powderfreak
New member
Its been a long summer and now the seasons are changing. I'm real busy with work through Tuesday 
so will try and update when I can. I wrote this up yesterday and like my thoughts. Temps will not be as cold as originally thought and the set-up is certainly not perfect...though I do believe a 4-8" snowfall will occur from MRG to Jay, at Cannon and Bretton Woods in NH, and Whiteface in NY. Also, the Canadian resorts N-NE of Jay Peak will pick this up and possibly a little more.
New developments also are another winter-like storm next weekend in the northeast and I like some looks of that. More on that one after Tuesday and I'll update again tomorrow. Bottom line, moderate orographic snowfall from Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday evening should produce 4-8" in the usual spots.
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Yesterday afternoon's GFS model extraction continues to show signs of an upslope snowfall in the northern Green Mtns, Adirondacks, and far NW NH. This is data for BTV and after studying these events at great depths, I always look for a few hundredths in every interval across valley locations like BTV with slightly higher (but still hundredths) amounts at places like SLK and MVL.
H85 temps are cold enough to support snow above 1,000ft during the day and valley floors at night...wind flow out of the NNW to NW will hit the northern Adirondacks decently but pummel the northern Greens and NW NH. From former research, these events do not produce significant snowfall in valley locations, snowfall is localized to ski resorts in VT, and it does not reach further SE than Franconia Notch to Pinkham Notch line. NY, NH and ME's topography does not seem to allow for as significant amounts of snowfall as VT's.
Wind speed at 850mb is greater than 25kts for a duration of longer than 12hrs and direction does not shift all that much throughout. GFS looks onboard and Canadian Global is also onboard with best time frame being Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening....not having access to Canadian model extraction data, its hard to tell when the winds shift from Wly to NWly but appears to be similar to GFS at around 12z Tuesday.
I'm not overly impressed with the NAM's location of the low pressure center(s) which are further E than GFS/Canadian...it has a broader area of low pressure further east as well as a more pronounced inverted trough type set-up extending westward through southern Canada. I'd rather see a better wrapped area of low pressure and associated tighter pressure gradient.
Regardless, the usual upslope areas are going to see some snowfall. I wish we had some stronger low level CAA but lapse rates during the day should be higher than in a normal winter-time upslope event. Bottom line is as long as enough moisture is advected back into the region on a 12hr+ NW or NNW low level flow of 25kts+, precipitation will fall across the Green Mountain spine, north slopes of the Adirondacks, and NW NH. My initial thoughts is accums are moderate (4-8") in favored areas of NY, NH, and ME with 6-12" along the spine in VT from Sugarbush/MRG ski areas northward. If all comes together, 8-16" would be possible in Jay Peak-Mansfield corridor.
More in the coming days.
so will try and update when I can. I wrote this up yesterday and like my thoughts. Temps will not be as cold as originally thought and the set-up is certainly not perfect...though I do believe a 4-8" snowfall will occur from MRG to Jay, at Cannon and Bretton Woods in NH, and Whiteface in NY. Also, the Canadian resorts N-NE of Jay Peak will pick this up and possibly a little more.New developments also are another winter-like storm next weekend in the northeast and I like some looks of that. More on that one after Tuesday and I'll update again tomorrow. Bottom line, moderate orographic snowfall from Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday evening should produce 4-8" in the usual spots.
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Yesterday afternoon's GFS model extraction continues to show signs of an upslope snowfall in the northern Green Mtns, Adirondacks, and far NW NH. This is data for BTV and after studying these events at great depths, I always look for a few hundredths in every interval across valley locations like BTV with slightly higher (but still hundredths) amounts at places like SLK and MVL.
H85 temps are cold enough to support snow above 1,000ft during the day and valley floors at night...wind flow out of the NNW to NW will hit the northern Adirondacks decently but pummel the northern Greens and NW NH. From former research, these events do not produce significant snowfall in valley locations, snowfall is localized to ski resorts in VT, and it does not reach further SE than Franconia Notch to Pinkham Notch line. NY, NH and ME's topography does not seem to allow for as significant amounts of snowfall as VT's.
Wind speed at 850mb is greater than 25kts for a duration of longer than 12hrs and direction does not shift all that much throughout. GFS looks onboard and Canadian Global is also onboard with best time frame being Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening....not having access to Canadian model extraction data, its hard to tell when the winds shift from Wly to NWly but appears to be similar to GFS at around 12z Tuesday.
I'm not overly impressed with the NAM's location of the low pressure center(s) which are further E than GFS/Canadian...it has a broader area of low pressure further east as well as a more pronounced inverted trough type set-up extending westward through southern Canada. I'd rather see a better wrapped area of low pressure and associated tighter pressure gradient.
Regardless, the usual upslope areas are going to see some snowfall. I wish we had some stronger low level CAA but lapse rates during the day should be higher than in a normal winter-time upslope event. Bottom line is as long as enough moisture is advected back into the region on a 12hr+ NW or NNW low level flow of 25kts+, precipitation will fall across the Green Mountain spine, north slopes of the Adirondacks, and NW NH. My initial thoughts is accums are moderate (4-8") in favored areas of NY, NH, and ME with 6-12" along the spine in VT from Sugarbush/MRG ski areas northward. If all comes together, 8-16" would be possible in Jay Peak-Mansfield corridor.
More in the coming days.