East on track for an average or better season

Tony Crocker

Administrator
Staff member
Geoff":1ujexwek said:
Is there a way to see annual snowfall data at the Mount Mansfield snow stake or elsewhere on the spine of the Greens not collected by a ski resort?
Yes, but as exhaustively analyzed by JSpin and powderfreak a few years ago, the Mansfield Stake underestimates snowfall by a significant margin. The in-season reporting is even less reliable, as it's running 65% of average through mid-February while Jay, Stowe and Sugarbush are all at 103%. Killington is at 101%. I'm sure Geoff would agree that the 101-103% numbers are reasonable.
 

Geoff

New member
Tony Crocker":rwrra22x said:
Geoff":rwrra22x said:
Is there a way to see annual snowfall data at the Mount Mansfield snow stake or elsewhere on the spine of the Greens not collected by a ski resort?
Yes, but as exhaustively analyzed by JSpin and powderfreak a few years ago, the Mansfield Stake underestimates snowfall by a significant margin. The in-season reporting is even less reliable, as it's running 65% of average through mid-February while Jay, Stowe and Sugarbush are all at 103%. Killington is at 101%. I'm sure Geoff would agree that the 101-103% numbers are reasonable.

The reason I'm asking is because somebody elsewhere is trying to claim that ski resort snowfall reporting is a total lie because it's 2x or 3x what the NWS reports down in the flats at some airport. I know from decades of experience that a resort that misreported snowfall would be slammed by the thousands of people who are there tracking it out.
 

Tony Crocker

Administrator
Staff member
Geoff":212hxis7 said:
I know from decades of experience that a resort that misreported snowfall would be slammed by the thousands of people who are there tracking it out.
There would also need to be a conspiracy to overstate among numerous areas, because if one area is at 125% and everyone else around them is at 100%, it's easy to call out the outlier.
 
Tony Crocker":2wkauul1 said:
Geoff":2wkauul1 said:
I know from decades of experience that a resort that misreported snowfall would be slammed by the thousands of people who are there tracking it out.
There would also need to be a conspiracy to overstate among numerous areas, because if one area is at 125% and everyone else around them is at 100%, it's easy to call out the outlier.

I usually assume some relatively small "fudge factor" when ski areas report snowfall. As we all know, how much snowfall they report can depend on where and how they measure snow on the mountain. There are always ways to "enhance" the amount of snow that they claim has fallen on the mountain.

On a somewhat related topic, ski conditions have been superb (by Eastern standards) the last four or five weeks in most of New England and the Northeast. Several substantial snowstorms with no thaws or rain or other weather factors to destroy the conditions. BUT, it has been brutally cold for much of this time period, so somewhat hard to enjoy the skiing. I skied yesterday morning for a few hours. About an inch of new snow on top of groomed, real powder snow. Great ski conditions. But it turned very cold and windy as a new cold front passed through in the middle of the morning. About 12 degrees with 20 to 30 MPH winds blowing straight up the trails as you skied down (with the new snow blowing in your face - UGH). Maybe some more snow this weekend too and more continued cold weather into March predicted.
 

Harvey

Administrator
Staff member
Geoff":iunxmxlh said:
Is there a way to see annual snowfall data at the Mount Mansfield snow stake or elsewhere on the spine of the Greens not collected by a ski resort?

LOL sounds like Geoff is talking about our troll Powder Assassin. Or maybe one of his personnas on another forum where he hasn't been banned.

Would love to see a nice methodical TC smackdown...
 

Marc_C

Active member
Harvey44":l3v5q9iv said:
LOL sounds like Geoff is talking about our troll Powder Assassin. Or maybe one of his personnas on another forum where he hasn't been banned.

Would love to see a nice methodical TC smackdown...
I didn't know about Powder Assassin and I generally don't read eastcoast-centric blogs or forums, so I did a quick search. Holy crap Batman!!!
I think a flame war between him, Otis De La Rosa, and gpaul could be a milestone event in internet history!
 

Harvey

Administrator
Staff member
Pow's theory is that if you say something a million times it must be true.

He definitely believes in the organized conspiracy along the Green Mountain spine where each mountain up the line progressively exaggerates snow totals with Mt Snow adding 5% all the way up to Stowe/Jay basically doubling their totals.

Personally I've stopped picking on him (much) because I think he may be mentally unstable.
 

Tony Crocker

Administrator
Staff member
Harvey44":3k169nsb said:
Would love to see a nice methodical TC smackdown...
I've had this discussion occasionally by e-mail. Nonetheless JSpin and powderfreak live in the area, measure snow themselves and are far more qualified than I for this particular job.
 

Tony Crocker

Administrator
Staff member
I just got the Mansfield Stake daily logs.

The stretch with no rain was from January 5 - April 9. The average temperatures for February were high 7F, low -9F. Both of these might be records.

The disparity in snowfall between the Mansfield Stake and the Stowe ski area (measured by powderfreak) is huge this year: 183.9 inches vs. 290 inches.
 

jamesdeluxe

Administrator
Tony Crocker":2f6dppy2 said:
The stretch with no rain was from January 5 - April 9. The average temperatures for February were high 7F, low -9F. Both of these might be records.
Three months without rain, wow.
 

Harvey

Administrator
Staff member
Tony Crocker":2nmku5bh said:
I just got the Mansfield Stake daily logs.

The stretch with no rain was from January 5 - April 9. The average temperatures for February were high 7F, low -9F. Both of these might be records.

The disparity in snowfall between the Mansfield Stake and the Stowe ski area (measured by powderfreak) is huge this year: 183.9 inches vs. 290 inches.

So what is the truth about Stowe? Is the NoVT conspiracy theory actually legit?

:lol:
 
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