Final Forecast A Few Posts Down in This Thread

powderfreak

New member
Alright folks, trying to put together the pieces to get a column together
and while I want to wait till Saturday for a final forecast (48hrs lead time
is what I like for a final product), I'm trying to get something together
for a post tomorrow for those coming up over the holiday weekend. Still
several details to work out, track and strength of the arctic air the main
problems at this juncture. Thus, precip type is what I'm trying to sort
out. I feel the total liquid precip for each area will be the easy part but
where it snows, sleets, ices, or rains is a tough call. Here's my prelim
thinking and we are talking mostly a Monday event and possibly stretching
into Monday night. Full effects will likely not be felt till Tuesday
morning at the mountains so if you're looking for powder, have MLK day off,
maybe watch this thing and make back up plans to call in sick on Tuesday if
it snows a foot:

My gut is telling me the 6" southern boundary runs from Gore Mountain to
Killington to Sunday River with sleet mixed in. Best shot at a 10-12"
snowfall would include Whiteface, SB, MRG, Bolton, Stowe, Smuggs, Jay,
Cannon, and Sugarloaf. Those should mix with sleet for a time with the
exception of Whiteface, Jay, and Sugarloaf which might be far enough north
to avoid the warm nose aloft when the low approaches. Personal experience
would lead me to believe the Green Mountain spine resorts see highest
snowfall especially if the low deepens as it passes. Model QPF might be low
but NNW flow behind the low can keep mod snow going for several hours along
the spine after deeper moisture has left the region. Another thing is some
of the GFS panels have been showing ripe conditions for some Champlain
Valley convergence behind the system...but haven't checked any lake
parameters for enhancement into northern Addison County. Either way, I think
the northern spine picks up a couple more inches than modeled QPF would make
one believe.

Possibly significant icing occurs in the Saratoga/Lake George region of NY,
Mohawk Valley, northern Capital District, southern VT, northern Berkshires
west through the northern MA border and into southern NH. Someone's going
to see marginally damaging ice out of this.

-Scott
 

powderfreak

New member
If we were to verify with the GFS, the significant snowfall would be pushed 50 miles south of where I have outlined above. In other words, it would look like this map, which is the GFS's version of snowfall accumulation's for Monday's storm. You see most of VT and NH are covered in 8" or greater snowfall. The Green Mountain spine is easily seen with the 10" gradient stretching from Jay Peak to Mount Snow.

WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif


Now, I don't think this is correct but I'm sure many would love to check out this site:
http://www.wxcaster.com//regional_snowfall.htm
Its easily to understand if you take a few minutes and scroll through it. There are multiple models (NAM, WRF, and GFS) and they are all run on different grid sizes, with the GFS being the largest. The local WRF and NAM have smaller grid sizes and therefore can pick out differences in the topography better. The NAM has the main snow belt staying at Killington northward while the GFS would crush southern VT. Here's the NAM run this morning:

CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif


Now, this is only through 12z/7amEST on Monday with snowfall continuing through the day on Monday. Looking back towards the Chicago area, you can see a larger are of 8-14" of snow and that's likely what the max zone will see (no changes to my forecast, 6-12" with the chance of slightly higher in the maximum snowfall region). But you can easily pick out how this model has the fire-hose of snow a few counties northward of the GFS.

The battle zone is going to be in that latitudinal area with a sharp cut-off as you head south. With one American model showing 0" of snow for a place like Mount Snow and another American model showing 10", that's a tough forecast. What happens in the Plains over the next day will be vital to seeing if areas further south, even into Albany's Capital District and the RT2 corridor in MA, can get appreciable snow. But remember, what you're not seeing on those charts is ice. That sharp snowfall gradient would include a mix with ice for those who see less than 6" on the southern end, and significant icing near where the 1" or less snowfall area is and up to 50 miles south of that. Makes sense right?

So I have a pretty decent idea on my overall forecast, and it remains unchanged from my first post. Band of 6-12" is going to stretch from west to east across the northeast at some latitude. Just south of there, a sharp gradient will exist with snow/sleet mix, then south of that sleet/freezing rain, then further south significant (possibly damaging) freezing rain. Personally, a few inches of sleet isn't that bad as it provides a really dense base but can make roads extremely dangerous (more so than freezing rain, contrary to popular belief). With today's salting, they can raise the road temp enough so rain doesn't freezing on pavement, at least in areas that see regular traffic while 1-2" of sleet is like driving on ice marbles. Freezing rain has the highest impact on bringing down branches and causing scattered power outages as trees get weighed down (especially the evergreens).

