NZ and Oz - 2020.

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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby Sbooker » Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:38 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:So why wasn't NZ a safer bet than Thredbo this season?

The Democrats wanted to avoid nominating someone many people actively dislike, which was a big part of the problem last time. The strategy seems to be get out of the way and let Trump self destruct. So far it's working quite well.


NZ is not an option yet Tony and it doesn't look likely anytime soon unfortunately. There is some talk of November but the way we're reacting to relatively minor outbreaks in Melbourne it doesn't look good for international travel.

I get the Democrat thing now I guess. But surely there is still some Kennedys left that would have put their hand up? :-D
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby Tony Crocker » Tue Jul 14, 2020 10:24 am

I thought there was talk of allowing travel between NZ and "clean" states of Australia, which should mean everywhere other than Victoria and New South Wales.
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby Sbooker » Tue Jul 14, 2020 6:33 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:I thought there was talk of allowing travel between NZ and "clean" states of Australia, which should mean everywhere other than Victoria and New South Wales.


There was but Queensland opened the border to NSW (which had theirs open to Victoria for a couple of weeks when community transmission infection numbers were rising). NZ not so keen now apparently.
So frustrating in many ways.
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby Sbooker » Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:01 am

It’s official. Covid is certifiably atrocious.
Had to cancel our planned few days on the snow in August today. Our state government declared we would have to do 14 days paid quarantine on return to Queensland if we even drove through a declared ‘hot spot’ in New South Wales.
Props to Thredbo resort though. They offered a full refund of our eye wateringly expensive lift tickets as long as we produced proof that we were flying into NSW.

I’m concerned my kids are going to forget how to ski. Myself and my wife had 11 wonderful days on skis in Feb/March in the US Rockies but the kids haven’t been on skis since December when we had 5 days on various hills in Hokkaido. When are we going to ski again?
I’m hoping it comes back to us all quickly.
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby Tony Crocker » Fri Jul 24, 2020 6:35 pm

Most skiers go 8-9 months between seasons. Only us nutcases cut that down to 6 months or fewer. I would not be concerned about your kids at all. Being in not great physical condition is the primary reason for an extended warmup period in the new season, rarely an issue with active kids.

I'd still hold out hope for a COVID-free Queensland in late September, allowing you to go for North Island NZ during your spring school holiday. Queensland's draconian policy about quarantine from NSW may be reassuring from the NZ government point of view.
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby Sbooker » Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:59 am

Tony Crocker wrote:Most skiers go 8-9 months between seasons. Only us nutcases cut that down to 6 months or fewer. I would not be concerned about your kids at all. Being in not great physical condition is the primary reason for an extended warmup period in the new season, rarely an issue with active kids.

I'd still hold out hope for a COVID-free Queensland in late September, allowing you to go for North Island NZ during your spring school holiday. Queensland's draconian policy about quarantine from NSW may be reassuring from the NZ government point of view.


Thanks Tony. Hopefully you’re right about the kids.
And being able to go to Ruapehu in September would be tops.
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby Sbooker » Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:53 pm

Great news from here in Australia.
Our state government has flagged that it will likely open the borders to our southern neighbouring state of New South Wales by Christmas. Our state Premier has the border locked down due to rampant Covid in NSW. The daily community transmission numbers spiked to 14 cases a month ago but has since fallen to (obviously still a worrying figure) of 2 to 3 cases per day.
There is almost no chance we will be allowed to travel to Victoria who yesterday had a huge number of new cases - 38.
Some cynics have suggested the hard line on borders have little to do with public health outcomes and more to do with the state government election in early November however I'm uncertain why people think these actions are going to have our Labor government re-elected.

Now to be a little more serious. These politicians are so drunk on power that they have refused people entry into the state to visit dying relatives. In fact a media worthy case a week or so ago told of two young girls who were denied entry to see there father before he died even though they lived in Canberra who hasn't had a covid case in over 2 months.
It is certain we don't live in the land of the free and home of the brave.
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby Tony Crocker » Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:37 pm

sbooker wrote:The daily community transmission numbers spiked to 14 cases a month ago but has since fallen to (obviously still a worrying figure) of 2 to 3 cases per day.

Florida and California cases are down some from mid-summer: both states now in the area of 3,000 new cases per day! L.A. County restaurants are outside dining only.

Liz and I left Florida Aug. 28 and drove through 12 states on our way home, arriving Sep. 14.
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby Sbooker » Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:10 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:
sbooker wrote:The daily community transmission numbers spiked to 14 cases a month ago but has since fallen to (obviously still a worrying figure) of 2 to 3 cases per day.

Florida and California cases are down some from mid-summer: both states now in the area of 3,000 new cases per day! L.A. County restaurants are outside dining only.

Liz and I left Florida Aug. 28 and drove through 12 states on our way home, arriving Sep. 14.


Rub it in.
I can only hope that the announcement and not complete roll out of a working safe vaccine will signal a quick widespread lifting of restrictions.
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby EMSC » Mon Sep 21, 2020 8:48 am

Sbooker wrote:Rub it in.


