One article that was semi-useless was last year's Alps prediction for Winter 2025-26:
Planning a trip to the Alps? Here's when (and where) forecasters expect snow.
www.skimag.com
- When: Early winter could be warmer and drier; later winter could become colder and wetter as Atlantic blocking weakens. February–March is a reasonable interpretation, though the author never explicitly recommends those months.
- Where: Austria and the Eastern Alps could fare better if blocking diverts storms south from the north. That’s conditional, not a firm prediction that Austria will beat France or Switzerland.
- Confidence: Low. The main seasonal model shows no clear overall precipitation signal for the Alps, and the article says La Niña offers little useful guidance there.
Forecasts Say This Is When Skiers Should Visit the Alps for the Best Snow This Winter
Planning a trip to the Alps? Here's when (and where) forecasters expect snow.
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(Photo: Christoph Wagner / Getty)
Sergei PoljakFollow
Updated September 29, 2025 12:41PM
This year, there are more reasons than ever to travel to the European Alps for a ski trip, with big savings on food, lodging, and more European resorts joining the
Ikon and
Epic Passes. There’s a lot about skiing in the Alps that can be expected, but as of recent years, the biggest factor, snow, has been a little hit or miss.
While we can expect delicious food and plenty of Aperol Spritzes on the slopes, can we also expect quality snow? We looked at several forecasting measures to try to figure out when and where the snow is going to fall this year.
The ECMWF—the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts—is the primary forecasting body in Europe, comparable to NOAA in the U.S. The latest September ECMWF seasonal ensemble, known as SEAS5, indicates no overall signal for winter precipitation in the Alps. More specifically, the model suggests that early winter could be warmer and drier, while mid-to-late winter could be colder and wetter.
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The best way to interpret this data is not to expect an average winter, but to expect a clean roll of the dice; there’s a 20 percent chance of getting either much more or much less precipitation than usual. These numbers should match the highest or lowest levels seen historically.
The current model guidance indicates no precipitation signal in the Alps. (Photo: Photo courtesy of ECMWF)
Azores High
Snowstorms in the Alps are categorized as large low-pressure systems that slide in from the Atlantic Ocean. A ridge of high pressure often sits to the west of continental Europe, known as the “Azores High”. This blocking high can route storms north, sometimes leaving the Alps dry, though it’s more likely to affect Portugal and Spain.
Model guidance currently suggests a stronger Azores High this winter, and the SEA5 does suggest this blocking high could diminish as winter progresses, hopefully opening up the storm door more.
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There are other ways in which storms can impact the Alps. For example, when the Azores High blocks storms from the west, the
Eastern Alps can often fare better, as storms slide down from the north on the edge of the high pressure, missing the French, Swiss, and Italian Alps but brushing Austria. You can also get cut-off lows, Genoa lows, and convective snow showers, to name just a few.
All of these factors make long-term weather forecasting difficult in the Alps.
In this chart depicting mean pressure, you can clearly see the blocking high pressure sitting on the Atlantic west of France and Spain. (Photo: Photo courtesy of ECMWF)
La Niña
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific, is one of the most significant single predictors of global climate. This winter is forecast to reach
weak La Niña status.
However, ENSO’s effects become much less pronounced as you move away from the Pacific, and Europe is on the opposite side of the world. That’s why the forecast signal is far weaker here than in North America. Looking back at past seasons, weak La Niña years have produced both good and bad snow years in the Alps. Simply put, ENSO is not a particularly reliable indicator in the Alps.
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Unfortunately, climate change has drastically increased the likelihood of above-average winter temperatures. Interestingly, the SEAS5 shows near-normal temperatures around the Alps, which would be cold compared to recent years, a positive sign for snow sticking around longer after big storms.
Polar Vortex
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is the area of atmospheric pressure containing the infamous Polar Vortex. Models may be picking up on a trend toward a negative AO, which would increase the probability of Arctic cold spilling south into the Alps this winter.
We often hear the term “Polar Vortex” during cold spells. It doesn’t just sound ominous, skiing, or simply existing, in North America can be brutal during these polar outbreaks. However, the Alps have a greater maritime influence from the Atlantic and Mediterranean, so we can use all the cold air we can get.
Temperatures in the Alps are likely to be near-normal, which is as much as we can ask for these days. (Photo: Photo courtesy of ECMWF)
As always, I’m optimistic. Even “average” winters in the Alps feature plenty of memorable days. Personally, I’ll happily trade consistency over abundance when it comes to snow. Keep your fingers crossed, and we’ll keep you updated with the latest.
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at us. Monkeys throwing darts could do just as well most of the time.