Since Stowe is my home mountain, that's where I'll be heading, but I'm getting this feeling that this is going to be either a Killington special or a Sugarbush/MRG special. Personally, I'd head to the Mad River Valley to be sure, but Gore Mountain in the Adirondacks would also be advisable. The reason I'm also saying the more western mountains might get better snow is that in my experience, while the White Mountain resorts in NH and also Sunday River/Sugarloaf in Maine will see 6"+, this is not a coastal storm, the best moisture is going to have to move across the Adirondacks, then Greens, before it gets to NH and ME. Some Atlantic moisture could work its way into the storm as it nears the Gulf of Maine after tracking through southern/central New England, so it could all even out. With nor'easters I usually keep the heaviest snowfall from the Green Mountain spine eastward and favor Cannon, Wildcat, and Sugarloaf...but with this sort of situation I'd favor the Green Mountain spine westward.

Remember, this is mostly a Monday storm and the best skiing will likely be on Tuesday after it can get groomed out (if that's your thing) or on Tuesday morning when Patrols can check out the new snow and drop ropes. Nothing wrong with storm skiing on Monday (heck, I'll be out there), but I'm also planning on skiing on Tuesday as that's when you might see trail numbers increase.

Wind does not look to be a large factor with this storm so I see no impact to lift operations (ie. wind holds so your left with a day of skiing the beginner double like we often see at the big resorts during storms).

I'm heading off to take a few runs on Mount Mansfield but will be back with more this evening. Take care!

Also, if you don't have this site bookmarked already, you might want to:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

Its the Hydro Prediction Center's snow/ice probability forecasts and they generally do a good job from what I've seen...though usually conservative as they are mostly forecasting for populated regions like the NWS offices. They dont really consider, nor forecast for, what will happen above 2,000ft as very few people live above that elevation in the northeast.
I use this stuff for more of a tool to forecast as you need to sort of read between the lines with them...use the boundaries as a general idea of where heavy snow will fall.

But I like that their forecast is generally in line with mine as far as the zone for max snowfall. This is also through only 12z or 7am on Monday so they have a low probability of 4" or greater by that time. Since they only forecast 3 days out, by 5pm tonight they'll have the snowfall probabilities out for 7pm on Monday which will give a much better idea as that 12hr period is when the max snow will fall.

Just another illustration of where you might want to put yourself for Monday/Tuesday:
day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
 

Patrick

Active member
powderfreak":3e4cagnc said:
Since Stowe is my home mountain, that's where I'll be heading, but I'm getting this feeling that this is going to be either a Killington special or a Sugarbush/MRG special. Personally, I'd head to the Mad River Valley to be sure, but Gore Mountain in the Adirondacks would also be advisable.
I'd love to be closer to MRG, but that being on a Tuesday would be hard to spin, I'm presume that Whiteface would be as good as Gore? Many opinions or comments. Now if I can only skip work. *cough*
 

riverc0il

New member
obviously, to add insult to injury, the first biggest storm of the calendar winter is going to occur on my second busiest day and week of the year at work. no vacation days for me next work and i get to work on the so called holiday (hey, who even gets MLK day off any more besides federal employees? no big deal, only the most influential african american in our countries history ;) ).
 

awf170

New member
riverc0il":1963yplc said:
obviously, to add insult to injury, the first biggest storm of the calendar winter is going to occur on my second busiest day and week of the year at work. no vacation days for me next work and i get to work on the so called holiday (hey, who even gets MLK day off any more besides federal employees? no big deal, only the most influential african american in our countries history ;) ).

Don't worry I'll take plenty of pictures from Cannon on tuesday.


Oh wait, nevermind that won't help will it? :wink: :lol:
 

powderfreak

New member
Forecast for January 14 through January 16 Northeast Winter Storm

Eastern skiers and riders have waited since October for a decent snowstorm
across ski country in central and northern New England but also accompanying
the snowfall will be a large area of mixed precipitation and potentially
damaging ice for some locations. My forecast and a general forecast map are
included in this post.

