Mammoth Mountain 2013-14 Winter Outlook

[mammothsnowman]

Here is Weather Guys Mammoth Forecast for the Winter Season.
http://mammothsnowman.com/mammoth-mount ... alifornia/

out....

[Tony Crocker]

Monthly Forecast Totals:
November = 70” December = 60” January = 45” February = 25” March = 115” April = 40” November – April = 375”

The specificity of this kind of forecast is really sticking one's neck out, especially for a region with volatility as high as the Sierra. Even though only February and March are predicted to deviate from average significantly, my bet is that at least 4 of those monthly predictions will be off by a lot. I don't suppose we have this guy's forecasts for the past 3 seasons????? That's why I'm copying this one. I'd be mildly surprised if the link above is still around next April/May.

Mammoth 45 year averages:
Nov 42
Dec 68
Jan 72
Feb 72
Mar 61
Apr 34
May 11
Total 360 inches
Standard deviations by month are about 2/3 of the averages.
Season standard deviation is 132 inches

[gpaulski]

This guy is Mr. Crock!!!

[Tony Crocker]

Monthly Forecast Totals:
November = 70” December = 60” January = 45” February = 25” March = 115” April = 40” November – April = 375”

Not sure how I stumbled on this so much later, but here are the actuals for that very bad season:
November = 12.5” December = 18” January = 13.5” February = 50.5” March = 45” April = 43” November – April = 182.5”

Hopefully a lesson was learned about making such specific weather predictions far in advance or placing any credibility whatsoever in them. Something to keep in mind as we soon get into the silly season of winter weather forecasts.

[EMSC]

But he pretty much nailed the April snowfall forecast!

(LOL)

There have already been 'prognostications' in the Denver paper about how in a neutral year (non-Nino or Nina) Colorado should expect slightly below average snowfall... And that from supposed actual meteorology types, not even the Farmer's almanac level of guessing.

In reality I do believe there is the least correlation of snowfall to 'neutral' years in Colo so we should expect to have no idea how it will shape up until we are well into the winter. For the next week or two, temps above average is all that seems reasonable to predict...

[Tony Crocker]

I haven't posted this in awhile:

El Nino/La Nina is a non factor for the two regions covering Colorado areas. Even at the individual area level only Steamboat (favored by La Nina) and Taos (favored by El Nino) show any meaningful impact.

For I-70 Colorado, neutral years included two of the best (1983-84 and 1995-96) and two of the worst (1976-77 and 1980-81).