Mammoth acquired by new Aspen&KSL group

It's lucky FTO has EMSC around to keep on top of news in the ski industry these days. For personal reasons it's understandable why FTO's last News post was March 18. But surely this week's Aspen/KSL alliance and purchases are a YUUUGE story in the North American ski industry.

As for the Mammoth story I'm far from surprised and somewhat relieved. The Starwood private equity group has surely not been happy with the top of the market purchase of Mammoth in 2006 and the ensuing debt restructuring after the 2012 bad season. The Denver Post article comments that Rob Katz of Vail has had his eye on Mammoth for a long time. I'm sure Rusty Gregory told his Starwood partners in 2014 that Mammoth had to buy Big Bear to keep it out of Vail's hands, which could be damaging to Mammoth long term.

Despite KSL's negative reputation I'm hopeful Aspen will run a more decentralized model than Vail. We know Aspen believes in ski areas having distinct cultures.

What's really up in air is the fate of Mountain Collective and MAX Pass in 2018-19. Obviously we want to see Mammoth and AltaBird in the same pass family. But even if this breaks up it's probably better for Mammoth to be in this new group vs. part of Vail.
 
Tony Crocker":uzij9700 said:
in 2014 that Mammoth had to buy Big Bear to keep it out of Vail's hands, which could be damaging to Mammoth long term.
I know nothing about the CA scene -- could you explain?
 
jamesdeluxe":1f6r4wzh said:
Tony Crocker":1f6r4wzh said:
in 2014 that Mammoth had to buy Big Bear to keep it out of Vail's hands, which could be damaging to Mammoth long term.
I know nothing about the CA scene -- could you explain?

If Vail bought Mtn Creek NJ (or maybe Hunter is a better example) and you could get in 5-10 local days and then use the same pass at any of the Vail resorts in the west... How many folks would take that and hit Vail/canyons/tahoe by flying instead of schlepping in cars for the 6 hrs each way to Mammoth for several weekends? Not everyone, but enough to matter for both Vail (positive) and Mammoth's (negative) bottom lines.

Big Bear being the best of the smallish Socal ski mtns for average folks (my understanding).
 
EMSC":nuyb6bgu said:
Marc_C":nuyb6bgu said:
Here's one take on it:
https://gonerparty.com/2017/04/12/and-now-theyve-got-mammoth/

"KSL/Aspen’s new Death Star conglomerate shoots down California’s signature mountain — and much of the dream dies with it."

Talk about hyperbole. That article is filled with it; along with tons of assumptions and bias right from the opening paragraph.
Seems like every article on that site is bemoaning the death of Western Civilization.
I'll admit, I was unable to read the entire article. And I think the author should seek professional help.
 
Marc_C":15ujf9f6 said:
Here's one take on it:
https://gonerparty.com/2017/04/12/and-now-theyve-got-mammoth/

"KSL/Aspen’s new Death Star conglomerate shoots down California’s signature mountain — and much of the dream dies with it."

Thanks for the link. That writer is very funny. I read a few of his "columns" or blog posts about what's happening in the ski business (nothing good, in his opinion!). His post on how Vail stole Park City is hilarious. I was laughing so hard at work, I had tears in my eyes.
 
The writer Andrew Pridgen seems to forget that Mammoth's majority owner since 2006, Starwood Capital, is a private equity firm not so different from KSL.
“We had greater plans for Mammoth but the Great Recession and then some less favorable weather, interfered with our strategic aspirations in a finite life investment vehicle
This, from the horse's mouth, confirms that Starwood was not into running Mammoth long term, and by implication the alternative to this deal was acquisition by Vail.

No question Rusty Gregory is far more competent running a ski area than Andy Wirth. Today's press release says Rusty will remain in charge at Mammoth.

But yes it's curious what KSL's strategy is considering how controversial their operation is at the one ski resort they own now, Squaw/Alpine. Pridgen has written a few disparaging articles about KSL and Squaw, including advocating a boycott. Amusingly he speculated that KSL's exit strategy for Squaw was to sell out to Vail.