I?m going to get right into it and try to make this as brief and to the
point as possible. Winter Storm Watches have been issued across much of
upstate NY and VT for Sunday night through Monday night, and Winter Weather
Advisories are in effect for the southern tier of NY eastward through the
northern Catskills and Albany area. There will be two bouts of
precipitation with this system and the first will arrive late tonight and
during tomorrow, spreading light snow north of a Utica, NY to Rutland, VT
line and south of a Saranac Lake, NY to Berlin, NH line, with a mix of snow,
sleet, and freezing rain to the south of there through the I-90 corridor in
NY, the northern Catskills, and mainly north of RT 2 in MA. South of that,
there will be a zone of mainly freezing rain stretching from the southern
tier of NY to the Litchfield Hills in far NW CT and in a large area of
interior MA north of I-90, south of RT 2, and west of I-495. Precipitation
should generally be light with snow amounts of 1-3? with isolated 4? amounts
in the Killington region. Travel could be hazardous in parts of Albany?s
Capital District, the I-90 corridor between Buffalo and west of I-495 in MA.
Overall, this will not be a high impact event but will set the stage for
what happens late Sunday night into Monday night.

Sunday night, a more developed low pressure system will move towards the
northeast out of the southwest and runs into the cold air stationed over
southern Canada. This has been missing for the entire winter and has
allowed storm after storm to blast up the Saint Lawrence River Valley
leaving the northeast in the warm sector. With a blocking high pressure
system and confluent zone across extreme southern Canada and far northern
New England, the low will track to the NY/PA border and be forced dead east
into the Gulf of Mexico off the mid-New England coast. Thus, the entire
northern tier of the northeast, including many of the northeast?s major ski
areas, will likely see significant snowfall amounts when all is said and
done. Central New England and central New York will be the battle ground
where warm air aloft ahead of the low pressure, will threaten to bring
significant icing. South of there, the system will be mostly rain but there
could be some pockets of freezing rain across elevated regions of northern
CT, the mid-Hudson River Valley, and northern NJ. Total duration of the
event, including the weak first wave tomorrow, will be around 36 hours;
while there will be a break in the precipitation, in many areas it might
seem like its been raining, sleeting, icing, or snowing for a decent period
of time. This long duration will also preclude any sustained periods of
heavy snow in the north but it will add up.

I have included my thoughts on what the general outcome of those 36 hours,
in the northeast, will be in the map below. It is not sophisticated by any
means but it gets the point across; forgive the unreadable city names but
the interstate system can still be made out. Additionally, I will admit I
mostly focused on the core of the northeast so my confidence decreases as
you head out towards western NY and far eastern Maine. Below the map is my
forecast for each area outline.

http://tinyurl.com/yhla5u

A) This will be the northern end of the precipitation shield so I am
forecasting 1-6? in this area. The reason for the large spread in
forecasted snowfall accumulations is that there will be a very sharp cut-off
to the north; no snow will fall north of this region. The first wave will
stay south of this region so precipitation will mostly fall on Monday from
west to east. One exception to the forecast here is that the Eastern
Townships in Canada, adjacent to northern Vermont, could see over 6?.

B) I?m going with 6-12? of snowfall in Zone B and it will include the
highest snowfall totals for this event. Regions adjacent to the I-89
corridor across Vermont and back to the WSW through the central Adirondacks
will likely see the highest snowfall by receiving snow with both waves and
due to topography with the mean flow out of the west. Areas near zone C
will mix with sleet during the storm so although they receive the most
precipitation overall, there snowfall totals will be held down. There is
the potential for some areas to receive 12-14? such as the Green Mountain
spine from Smugglers Notch southward to the Sugarbush/MRG region, as well as
Gore Mountain in the southern Adirondacks. First wave of snow is during the
day on Sunday with up to 3? of accumulation with the main storm during late
Sunday night into early Monday night.

C) Here, I?m expecting anywhere from three to as much as six inches of snow
across the higher elevations on the northern end of this zone. The highest
total frozen/freezing precipitation will fall in this zone though a heavy
mix of sleet, freezing rain, and even plain rain in some southern areas of
the zone, will cut accumulation totals down. For the main event, look for
precipitation to start as snow before mixing with sleet and freezing rain.
A snow and sleet accumulation will occur before some icing but precipitation
will turn back to all snow as the low passes east. Another inch or two is
possible after the mix.

