Jay Peak Summit: Most Snow in the Lower 48 in 2014-15???

Tony Crocker":31tcw5i0 said:
Just to :stir: on Mt. Sutton again, here are JSpin's stated reasons for Jay's snowfall exceeding Mansfield's.

1) Shadowing. Sutton is at least as clear of the Adirondacks as Jay.
4) Latitude. Sutton is of course at least as far north also.
3) Isolation. I actually disagree with this one. By my experience isolated peaks tend to get less orographic uplift as weather can go around them whereas it must be forced over a longer perpendicular set of mountains. See Big Sky vs. the Tetons as Exhibit A. At any rate we can't have it both ways saying isolation enhances Jay's snow while diminishing Sutton's.
2) That leaves Orientation and 800 feet lower altitude (though still the same as Bolton's) as crashing Sutton's snowfall ~40% below Jay's. And JSpin's topographic map shows the relief just north of the border still on somewhat of a SW-NE orientation.

I used the term “isolation” since I’ve heard that used to describe Jay Peak’s setting before, but after really looking at its position on the map, perhaps “exposure” (to wind) is a better choice. It’s clear from the topographic map showing the Green Mountain spine that Jay Peak isn’t some sort of isolated peak like a volcano, it’s indeed part of the wall of the Greens:

vttopographicmap2.jpg


You’re right that we can’t have it both ways with regard to inclusion in the spine and isolation, but I guess it’s possible that Jay Peak has some favorable combination of inclusion in the spine along with that wind exposure Powderfreak spoke of with respect to decent orographics from multiple directions.

The Mont Sutton snowfall issue is interesting. I think the general feeling most people have around here in ski country is that annual snowfall steadily increases right up the Green Mountain spine in Vermont from south to north, peaks in the Northern Greens around the international border at Jay Peak, and then begins to fall off again as you head farther northward into the Canadian Green Mountains of the Eastern Townships. It’s funny, I’ve only skied the Eastern Townships once, but that snapshot of experience was exactly in line with the snowfall trend I just mentioned. Mont Sutton in the south near Jay Peak had by far the best snow, then I’d say Owl’s Head fell in somewhere behind it, and finally Mont Orford to the north had the least snow/poorest conditions. Mont Orford has some very challenging Jay Peak-style terrain, but of course relative to the somewhat tamer terrain at Mont Sutton, that only served to exaggerate the difference in snow quantity/quality. If indeed the annual snowfall at Mont Orford is half of what Jay Peak gets, it must be hard for them to get great coverage on a lot of the steep, natural terrain that’s available. Mont Orford may have slightly better preservation than Jay Peak since they have a bit more latitude, but that really doesn’t matter if you never get enough snow to get the off piste surfaces well covered to begin with. Snow quality will typically trump more aggressive terrain for me, so of the Eastern Townships areas that I’ve skied, Mont Sutton would definitely be the first one I’d want to visit again.* Clearly James experienced decent coverage at Mont Orford on his 2010 trip, but from what I witnessed, and the annual snowfall numbers they provide, I wonder how often the snow gets to that stage. After my trip to Mont Orford I was left with the impression that most of the time in the off piste it would be an experience of picking your way through minefields of debris due to poor coverage.

So with Mont Sutton only about 10 miles north of Jay Peak, why does the annual snowfall apparently drop off so sharply? I don’t know too much about the overall topography there, but I went to Google Earth and looked at the profile of the Mont Sutton-Jay Peak area from the all-important northwest direction. The Mont Sutton area, peaking with 3,156’ Sommet Rond, is on the left, the Jay Peak area with Jay Peak at 3,858’ is on the right, and the yellow line is the international border:

24JUN15A.jpg


I assume some orographics/snowfall are lost due to the ~700’ of vertical that the Mont Sutton area is giving up compared to Jay Peak, but it’s hard to say why the snowfall would drop off so much north of the international border. I guess the immediate Mont Sutton area might have a bit less expansive relief facing the northwest. Also, although it wasn’t evident in that topographic map I posted earlier because it’s cut off in the north, looking at an expansion of the map of the Canadian Green Mountains on Peakbagger.com:

24JUN15B.jpg


…the amount of relief is certainly falling off pretty quickly north of the Mont Sutton. Even more notable though is how much the width/girth of the range diminishes north of the border. Perhaps that overall area is simply a less effective “wall” for moisture – it certainly looks like it on that map relative to the expansive area south of the border in the Northern Greens down through Bolton. The general orientation of the range in the Mont Sutton area looks good with respect to a northwest wind though, even if the trails themselves face north and are lined up along an east-west ridge as Admin mentioned. Maybe the fact that their terrain faces north instead of a more leeward, easterly direction, plays a role in what they record for snow totals, but that could depend on where they make their snowfall measurements.