EMSC":bf3yicev said:
If Vail bought Mtn Creek NJ (or maybe Hunter is a better example) and you could get in 5-10 local days and then use the same pass at any of the Vail resorts in the west... How many folks would take that and hit Vail/canyons/tahoe by flying instead of schlepping in cars for the 6 hrs each way to Mammoth for several weekends? Not everyone, but enough to matter for both Vail (positive) and Mammoth's (negative) bottom lines.
Even more extreme than that. Presumably Hunter is the biggest NYC metro daytrip area, but what percent of that market does it represent? Big Bear does 800K skier visits and is easily 75% of the SoCal daytrip market. And SoCal residents are still close to 90% of Mammoth's average 1.2 million skier visits.

FYI Liz, one of the few people who has skied both Hunter and Big Bear, sees a lot in common there.
 
Tony Crocker":2vzhnbg7 said:
Presumably Hunter is the biggest NYC metro daytrip area, but what percent of that market does it represent?
I'll ask around and post whatever I find; however, don't forget that the Poconos hills are very popular among NYC/NJ skiing families. We often default to thinking that people who post on ski forums represent the majority of revenue, when that isn't necessarily the case.
 
That was my point. When you consider the Poconos, Mountain Creek, Belleayre, Plattekill, I'll bet Hunter has no more than half as much market share as Big Bear does in SoCal.

Nonetheless I'm sure Vail would be plenty interested in Hunter if it were for sale.
 
Tony Crocker":jvwijnkj said:
The writer Andrew Pridgen seems to forget that Mammoth's majority owner since 2006, Starwood Capital, is a private equity firm not so different from KSL.
“We had greater plans for Mammoth but the Great Recession and then some less favorable weather, interfered with our strategic aspirations in a finite life investment vehicle
This, from the horse's mouth, confirms that Starwood was not into running Mammoth long term, and by implication the alternative to this deal was acquisition by Vail.

No question Rusty Gregory is far more competent running a ski area than Andy Wirth. Today's press release says Rusty will remain in charge at Mammoth.

But yes it's curious what KSL's strategy is considering how controversial their operation is at the one ski resort they own now, Squaw/Alpine. Pridgen has written a few disparaging articles about KSL and Squaw, including advocating a boycott. Amusingly he speculated that KSL's exit strategy for Squaw was to sell out to Vail.

EMSC":jvwijnkj said:
If Vail bought Mtn Creek NJ (or maybe Hunter is a better example) and you could get in 5-10 local days and then use the same pass at any of the Vail resorts in the west... How many folks would take that and hit Vail/canyons/tahoe by flying instead of schlepping in cars for the 6 hrs each way to Mammoth for several weekends? Not everyone, but enough to matter for both Vail (positive) and Mammoth's (negative) bottom lines.
Even more extreme than that. Presumably Hunter is the biggest NYC metro daytrip area, but what percent of that market does it represent? Big Bear does 800K skier visits and is easily 75% of the SoCal daytrip market. And SoCal residents are still close to 90% of Mammoth's average 1.2 million skier visits.

FYI Liz, one of the few people who has skied both Hunter and Big Bear, sees a lot in common there.

I have no clue what the actual percent numbers might be for Metro NYC daytrip skiers, but I'd be amazed if Hunter has more than 20% or so of that number. There's a fair number of other options for New York skiers, including the Poconos, the Berkshires, other NY ski areas (Windham, etc.). Having said that, I do think it would make sense for Vail (or one of the other large ski area conglomerates) to buy an area like Hunter (if it were for sale?) to get access to all those skiers.
 
berkshireskier":3ggizud2 said:
I have no clue what the actual percent numbers might be for Metro NYC daytrip skiers, but I'd be amazed if Hunter has more than 20% or so of that number. There's a fair number of other options for New York skiers, including the Poconos, the Berkshires, other NY ski areas (Windham, etc.).
The southern VT areas up to Killington are also highly popular NYC bus day trips.
 