I find it truly shocking the manner in which Oz and Kiwi lands have handled the virus. They've taken the concepts of one of the worst dictatorships in history (Communist China) and decided that that was the gold standard in how to treat people in the face of a moderate virus threat. SO many more paths are and were possible (eg South Korea or Sweden as very different examples - yet neither has locked down citizens).

While the quote was intended a bit differently at the time it was said: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety" is something that comes to mind, but then I do have a strong Americanized view of how those two topics interact with each other.

I've been in-state/in-county only ~9 of the last 20 something weekends since this started, have flown cross country, and etc... Again seems shocking what I see in Oz and Kiwi lands. Very surprised I have not read about big backlash there given that even Europe has seen significant pushback to non-nuanced and over-broad lock-down style government concepts.

going back in the time-machine of this thread:
jamesdeluxe wrote:Are all my fellow Americans enjoying our status as the laughing stock of the world?

Does this mean that James thinks that France, UK, Spain, India and Brazil and others are now the laughing stock of the world? The only comparison that can be made of how any country actually did will be about 2-3 years from now.
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby Tony Crocker » Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:01 pm

EMSC wrote:Very surprised I have not read about big backlash there given that even Europe has seen significant pushback to non-nuanced and over-broad lock-down style government concepts.

I'm surprised too. When you visit these Oz and NZ, there's an impression the locals tend to be "rugged individualists" like the American ideal. But no question their citizens are much more compliant to government orders/regulations than Americans. Two points here though:
1) The performance of the US government in the 21st century has given its citizens more reason to distrust government than the prior decades. When vaccines finally arrive, there will be a lot of conspiracy theorists on both left and right in the US who will refuse to take it.
2) A pandemic is the type of crisis where the autocratic approach can be more effective in both limiting its spread and requiring vaccination when that time comes.

What I would like to know about Oz and NZ is how damaging to the economy have the restrictions been? How high is unemployment? Are restaurants and hotels going out of business en masse? How many industries are being bailed out by the government and/or the central banks?

EMSC wrote:The only comparison that can be made of how any country actually did will be about 2-3 years from now.

Very true, and that applies to the economic as well as the health outcomes.

EMSC wrote:Does this mean that James thinks that France, UK, Spain, India and Brazil and others are now the laughing stock of the world?

A couple of key cumulative stats as of 9/17:
Country, Deaths/1M pop, Cases/Tests (Positivity Rate)


Peru 939 20.7%
Belgium 856 3.5%
Andorra 686 1.1%
Spain 650 5.8%
Bolivia 639 45.9%
Brazil 634 30.5%
Chile 634 15.0%
Ecuador 623 33.0%
UK 614 1.9%
USA 610 7.2%
Italy 590 2.9%
Sweden 580 6.3%
Mexico 557 44.1%
Panama 511 24.9%
France 476 4.2%
Colombia 464 22.6%
Netherlands 366 4.3%

Selected other countries:
Argentina 275 36.4%
South Africa 265 16.5%
Canada 243 2.2%
Switzerland 236 3.9%
Germany 113 1.8%
Denmark 110 0.7%
Austria 84 2.6%
India 61 8.6%
Norway 49 1.4%
Australia 33 0.4%
S. Korea 7 1.0%
Singapore 5 2.3%
New Zealand 5 0.2%
Taiwan 0.3 0.6%

The high positivity rates imply than several Latin American countries are likely understated.

The recent case surges in France and Spain are as high as last spring.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/spain/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/

The cumulative death rate in the US is similar to many European countries, but should it be? The US overall has much lower population density. Where the US has high population density, the results are worse than Europe.

New Jersey 1,822 6.2%
New York 1,705 5.0%
Massachusetts 1,343 5.6%
Connecticut 1,259 3.9%
Louisiana 1,142 7.5%
Rhode Island 1,024 3.5%
Mississippi 934 13.2%
District Of Columbia 877 4.3%
Arizona 743 13.0%
Michigan 696 3.6%
Illinois 681 5.5%
Maryland 639 5.2%
Delaware 636 7.2%
Pennsylvania 624 8.2%
South Carolina 613 11.5%
Georgia 610 10.1%
Florida 609 13.4%
Indiana 517 6.1%
Texas 516 12.3%
Alabama 490 13.0%
Nevada 489 7.8%
New Mexico 399 3.2%
Iowa 397 10.7%
Ohio 392 5.2%
Arkansas 386 8.5%
California 375 5.9%
Minnesota 354 4.9%
Colorado 348 7.8%
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby EMSC » Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:03 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:and requiring vaccination when that time comes.


Thus far I've seen much magical thinking on a vaccine. I sure wouldn't spend my days thinking the magic bullet is about to come, at least I don't personally. Some simple facts include: 1) there has never been a vaccine created for any human corona virus strain - ever, 2) the shortest time frame in the history of vaccines is 4 years to achieve a both effective and safe vaccine. That said, if one does come along soon that will be awesome, but highly unprecedented and very iffy as to repeatability for each new virus instance over time.