At what elevation is the snowfall measured for Mont Sutton? If it’s near the base, then I guess that could also account for a lot of the difference relative to Jay Peak, but if it’s up near 3,000’ then I guess that’s just the way it is, and it’s hard to argue with the fact that there is simply a huge difference in snowfall over the course of those 10 miles. Even if we can’t figure out why Mont Sutton gets so much less snow than Jay Peak, I’d argue that Mother Nature is taking every single factor into account; we just may not be aware of everything.

*This is only peripherally related, but it does concern the relatively high snowfall and snow quality at Mont Sutton. I noticed the quote from James’ February 2010 Sutton trip report: “…if you're ever in the area with snow coming down hard, stop at Sutton... on a day like this, it's nirvana.” That comment struck a chord because we experienced some of that during our 2001 trip; we found our way to the western end of the resort’s terrain and discovered acres and acres of untracked powder in the trees – then it snowed hard, dropped a quick inch, and brought things up another notch on piste as well. That inch was probably so welcomed simply because we’d experienced such blasé conditions the previous day at Mont Orford, but even without that, the conditions and coverage were simply better. It was yet another snapshot of what appears to be a common theme in snowfall between the two resorts. Even though the annual snowfall falls off somewhat at Mont Sutton compared to Jay Peak, Mont Sutton still appears to be in an area that can get in on some of the “extra” snow that sets its conditions apart from neighboring areas to the north.
 
jamesdeluxe":39yzao05 said:
Why are you busting on Sutton? The annual snowfall quote on their website isn't inflated: 500 cm/approx 200 inches.

As my Feb 2010 visit demonstrated, it's sometimes better to have a foot of undisturbed fresh than 16-18 inches of wind-jacked and lift holds.

Tony Crocker":39yzao05 said:
Not busting on Sutton. I just think the huge disparity between Sutton and Jay given their proximity is curious. And when you go through JSpin's criteria it becomes even more curious. It's like the difference between LCC and the Park City group. In nearly all such situations the drier area is in the precipitation shadow of the snowier one, which is not the case here. Burke, which is barely higher than Sutton and IS in the precipitation shadow of the Green Mt. spine, claims 248 inches.

No way that Burke gets 248" and Sutton gets 200"...absolutely no way. If anything, Sutton should be 248" and Burke is 200". I can't believe Burke says 248"? I was thinking like 180" at the summit of Burke, if that.
 
Tony Crocker":97g54g4d said:
Informative comments by powderfreak above. Legitimate snow measurements should be taken where wind neither adds to nor subtracts from snow totals in the long run. I'm sure that's the objective at Alta Collins and also where powderfreak measures at Stowe. Evidently this is not the case at Jay.

It is a point of contention I've heard in the ski industry before... if there's 18" of snow on a trail or in a bowl or in a glade or whatever, isn't that what a snow report is supposed to tell folks regardless of where that snow came from? If 12" falls but all blows into an area of the ski area creating 18" while bare rocks line the summit, some folks will actually try to make a case that 18" should be reported because that's what skiers and riders are going through. I have too much respect for meteorology and the science involved in measuring snow"fall" (not snow "on the trail") to not try to cheat it by cherry picking the location of a snow stake.

But what would help Jay I think, is to actually get a stake and a snow board and physically measure it...and show people that you do it. Even if the location is in a like multi-acre sized drift, its a good start to build some credibility amongst the more weather savvy skiers. Most folks (even such as the NWS meteorologists I know at BTV) know Jay Peak gets the most snow in Vermont on an annual basis because it makes sense, but there's certainly a lot of skepticism on just how much more Jay gets. In reality it should be in the range of like say the difference between Sugarbush and Stowe. Say up to 50" over the course of a season...not 60-100" like we've seen in some recent years.
 
