Western Weather 2016-17

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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Admin » Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:53 am

After a relentless series of storms, it's time for our mid-January dry spell.

Wasatch Snow Forecast wrote:The low will eventually split a bit with a southern trajectory bringing some active weather to southern Utah Thursday and Friday while northern Utah dries out. Then, we all clear out for the weekend with warming mountain temps (and valley inversions).

Long Range:

Definitely looks like our first extended break in a long time. Right now, it looks like we stay dry until later next week (around the 19th). After that, we should see the west coast get more active again, although it’s too far out for any details at this point.
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby EMSC » Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:42 am

100% High avi danger in Colo today. Not a time to be in the backcountry, slack country or possibly even some of the inbounds I suspect is closed.

Capture.JPG


And to further :stir: I'm pretty sure I don't consider a 5-7 day period in the midst of historic snowfalls to exactly be a 'dry spell'. Let me know when you get little more than a couple inches (at most) scattered over 2-3 weeks and then we'll call it a 'dry spell'. You have big snows coming through about the 12th and then the next storm prognosticated on the 19th. That's called typical short term weather, not a 'dry spell'.
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Admin » Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:51 am

Work with me here. ;-)
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Marc_C » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:15 am

Admin wrote:I've seen that happen over here, too. It was either last year or the year before, but Alta didn't even bother to open one day due to avi danger.

Powder Mountain was closed yesterday(?) due to "unstable snow conditions" and Sundance closed at noon for the same reason plus wind.
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby EMSC » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:17 am

Admin wrote:Work with me here.


Dry Slot in the midst of storms?

And lots of weather related news. I-70 closed from Vail to Copper from Avi debris
http://www.denverpost.com/2017/01/10/avalanches-close-colorado-mountain-roads/

CB is open again today, but Monarch is closed since Rt50 was closed all afternoon and last night so ski resort workers have been unable to get up and dig out among other tasks.
http://www.denverpost.com/2017/01/10/monarch-mountain-colorado-ski-area-closed/
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Marc_C » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:21 am

EMSC wrote:And to further :stir: I'm pretty sure I don't consider a 5-7 day period in the midst of historic snowfalls to exactly be a 'dry spell'.

First, these aren't "historic snowfalls" in Utah.

Secondly, the words aren't coming from us, but, you know, meteorologists....
Wasatch Snow Forecast wrote:The low will eventually split a bit with a southern trajectory bringing some active weather to southern Utah Thursday and Friday while northern Utah dries out. Then, we all clear out for the weekend with warming mountain temps (and valley inversions).

Long Range:

Definitely looks like our first extended break in a long time. Right now, it looks like we stay dry until later next week (around the 19th). After that, we should see the west coast get more active again, although it’s too far out for any details at this point.
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Tony Crocker » Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:39 pm

I'll agree with MarcC on this one. January 2017 will probably be a fairly average winter month in the Wasatch, meaning 7-8 feet of snow in LCC and maybe only snowing half the days in the month. :-({|=
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby EMSC » Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:57 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:I'll agree with MarcC on this one. January 2017 will probably be a fairly average winter month in the Wasatch, meaning 7-8 feet of snow in LCC and maybe only snowing half the days in the month. :-({|=


Odd that Ootah is just average in the last few weeks when the states on either side of it are not. I note that Eldora has more 30 day snowfall than Alta :shock:

That sure ain't normal.

I also note that ootah had both a 6 day and 5 day 'dry spell' in the last 30 days. Oddly they weren't in January though, so I guess the weather folks over there must have somehow missed those "extended breaks" when they happened. :stir: Sorry just can't resist. I'm willing to bet the worst of the worst inversions probably do happen in January, when they do actually happen. But not ever buying the "never visit in mid-Jan because we always have January inversions" theory.
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby EMSC » Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:14 pm

Aaaand, more avi's onto I70 near the tunnels (west side), and Abasin ordered to evacuate so CDOT can do more extensive avi control all the way down Rt6 to Keystone (Loveland Pass having been long since closed).
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Marc_C » Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:21 pm

EMSC wrote:I also note that ootah had both a 6 day and 5 day 'dry spell' in the last 30 days. Oddly they weren't in January though, so I guess the weather folks over there must have somehow missed those "extended breaks" when they happened. :stir: Sorry just can't resist. I'm willing to bet the worst of the worst inversions probably do happen in January, when they do actually happen. But not ever buying the "never visit in mid-Jan because we always have January inversions" theory.