D) Zone D will not see much overall accumulation with up to 1? of sleet and
freezing rain. Sleet will start the main event before a prolonged period of
freezing rain occurs, especially in interior MA back through the Catskills
and some high elevation spots just south of the NY border. Precipitation
will eventually go over to a cold rain for a period before a possible few
flurries of snow to end it.

E) This area of coastline in north of I-90 will likely start as a mix of
snow and sleet but easterly winds off the ocean should warm them up enough
to preclude any real accumulation. Rain is a threat here but wet snow could
bust this forecast across the Maine coastline. The best chance of
accumulating snows here will be after the low when the winds are coming in
from the interior and not the warm Atlantic. Snowfall will range anywhere
from up to 1? down near Boston to up to 6? across the furthest northeast
point of the Maine coastline.

-Scott
 

powderfreak

New member
Forecast for January 14 through January 16 Northeast Winter Storm

Eastern skiers and riders have waited since October for a decent snowstorm
across ski country in central and northern New England but also accompanying
the snowfall will be a large area of mixed precipitation and potentially
damaging ice for some locations. My forecast and a general forecast map are
included in this post.

I?m going to get right into it and try to make this as brief and to the
point as possible. Winter Storm Watches have been issued across much of
upstate NY and VT for Sunday night through Monday night, and Winter Weather
Advisories are in effect for the southern tier of NY eastward through the
northern Catskills and Albany area. There will be two bouts of
precipitation with this system and the first will arrive late tonight and
during tomorrow, spreading light snow north of a Utica, NY to Rutland, VT
line and south of a Saranac Lake, NY to Berlin, NH line, with a mix of snow,
sleet, and freezing rain to the south of there through the I-90 corridor in
NY, the northern Catskills, and mainly north of RT 2 in MA. South of that,
there will be a zone of mainly freezing rain stretching from the southern
tier of NY to the Litchfield Hills in far NW CT and in a large area of
interior MA north of I-90, south of RT 2, and west of I-495. Precipitation
should generally be light with snow amounts of 1-3? with isolated 4? amounts
in the Killington region. Travel could be hazardous in parts of Albany?s
Capital District, the I-90 corridor between Buffalo and west of I-495 in MA.
Overall, this will not be a high impact event but will set the stage for
what happens late Sunday night into Monday night.

Sunday night, a more developed low pressure system will move towards the
northeast out of the southwest and runs into the cold air stationed over
southern Canada. This has been missing for the entire winter and has
allowed storm after storm to blast up the Saint Lawrence River Valley
leaving the northeast in the warm sector. With a blocking high pressure
system and confluent zone across extreme southern Canada and far northern
New England, the low will track to the NY/PA border and be forced dead east
into the Gulf of Mexico off the mid-New England coast. Thus, the entire
northern tier of the northeast, including many of the northeast?s major ski
areas, will likely see significant snowfall amounts when all is said and
done. Central New England and central New York will be the battle ground
where warm air aloft ahead of the low pressure, will threaten to bring
significant icing. South of there, the system will be mostly rain but there
could be some pockets of freezing rain across elevated regions of northern
CT, the mid-Hudson River Valley, and northern NJ. Total duration of the
event, including the weak first wave tomorrow, will be around 36 hours;
while there will be a break in the precipitation, in many areas it might
seem like its been raining, sleeting, icing, or snowing for a decent period
of time. This long duration will also preclude any sustained periods of
heavy snow in the north but it will add up.

I have included my thoughts on what the general outcome of those 36 hours,
in the northeast, will be in the map below. It is not sophisticated by any
means but it gets the point across; forgive the unreadable city names but
the interstate system can still be made out. Additionally, I will admit I
mostly focused on the core of the northeast so my confidence decreases as
you head out towards western NY and far eastern Maine. Below the map is my
forecast for each area outline.

http://tinyurl.com/yhla5u

A) This will be the northern end of the precipitation shield so I am
forecasting 1-6? in this area. The reason for the large spread in
forecasted snowfall accumulations is that there will be a very sharp cut-off
to the north; no snow will fall north of this region. The first wave will
stay south of this region so precipitation will mostly fall on Monday from
west to east. One exception to the forecast here is that the Eastern
Townships in Canada, adjacent to northern Vermont, could see over 6?.