I've been looking at a topo map of the Sutton and Jay Peak area....and I've got nothing to explain the huge difference in snowfall. I honestly can't see how Sutton wouldn't be in the same range as the northern Greens...its essentially the same chain just 10 miles north. Maybe the orographics would be slightly less, but overall I can't come up with any smoking gun as to why they wouldn't be in the same range. If anything, in upslope situations with a low pressure off to the northeast and cyclonic flow, I would think Sutton would do just as good as Jay and probably more than Smuggs/Stowe/Bolton.

I just can't figure that one out.
 
Related to this conversation I've always loved this photo from last winter of the Spine around Mt Mansfield/Stowe.

This is looking west towards the Champlain Valley at the top of the photo, and the town of Stowe is in the bottom of the photo. It also looks like the west slopes in this photo are slightly "whiter" indicating a recent snowfall likely stacked on tree branches.

GreenMountainSpineAaerial_zpscmzy2huz.png
 
powderfreak":e1ejx5zw said:
No way that Burke gets 248" and Sutton gets 200"...absolutely no way. If anything, Sutton should be 248" and Burke is 200". I can't believe Burke says 248"? I was thinking like 180" at the summit of Burke, if that.
That 248 is a "brochure quote." I have never called/inquired there. We accepted it for http://zrankings.com/resort/snow and perhaps we should not have.

As for Sutton, I'm now considering giving them a call. Their website has season snowfall going all the way back into the 1960's. It's only opening date to closing date though. I have daily records from Jay since 2001, can use those to project out to Nov. 1 - Apr. 30, result is still only 207 inches average for Sutton. My guess is that Sutton measures at somewhat low elevation, but for now that's just a guess.

But it's interesting that the people who actually live and/or ski up there think the big snowfall dropoff should be between Sutton and Orford, not between Jay and Sutton.
 
powderfreak":2xbuesan said:
1) They have no set stakes or any true system for measuring snow. The person stated its too windy and snowfall varies too much to only measure in fixed locations. The range of snowfall given on the report is there to give you an approximation of what you'll find on the hill. Most days it could be 0-24".

2) Its mostly an eyeball and gut feeling on snowfall. Snow Reporters can get very good at estimating snowfall over time, but when giving snowfall ranges what often ends up happening is the upper number is the drifted side of the trail. As skiers we are drawn to the "deeper side of the trail" so say you ski a run and the whole right side it was knee deep and billowing. "There was at least 15 inches out there!" That's what happens when you don't measure in the same place every single time. You end up almost cherry picking the deep lines and that's how much snow fell.

Which are precisely two of the criticisms I maintained from a decade working there in the 90s.

And regarding Sutton, I already explained that. A narrow east/west ridge orientation does not contribute well to orographic lift.
 
Nice to see the Townships getting some attention from the snow experts, even if the region comes up short compared to NVT. Anecdotally (which is all that really matters =;), I've always done very well there.
 
jamesdeluxe":3c176v7r said:
Anecdotally (which is all that really matters =;), I've always done very well there.
In these situations it's important to analyze why you have or have not done well there. If you were there a couple of days and it dumped 2 feet that's luck. If you were skiing powder top to bottom at Sutton while half of Jay was on wind hold, that's important information for future reference.
 
Can someone summarize the conclusions of this thread in four easy to read bullet points? Who won? :p
 
1. In most snow events , the higher the elevation, the more accumulation.
No surprise to even the most casual skier.
 
Admin was correct to say that accurately measuring Jay's snow at the summit is pure folly due to the insane winds.
Admin was correct that Jay's snow measuring process leaves a lot to be desired, especially considering that snow is its big market differentiator, and that they often err on the side of overestimating rather than underestimating.
Admin was not quite correct to claim that the large discrepancy between base and summit was BS. Powderfreak and JSpin both said that it's very much possible.
:bow:

Did I pass the test?
 
jamesdeluxe":3ewawcuv said:
Did I pass the test?
Yes. Outstanding questions remain.
1) How much, if any extra snow, does Jay get vs. Mt. Mansfield? Not easily resolvable due to Jay's imprecise snowfall methodology.
2) Where and why does snowfall decline rapidly as you go north of the US-Canada border? Beyond Mt. Sutton, elevation, orientation and overall barrier size of mountains are logical negative factors. Sutton itself remains a question according to JSpin and powderfreak, so I'm trying to contact Sutton directly, with no success so far.
jamesdeluxe":3ewawcuv said:
Admin was not quite correct to claim that the large discrepancy between base and summit was BS.
He wasn't correct at all. a 25% difference is very common, fairly routine in Colorado where rain has zero influence. At some places like Squaw Valley and Park City it's much more. At Alta that difference is unusually low, which would understandably influence admin's view on the topic. The difference between the UDOT measurements at Alta's base and the ski area's measurements halfway up the hill are less than 10%. Alta's snowfall is impressive by any measure, but for the base of the ski area it's especially remarkable.
 