Liz used to do those bus trips. The bus to Hunter on Wednesdays was her favorite. The farthest she ever went on a day bus was Mt. Snow, and she thinks that's too far for a day bus. Even including the Berkshires, Liz believes Hunter has the best quality of day skiing from NYC and thinks its market share is in the 30% range. I do know that in big natural snow years in SoCal, Mt. High can have 500K visits. Even then Baldy only gets about 50K, Snow Valley maybe 100K, leaving Big Bear still at 50+% of the market. Big Bear has had at least 75% of the SoCal daytrip market for the past 6 seasons.

Back on topic, Mammoth Times' take...
http://mammothtimes.com/content/mammoth-mountain-sold
By:
Wendilyn Grasseschi
Times Reporter
wendilyn@mammothtimes.com
Thursday, April 13, 2017
MAMMOTH LAKES, CA
 
Tony Crocker":3bahntdu said:
Liz used to do those bus trips. The bus to Hunter on Wednesdays was her favorite. The farthest she ever went on a day bus was Mt. Snow, and she thinks that's too far for a day bus. Even including the Berkshires, Liz believes Hunter has the best quality of day skiing from NYC and thinks its market share is in the 30% range. I do know that in big natural snow years in SoCal, Mt. High can have 500K visits. Even then Baldy only gets about 50K, Snow Valley maybe 100K, leaving Big Bear still at 50+% of the market. Big Bear has had at least 75% of the SoCal daytrip market for the past 6 seasons.

Back on topic, Mammoth Times' take...
http://mammothtimes.com/content/mammoth-mountain-sold
By:
Wendilyn Grasseschi
Times Reporter
wendilyn@mammothtimes.com
Thursday, April 13, 2017
MAMMOTH LAKES, CA

Yea, no doubt that Hunter is the best skiing within a reasonable day trip from NYC (or the immediate NYC suburbs) and Windham (just north of Hunter in the Catskills) is maybe number two. Southern VT (Stratton, Mt. Snow, Okemo, or, farther north, Killington) are a much longer trip - 4 or more hours each way - for a day skiing trip from the NYC area. The ski areas in the Berkshires - Ski Butternut, Catamount, and Jiminy Peak - are definitely a step down from Hunter or Windham in terms of vertical and terrain. My local mountain in the southern Berkshires does draw a lot of skiers from the NYC area, Westchester County, and Fairfield County in CT with cheap season passes for adults and kids and extensive race and lesson programs for kids (allowing the parents to ski on their own) and family friendly atmosphere with decent terrain (1000 ft of vertical, 15 to 20 trails and 5 chairlifts) within a two-hour or so driving distance. Southern Vermont skiing is a lot more expensive and another 1 to 2 hour driving distance and, for a lot of people, not worth the extra cost and time travel.
 
berkshireskier":1ndbb6ra said:
Southern VT (Stratton, Mt. Snow, Okemo, or, farther north, Killington) are a much longer trip - 4 or more hours each way - for a day skiing trip from the NYC area.
Hence the popularity of the club bus trips. I know someone who lives in Manhattan and does a one-day Killington bus trip at least a dozen times a season.
 
Liz' view in term of distance travel from NYC is that the big step up in quality as you go north is between Okemo and Killington. Thus she tended most often to go to Killington for weekends and Hunter for day trips. I suspect this is a plurality view among NYC skiers. She thinks Plattekill is better than Windham.
 
The deals are decent sized, but the Denver Post seems to be spending more resources digging into these deals than I would normally expect. The latest article provides some rather good stuff contained in the detailed SEC filings though.

Inside look at the $1.7 billion deal that weds Aspen, Steamboat, Winter Park and Canadian Mountain heliskiing operation
http://www.denverpost.com/2017/05/09/aspen-steamboat-ski-area-merger/
 
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