B) I?m going with 6-12? of snowfall in Zone B and it will include the
highest snowfall totals for this event. Regions adjacent to the I-89
corridor across Vermont and back to the WSW through the central Adirondacks
will likely see the highest snowfall by receiving snow with both waves and
due to topography with the mean flow out of the west. Areas near zone C
will mix with sleet during the storm so although they receive the most
precipitation overall, there snowfall totals will be held down. There is
the potential for some areas to receive 12-14? such as the Green Mountain
spine from Smugglers Notch southward to the Sugarbush/MRG region, as well as
Gore Mountain in the southern Adirondacks. First wave of snow is during the
day on Sunday with up to 3? of accumulation with the main storm during late
Sunday night into early Monday night.

C) Here, I?m expecting anywhere from three to as much as six inches of snow
across the higher elevations on the northern end of this zone. The highest
total frozen/freezing precipitation will fall in this zone though a heavy
mix of sleet, freezing rain, and even plain rain in some southern areas of
the zone, will cut accumulation totals down. For the main event, look for
precipitation to start as snow before mixing with sleet and freezing rain.
A snow and sleet accumulation will occur before some icing but precipitation
will turn back to all snow as the low passes east. Another inch or two is
possible after the mix.

D) Zone D will not see much overall accumulation with up to 1? of sleet and
freezing rain. Sleet will start the main event before a prolonged period of
freezing rain occurs, especially in interior MA back through the Catskills
and some high elevation spots just south of the NY border. Precipitation
will eventually go over to a cold rain for a period before a possible few
flurries of snow to end it.

E) This area of coastline in north of I-90 will likely start as a mix of
snow and sleet but easterly winds off the ocean should warm them up enough
to preclude any real accumulation. Rain is a threat here but wet snow could
bust this forecast across the Maine coastline. The best chance of
accumulating snows here will be after the low when the winds are coming in
from the interior and not the warm Atlantic. Snowfall will range anywhere
from up to 1? down near Boston to up to 6? across the furthest northeast
point of the Maine coastline.

-Scott
 

powderfreak

New member
SUNDAY MORNING THOUGHTS

Haven't seen Burlington's NWS Homepage look so nice in a while...
http://tinyurl.com/yl5c2b
And on that note, it looks like the Gray, ME NWS office is out to lunch and
I cannot figure out why they do not have winter storm watches up yet while
the Buffalo, Binghamton, Albany, and Burlington offices all have warnings up
already.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THIS MORNING:
Look for a general 1-3" today across the board, tapering off around 1pm
before the main storm moves in between 7am-10am tomorrow morning and
snowfall rates will quickly pick up and most areas north of Glens
Falls-Rutland-Lebanon should be averaging 1"/hr from late morning through
the afternoon with mod/light snowfall then persisting from 4pm-1am across
the Green Mountain spine. During the day tomorrow, I agree with the NWS
forecast of 4-8 falling by evening and then another 1-3" most lower
elevation spots but high res models indicate upslope/orographic snowfall
could add another 2-4" south of I-89 and 3-5" north of I-89 tomorrow night.

Some Discussion:
Our favorite government agency is calling for 8-10" of snow with "higher
amounts over the higher terrain." Yesterday's 12z NAM snowfall forecast was
likely over-done but was showing 6-10" in the greater Burlington area with a
bullseye of 15-18" along the Green Mountain Spine running from Sugarbush to
Jay Peak...with another area of that same maximum range in the vicinity of
Sugarloaf, ME. And after looking over last night's model data, total
precipitation amounts have steadily been increasing over northern Vermont
such as this sequence for Burlington (all snow):
NAM
18z...0.72" L.E.
00z...0.80" L.E.
06z...0.92" L.E.
GFS
18z...0.60" L.E.
00z...0.75" L.E.
06z...0.85" L.E.

One can see a trend here and now, as we are closing in, the American models
are amazingly close with total precip amounts per the BTV data and both show
all snow north of I-89 for 100% of the event.

Taken verbatim, at medium density or a 10:1 ratio that's 9" of snow in the
valley. The warm layer aloft between 5,000ft and 9,000ft only gets to -4C
at BTV with best lift in the atmosphere occurring with temps between -10C to
-15C which is close to where you want it for dendrite flakes. My only
concern is the -4C layer and I'm having trouble figuring out what our main
snowflake is going to be. The -4 is usually needles but higher up in the
clouds this thing should be producing some big dendrites. especially for the
last third of the storm as deeper cold air replaces the warm layer and when
liquid amounts might not be too great but we go from seeing a 12:1 ratio to
a 20< to 1 ratio fluff on Monday evening with wrap around.