Harvey44":2wztzjcj said:
Can someone summarize the conclusions of this thread in four easy to read bullet points? Who won? :p
I'll use one word: Me. :wink:
 
Tony Crocker":264mfq3f said:
jamesdeluxe":264mfq3f said:
Admin was not quite correct to claim that the large discrepancy between base and summit was BS.
He wasn't correct at all. a 25% difference is very common, fairly routine in Colorado where rain has zero influence.

I called BS on a 47% difference, not 25%.
 
Admin":1y088e1n said:
Tony Crocker":1y088e1n said:
jamesdeluxe":1y088e1n said:
Admin was not quite correct to claim that the large discrepancy between base and summit was BS.
He wasn't correct at all. a 25% difference is very common, fairly routine in Colorado where rain has zero influence.
I called BS on a 47% difference, not 25%.
Winter Park averages 213 at 9,265 feet and 349 about 2/3 of the way up the mountain at 10,800 feet. That's 39%. If this is the long term average difference someplace it never rains in the winter, it's not unreasonable that it could happen in a Vermont winter with unusually little rain.

Admin":1y088e1n said:
Harvey44":1y088e1n said:
Can someone summarize the conclusions of this thread in four easy to read bullet points? Who won? :p
I'll use one word: Me. :wink:
Did admin bother to read anything that JSpin and powderfreak wrote???
powderfreak":1y088e1n said:
Regarding the bold...the differences in upper mountain snowfall in the Greens is not tied to rain/snow events. For example, this past season I measured as diligently as one possibly can in a mountain environment on two snowboards, and came up with 170" at the base and 284" at the summit. I've done the numbers before and regardless of the type of winter, the upper mountain plot (3,014ft) will receive somewhere between 30-40% more than the base at 1,550ft. Its almost fail-proof. If the upper plot gets 300", the base will be around 200" or at least that's the general association.
The only point admin was correct about was Jay's seat-of-the-pants snow reporting methods, which are evidently the same now as when he worked there.

And perhaps admin could attend to FTO a bit more and tell us where the 2014-15 season recap thread went??? :stir:
 
Tony Crocker":3cbtkua9 said:
jamesdeluxe":3cbtkua9 said:
Did I pass the test?
Yes. Outstanding questions remain.
1) How much, if any extra snow, does Jay get vs. Mt. Mansfield? Not easily resolvable due to Jay's imprecise snowfall methodology.
2) Where and why does snowfall decline rapidly as you go north of the US-Canada border? Beyond Mt. Sutton, elevation, orientation and overall barrier size of mountains are logical negative factors. Sutton itself remains a question according to JSpin and powderfreak, so I'm trying to contact Sutton directly, with no success so far.
jamesdeluxe":3cbtkua9 said:
Admin was not quite correct to claim that the large discrepancy between base and summit was BS.
He wasn't correct at all. a 25% difference is very common, fairly routine in Colorado where rain has zero influence. At some places like Squaw Valley and Park City it's much more. At Alta that difference is unusually low, which would understandably influence admin's view on the topic. The difference between the UDOT measurements at Alta's base and the ski area's measurements halfway up the hill are less than 10%. Alta's snowfall is impressive by any measure, but for the base of the ski area it's especially remarkable.

1) My gut would say the increase would be consistent with the steady rise in accumulation as you move up the Spine. That would put Jay at probably 10-15% more than Stowe/Smuggs/Bolton, as those areas get 10-15% more than Sugarbush. That could put Jay as much as 30-45" more than Stowe over the course of a season, which is pretty much what Stowe does over Sugarbush most years. Recently there have been some winters where Jay has reported up to 100" more than Stowe/Smuggs just one county south. For example just this past winter, Stowe's 284" and Smuggs 272" (which I believe that difference was from November, with both areas identical in snowfall Dec-Apr) were countered by Jay Peak reporting 373". That just isn't anywhere near possible to me, especially given the character of storms this past winter. There was no notable event(s) where it was say raining in Lamoille county and snowing in Orleans county. No event where Jay got like 3 feet while only 10" fell one county south.