Thus I'm sure not going to hold my breath on that. The rules and behaviors need to be designed to be able to last for a long period of time without destroying such things as: the rest of the health care system, the entire economy, the fun and social aspects of WHY we all like to be alive as humans in the first place. So called lockdowns do the exact opposite of what they should form an overall/big picture perspective and only prolong the overall pain of their citizens.
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby Sbooker » Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:42 pm

EMSC wrote:
Sbooker wrote:Rub it in.


I find it truly shocking the manner in which Oz and Kiwi lands have handled the virus. They've taken the concepts of one of the worst dictatorships in history (Communist China) and decided that that was the gold standard in how to treat people in the face of a moderate virus threat. SO many more paths are and were possible (eg South Korea or Sweden as very different examples - yet neither has locked down citizens).

While the quote was intended a bit differently at the time it was said: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety" is something that comes to mind, but then I do have a strong Americanized view of how those two topics interact with each other.

I've been in-state/in-county only ~9 of the last 20 something weekends since this started, have flown cross country, and etc... Again seems shocking what I see in Oz and Kiwi lands. Very surprised I have not read about big backlash there given that even Europe has seen significant pushback to non-nuanced and over-broad lock-down style government concepts.

going back in the time-machine of this thread:
jamesdeluxe wrote:Are all my fellow Americans enjoying our status as the laughing stock of the world?

Does this mean that James thinks that France, UK, Spain, India and Brazil and others are now the laughing stock of the world? The only comparison that can be made of how any country actually did will be about 2-3 years from now.


It's easy for me to say because my beliefs will never be put into action but I think Australia could have handled the situation a lot better just like the USA could have.
We are very similar to the US but there are vast differences when it comes to attitudes toward freedom and rights. Here in Oz they took away our guns after the 1996 massacre in Port Arthur. In the main we said - "oh ok then". Somehow I don't think that would go down the same way in the US. :lol:
It must be said that our federal government at no point have condoned any 'lock downs' aside from the shutting of our international borders. The harsh restrictions have been put in place by state governments - in most cases those from the left side of the fence. Make of that what you will.
I totally agree that we won't know the success of the different measures put in place by the various governments from around the world for a few years yet.
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby Sbooker » Mon Sep 21, 2020 6:20 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:
EMSC wrote:
What I would like to know about Oz and NZ is how damaging to the economy have the restrictions been? How high is unemployment? Are restaurants and hotels going out of business en masse? How many industries are being bailed out by the government and/or the central banks?



We don't know how the economy is really faring yet. For a couple of reasons.
Firstly the government has gone on a massive spendathon with their Jobkeeper programme. Essentially employers have been subsidized their employees wages for 6 months so that the businesses can 'hibernate' over Covid. There are some conditions for businesses to qualify but they are not overly onerous.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-21/ ... s/12477186" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
There are over 2 million people on Jobkeeper and that is due to be phased out starting now. Things will get real very quickly I think.
Our headline unemployment figure of 7.5% does not include those on Jobkeeper.
The other controversial programme is 'Jobseeker' - unemployment benefits. The fortnightly benefit was doubled when Covid came along in March. That's correct - doubled to $550 per week. Many many businesses can't get staff to do unskilled work because the difference between the Jobkeeper rate and minimum wage is so small.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal ... 55knb.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Anecdotally hospitality is coping well enough in the states where restaurants etc have re-opened. In Victoria where the whole economy has been shut down for months (there is even a 9pm curfew!) is a different story. Many 3rd and 4th generation restaurants will never open their doors again apparently.
Other industries in all state aside from Victoria booming on the back of government stimulus. Car sales, homewares, home improvement have been going gang busters. Real Estate (cough cough) has been unexpectedly busy with buyer numbers far outweighing supply in most markets aside from the prestige market and some selective areas (like Victoria where the real estate market is shut).

What is strange about the measures put in place is that our federal government is a conservative one. They have been extremely vocal in the past about the importance of fiscal responsibility and the need to run budget surpluses. Obviously the stimulus programmes put in place are going to create record budget deficits. Obviously they have - perhaps behind closed doors - now adopted Modern Monetary Theory despite almost ridiculing other nations that have turned on the printing presses in recent years.

I'm lost and have no idea of what the future holds for us. I can't imagine there won't be a period of social and economic pain due to the decisions of our elected leaders. That said we're lucky to live in a truly fortunate country where tough times for us would be a dream like existence for most of the planet.
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Re: NZ and Oz - 2020.

Postby Tony Crocker » Sat Oct 03, 2020 1:55 pm

Here's one sbooker will appreciate:
Trump Family Records More Cases Of Community Transmission Than Entire State Of Queensland
courtesy of Betoota Advocate, a satirical Australian news site.
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Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
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