With all this said, I think it would be best to say with a 12:1 ratio for
3/4ths of this event and then the final 1/4th bump ratios up to 20/25 to
1...additionally, I like the trend for more precip, especially snow now that
looks to become heavy at times on Monday from 7am-7pm, but will go with
probably around .6" L.E. in the CPV yielding the same 8-10" as the NWS
forecast...BUT in the MTNS...

The two main mountain data points the models extract data for are the
Morrisville-Stowe Airport and Montpelier-Barre Airport...the GFS and NAM
have both of those locations with 1.0-1.3" of L.E. which is a very healthy
snowfall at even 10 or 12 to 1 ratios. Looking into the mountains, I've got
one bullseye showing up right over the Sugarbush/MRG area at 1.52" predicted
and the entire Green Mountain spine from Addison County to the Canadian
border comes in at >1.25" L.E. when all is said and done; thus the 15-18"
some models predicted yesterday. Without seeing the true storm yet, I'm
going to stick with 6-12" as a forecast from Killington to Jay Peak and
across all of the Adirondacks, northern half of NH, and up through
Sugarloaf. However, if the latest multiple model runs are correct, those
numbers would need to be bumped upwards.

I would greatly appreciate any running snowfall totals if you are not out
skiing in the next two days...

-Scott


NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-
CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...
STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...
LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...
GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...
ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...
MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...
ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
424 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
EST TUESDAY...FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

AFTER LIGHT SNOW TODAY...ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT BEGINNING
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY SNOW...SOME SLEET MAY
BRIEFLY MIX WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
TO SNOW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WHEN 4 TO
8 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8
TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO TO
http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.
 

sven

New member
Looking too good to not take a chance and see what kind of snowfall ends up materializing. Seems like I've got a good opportunity to break out the Mantra's finally.... who's going to be out tomorrow? I think Stowe seems like a solid bet for me....
 

riverc0il

New member
3" in Lyndonville today up on the hill. Not powder but not wet either, that in between snow. We don't want powder from this storm any ways (well, a little pow at the tail end would be great for those going out on Tuesday, which I think is where Scott was going with those ratios). It was really nice watching snow flakes fall all morning into the afternoon. Finally VT is looking like it should in mid-January.
 

sven

New member
Hey guys, Scott, whoever else might be at Stowe tomorrow and Tuesday. If any of you are out and spot me come by and say hello. I'll be wearing gray pants and a blue or black jacket and ill be on the red volkl mantras (unless something awful goes wrong with the weather and then I'll be on my 7/24 pro's :wink: ) Cheers

Sven
 

Ryan

New member
NW PA
5 miles south of I-90 at 1310ft elevation

31 Degrees
Freezing rain


This sucks
Should settle in with some lake effect by Tuesday however here that Scott posted http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml on Day 2 (Tuesday) there is a 40% 12+inch bullseye on top of good Ol Wilderness Lodge and Peek 'n Peak. Man I hope they are right. Thanks for the link by the way, it is a great one.
 

rascal

New member
FYI- downtown burlington transitioned from snow to sleet about 2 hours ago, and to freezing rain about a half hour ago.

I'll be at Stowe tomorrow, let's hope they continue with snow all day.
 

Patrick

Active member
rascal":oy7rt0d2 said:
FYI- downtown burlington transitioned from snow to sleet about 2 hours ago, and to freezing rain about a half hour ago.

I'll be at Stowe tomorrow, let's hope they continue with snow all day.

Only snow in Ottawa, probably 6 inches on the ground, however there isn't any big mountains around here. :roll:

I would love to be able to go a few hours out of town tomorrow. :p
 

riverc0il

New member
another 3-4 inches today at the top of the hill in lyndonville followed by NCP that made a nice crust. the snow that fell here is excellent base building stuff, though burke is claiming "powder." but then again, burke is saying 8" which is double what we got at the college, so maybe colder air made for lighter and fluffier flakes. i am debating a dawn patrol tomorrow, will report back tomorrow evening if i give it a go.
 
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