The only way Jay could report 100" more than Smuggs is if where they are "taking their measurments" (ie skiing through powder and estimating depths, possibly in drifts) is if the spot they often ski accumulates like 1.5 times reality due to drifting (say on the Face chute glades). Say 12" falls, but that given area of the mountain receives and skis 18" deep (with bare windswept summit), that's what you see on the report. I think Admin's accounts just reinforce this to me based on what a person with close knowledge to this seasons' snow reporting said. Similar to like if Mammoth Mountain measured snow in the 50-foot deep drifts just under the bare rock summit ridge.

My take is that skiers & riders should be able to find deeper areas than the top number on a snow report due to wind-loading. That's where people often assume my stakes under-report but I truly believe I have a very representative spot. Skiers know the deep parts on the mountain...every mountain has them. That spot when a foot of snow falls and you know that certain glade or aspect is going to be DEEP. I should run a study one of these seasons and stick a board in terrain well known for being deeper than anywhere else, and see what the difference is. Maybe I could get a 360" average there or something, haha.

2) Sutton remains a big question for me. I don't believe it is too narrow or too small to not have orographic lift like Jay Peak. A 200" average there has to be wrong, IMO. This season though, they recorded 502cm which is 197". So that would mean that Jay Peak, only 10 miles as the crow flies, picked up 180" more snow than them. That doesn't sit right and I really can't see how that could ever happen, honestly.
 
Tony Crocker":2upm6yxe said:
Tony Crocker":2upm6yxe said:
jamesdeluxe":2upm6yxe said:
Admin was not quite correct to claim that the large discrepancy between base and summit was BS.
He wasn't correct at all. a 25% difference is very common, fairly routine in Colorado where rain has zero influence.

Winter Park averages 213 at 9,265 feet and 349 about 2/3 of the way up the mountain at 10,800 feet. That's 39%. If this is the long term average difference someplace it never rains in the winter, it's not unreasonable that it could happen in a Vermont winter with unusually little rain.

This one again comes down to understanding the local climate and snowflake physics with regards to humidity. The east coast is a "humid" spot compared to out west on the whole, but in winter our precipitable water values (PWATS) are actually at similar values to out west. That is the amount of water that could be squeezed out of the atmosphere is very similar. In orographic precipitation situations, you have precipitation highly tied to the terrain, and with drier air in the low levels and saturated air from mid-mountain and higher...you get much better snowflake growth up high because the arms of the flakes haven't been eaten away by sub-saturated air. Every millimeter you take off a snowflake, the less the accumulation is going to be, even with exactly the same amount of total precip. So say down at the base you are getting good quarter to half inch sized dendrites falling at 1"/hr...but up where RH is 100% in the cloud just below the zone where the snowflakes are being formed, you could be getting half inch or larger dendrites falling at 1.5" or 2"/hr.

We see it quite a bit even in synoptic storms...where the term "virga storm" comes in. The radar is looking really good but you're looking out your window in the valley seeing only flurries falling. But the radar looks like it should be moderate snow. That's because the radar beam is 6,000ft off the deck where it is snowing moderately. So the higher up you go, the harder it is precipitating...and that holds all year around.
 
As noted before the 373 is the "upper" measurement. When you average it with the 2014 at the base, the resulting 294 is quite in line with Stowe and Smuggs.
powderfreak":31nmc15b said:
A 200" average there has to be wrong, IMO. This season though, they recorded 502cm which is 197". So that would mean that Jay Peak, only 10 miles as the crow flies, picked up 180" more snow than them. That doesn't sit right and I really can't see how that could ever happen, honestly.
James pointed me to the right contact person at Sutton. I have learned 2 relevant facts:
1) Sutton's snow is measured near the base at 1,300 feet. My projected long term average there is 207 inches. This is surely the main reason for the numbers being lower than we expect. Mid-mountain rates to be in the 240-250 range.
2) Sutton's snow is measured "in a box." Now we get into the issues discussed before with the Mansfield Stake's canister vs. the more established practice of a snow board. I have asked for the dimensions of the box.
 
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