That is a total misrepresentation of what we (me, Admin, local meteorologists) have been saying.
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Tony Crocker » Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:42 pm

EMSC wrote:Odd that Ootah is just average in the last few weeks when the states on either side of it are not. I note that Eldora has more 30 day snowfall than Alta :shock: That sure ain't normal.

Overall on January 8 I had Utah at 112% of normal snowfall and northern and central Colorado at 106%. It's southern and western Colorado that's at 143%. But within region there are some odd anomalies in season-to-date snowfalls. How about this: Aspen 140 inches, Vail 103 inches, Keystone 132 inches? In last week's storm Aspen and Crested Butte got hammered, nearly as much snow as Wolf Creek, yet Telluride, Purgatory and Taos got less than half as much snow. The Tetons are like Utah season-to-date, just modestly above average. At any rate all of these numbers are going to be much bigger a week from now. http://bestsnow.net/seas17.htm

EMSC wrote:But not ever buying the "never visit in mid-Jan because we always have January inversions" theory.

Marc_C wrote:That is a total misrepresentation of what we (me, Admin, local meteorologists) have been saying.

I'm pleased to hear that this misleading recommendation is no longer operative.
Marc_C wrote: And they usually tend to happen mid-January. Sometimes there's an outlier in December or February, but over the past 12 years of direct experience, if there's one time period I don't recommend to visitors, it's from about Jan 5 to Jan 25, or thereabouts. That may or may not be true next season, but it is this year, and last,...
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby tseeb » Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:16 pm

Admin wrote:
Tony Crocker wrote:Every ski area in the Sierra was closed Sunday with high winds and the rain/snow line at 10,000 feet.


http://www.firsttracksonline.com/2017/0 ... he-sierra/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Kirkwood ran a couple of not very exciting lifts Monday PM. Heavenly ran Gunbarrel hi-speed quad and their tram on Tuesday. Northstar did not run lifts that were steep enough to ski the 3' that fell and also closed early. But the Vail Tahoe resorts are trying.
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby EMSC » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:09 pm

Today's Avi map still looks like yesterdays Avi map for Colorado. Basically, "Stay the h#!! out of the backcountry".

Abasin still not operating. Rt 6 closed for avi work on both sides of them... it is still snowing of course too. Could be a long week for them. At least Monarch is operating again today.
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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby Marc_C » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:17 pm

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Re: Western Weather 2016-17

Postby EMSC » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:21 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:here are some odd anomalies in season-to-date snowfalls. How about this: Aspen 140 inches, Vail 103 inches, Keystone 132 inches? In last week's storm Aspen and Crested Butte got hammered, nearly as much snow as Wolf Creek, yet Telluride, Purgatory and Taos got less than half as much snow.


Multiple anomalies this year for certain. I might add Vail and Beaver Creek as anomalies on the bad side of the ledger on a relative basis. CB, Keystone and Eldora stick out to me as big anomalies from normal patterns on the good side of the relative snowfall ledger.

eg Apparently Eldora, which never gets snow from normal storms that have a SW wind, actually does get snow (and big snow) when that SW wind has so much moisture with it that there is still snow in the air after all those mtn ranges in the way (gets a continental divide boost of some kind when THAT much moisture is in the air). It's been weird to see in person after so many SW wind storms that deliver grey clouds to Eldora over the years but nary a flake otherwise. Best guess is it is a similar story for Keystone also being close enough to the divide to reap the benefit from so much moisture in the air being lifted that high. Can't figure out the CB overabundance story though.
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