is now 75% open. 55" YTD is just fine and looking like a good March for me. Big Mountain, Schweitzer, Lookout Pass, Red Mountain and Sliver Mountain all looking good too.

[Tony Crocker]

Montana is looking pretty good at the minute in comparison to these horror stories!

Very little of the November Northwest snowstorms pushed much farther east in the U.S. Northern Rockies than Schweitzer and December was dry until Christmas. Brundage was closed, Bridger was 21% open and Whitefish 31% after a delayed opening. Last week's storm has taken Montana from dismal to just late and below average. But that's an advantage of scheduling vacations in March. It takes a really awful season for snow coverage not to be there or to be melting out. With a below average snowpack I'd want contingencies to avoid the places with a lot of south facing terrain though.

[egieszl]

johnnash, do the bowls have cover over by High Noon Express? The area by Orient Express had cover when I flew over in mid-December and that lift looked like it might have been open, but according to their ski report all Back Bowls and Blue Sky Basin are closed.

I'm sad to report that conditions continue to get worse at Snowmass. Usually conditions improve over these weeks, not worsen. It's been nearly two weeks since our last snow fall and there is nothing in the forecast but sun and unusually warm temps. Unfortunately, the wind storm wrecked the snow coverage, stripped away any soft snow we had and created bare spots and exposed rocks. As a result they have closed some runs like Sheer Bliss, Glissade, Camp 3, a large portion of the Big Burn above Whispering Jesse, Wineskin and Dallas Freeway. Lunkerville below Lodgepole and Log Deck is now closed and they're using a never before used summer access road to move you over to Naked Lady or you can ski down Tom's Trace. (There was a snowcat working overtime this afternoon on Lunkerville.) Sneaky's which usually has the best snow now has coverage similar to how it was over Thanksgiving. There are actually small but growing bare spots now that the sun is taking advantage of at the top of the mountain! Thin spots, bare spots and areas of exposed dirt and rock are common over mid-mountain runs without snowmaking and all of Elk Camp and much of Two Creeks.

Surface conditions are slick hard packed and grooming is pretty much non-existent now, unless it is a run with man-made snow. Most of the runs they cannot groom. Unfortunately, snowmaking ceased operations as of December 31. There is a sign at the bottom of the Elk Camp chair today warning that there is no beginner terrain and no groomed runs. Coverage on Elk Camp and Alpine Springs is really poor with grassy spots, bare spots and exposed rocks that could be a catastrophe to hit. I ski at beginner speed because I have to evaluate and watch each turn.

The best coverage is in the terrain parks where the mountain used the majority of their water to build jumps. There is descent coverage on Fanny Hill, lower Hal's Hollow, upper Scooper, Banzai Ridge, Lower Green Cabin, skiers left on Max Park and Funnel. Last week some of the black diamond bump runs were skiing ok, but they're now slick and more and more rocks are exposed, troughs are in some cases barren.

I skied down Funnel Bypass (catwalk beginner run) today and not only are you hitting gravel in the snow for much of the way, but there large exposed rocks protruding several inches above the surface in spots. That's pathetic for a beginner run.

Overall, December 31 was the worst conditions I've ever experienced for a day in December at Snowmass and the 2nd worst conditions ever. Today, I would place the conditions at 3rd worst ever, and the worst ever for a day in January. That's with 26-years of experience skiing here.

We need a minimum of 24-30 inches to fall in a matter of a few days for conditions to significantly improve. A 6-12 inch storm isn't going to make a difference and it will only hide the numerous hazards. Basically coverage is so thin that in many areas it's like they're starting over.

[johnnash]

Today we skied Beaver Creek, and the conditions are pretty much the same as Vail's. I had hoped for better, thinking perhaps BC had more snow-making. A shuttle driver told us that BC had already exhausted their water quota for snow-making, boding really badly for the future. In any case, the situation was about like Vail -- decent surface on blue and green groomers (but a few brown spots), but ungroomed is really bad. BC groomed a few blacks, which were fun, but you still have to watch out for obstacles. This problem is magnified by the fact that the area had a huge windstorm Dec. 31, which blew a lot of debris onto the slopes, and it's hard to discern rocks from small pine cones!
Apologies to egieszsl -- I didn't get a look into the bowls around High Noon yesterday at Vail, so can't answer your question.

Tomorrow in Wolf Creek.

[Tony Crocker]

Tomorrow in Wolf Creek.

The Southwest is now in dry mode too. But at Wolf Creek you have a deep base and won't have coverage concerns. A deep base is also more insulated and should have less melt/freeze action that the places with a thin base do. Also Wolf Creek's snow is all natural and less likely to ice up than the manmade you were on at Vail/Beaver Creek.

Hopefully the last 2 days will convince you come up with a creative idea about Heavenly, which is far worse off than Vail/Beaver Creek. How about blowing off skiing, going to SF, Napa Valley, Big Sur, something like that?

[q]

Very little of the November Northwest snowstorms pushed much farther east in the U.S. Northern Rockies than Schweitzer and December was dry until Christmas. Brundage was closed, Bridger was 21% open and Whitefish 31% after a delayed opening. Last week's storm has taken Montana from dismal to just late and below average. But that's an advantage of scheduling vacations in March. It takes a really awful season for snow coverage not to be there or to be melting out. With a below average snowpack I'd want contingencies to avoid the places with a lot of south facing terrain though.

I plan my trip for March for a variety of reasons. Longer days, normally greater snowpack, cost etc etc.

I've been coming to the USA every year since 2000 always March/April. The 2nd year the first week was at Fernie which had a dreadful season up until the week we arrived and it snowed almost every day. 2004 had skimpy snow and an extremely dry March in SLC with a record temperature on the 31st in SLC of 80 degrees I think it was. 2005 Big Mountain closed early and I did not bother skiing there on arrival for my trip, it did not bode well yet within a day a 4 feet storm pounded other Montanan hills. Bogus Basin had been closed for the season weeks earlier but reopened amid huge storms when I skied there in early April. 2007 was not so kind early on as I changed plans a couple times and since then conditions have been ok.

My first two weeks at this early stage look ok, Utah should deliver but I can always cancel those and head to Canada again for 10 days to finish my trip should the need arise.

Moral of the story for me is conditions can very quickly change, don't book long in advance unless your happy to make do with whats there or are happy to just be with friends etc or make sure you can change. By flying to Missoula I have the best of everything. I can head north, south or west.

My dad and brother have their annual trip to Frisco in April.

[Tony Crocker]

By flying to Missoula I have the best of everything. I can head north, south or west.

In parts of your region 2001 and 2005 were exceptionally bad seasons. But if you have a month and a car you can still avoid bad conditions if you're willing to be flexible. That's what I'm doing from mid-January to mid-February.

[Skrad]

The 25% of Discovery that is closed is the very interesting terrain. The 75% that is open is flattish and served by slow chairs. They need more snow.

[dreamintoaction]

Well if you dont make it to Colorado --- you could try and win this and find another reason to get back there. assuming snow is good.
if not - i wonder what it means for the xgames. im sure theyve got a plan.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXPVkwIsVVk