Jay Peak Summit: Most Snow in the Lower 48 in 2014-15???

[Admin]

Regarding those Jay Peak numbers, I simply don't buy that summit figure. I patrolled there for 10 years. That summit is the rockiest, most windswept place on the planet, save for perhaps the Mt. Washington Observatory. There is absolutely no reasonable way to measure snowfall at that altitude at Jay Peak. Combine that with the fact that it barely rained throughout the entire season, and there is no reasonable explanation for the substantial discrepancy between the base figure and the summit figure. I would be reasonably confident that the base figure is a reasonable approximation for the snowfall throughout the ski area's entire vertical drop.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Angry Admin

 

[Admin]

Angry Admin

Not angry, just calling

 

[Tony Crocker]

substantial discrepancy between the base figure and the summit figure.

I was surprised by that 57% ratio as the long term relationship is 80%.

I would be reasonably confident that the base figure [at Jay Peak] is a reasonable approximation for the snowfall throughout the ski area's entire vertical drop.

Scott Braaten measured 290 inches at Stowe's 3,014 foot snow plot, which leads me to believe 294 is a reasonable number for Jay. There has been ongoing local controversy about Jay's upper reporting since Conrad Klefos left around 2000. However that upper number is measured (or made up), averaging it with the lower number seems to fit in with the 1982-1999 data provided by Conrad Klefos.

 

[Admin]

The fact is that Jay's summit is a windswept point of almost solid bedrock right at tree line on an already notoriously windy mountain. Jay officials have a hard enough time keeping any snow there at all, as evidenced by the snow fencing lining the upper Vermonter and Northway trails, the two runs that leave the Sky Haus tram top station. Without that fencing, snow would be blown straight to Canada. Instead, that fencing creates drifts that may be redistributed and groomed by snowcat to cover those two trails. I personally can't imagine how anyone could accurately measure snowfall in that kind of environment. And with such a cold, rain-free winter, why in the world would there be such a discrepancy between the upper mountain and lower mountain figures? All of this leads me to suspect that the upper mountain snowfall figure is complete fantasy.

Scott Braaten measured 290 inches at Stowe's 3,014 foot snow plot, which leads me to believe 294 is a reasonable number for Jay.

Not necessarily. Even in a typical year, there can be a marked difference between the two mountains that are separated by an hour's drive. However, this year many of the big snow events tracked south as coastal storms, evidenced by the record snow that fell in places like Boston. These coastal storms aren't Jay's calling card -- in fact, "Nor'easters" generally deliver bigger snow to places further south along the Green Mountain spine and much closer to the ocean, like Killington. Jay is simply too far from the Atlantic and separated from that giant bathtub by too many mountains. Where Jay excels is on Alberta Clipper-type storms that come in from the northwest. The first mountain of any substantial elevation that those storms hit is Jay, resulting in orographic lift that produces substantial snowfall in a similar way to how Targhee squeezes moisture from storms that roll in through the Snake River Valley of Idaho. It's no coincidence that Jay fans refer to the "Jay Cloud" and Grand Targhee is also known as "Grand Foggy."

 

[Marc_C]

The fact is that Jay's summit is a windswept point of almost solid bedrock right at tree line on an already notoriously windy mountain. Jay officials have a hard enough time keeping any snow there at all, as evidenced by the snow fencing lining the upper Vermonter and Northway trails, the two runs that leave the Sky Haus tram top station. Without that fencing, snow would be blown straight to Canada. Instead, that fencing creates drifts that may be redistributed and groomed by snowcat to cover those two trails. I personally can't imagine how anyone could accurately measure snowfall in that kind of environment. And with such a cold, rain-free winter, why in the world would there be such a discrepancy between the upper mountain and lower mountain figures? All of this leads me to suspect that the upper mountain snowfall figure is complete fantasy.

Scott Braaten measured 290 inches at Stowe's 3,014 foot snow plot, which leads me to believe 294 is a reasonable number for Jay.

Not necessarily. Even in a typical year, there can be a marked difference between the two mountains that are separated by an hour's drive. However, this year many of the big snow events tracked south as coastal storms, evidenced by the record snow that fell in places like Boston. These coastal storms aren't Jay's calling card -- in fact, "Nor'easters" generally deliver bigger snow to places further south along the Green Mountain spine and much closer to the ocean, like Killington. Jay is simply too far from the Atlantic and separated from that giant bathtub by too many mountains. Where Jay excels is on Alberta Clipper-type storms that come in from the northwest. The first mountain of any substantial elevation that those storms hit is Jay, resulting in orographic lift that produces substantial snowfall in a similar way to how Targhee squeezes moisture from storms that roll in through the Snake River Valley of Idaho. It's no coincidence that Jay fans refer to the "Jay Cloud" and Grand Targhee is also known as "Grand Foggy."

But Tony has numbers and data and spreadsheets and graphs. Surely you realize all that trumps actual experience on the hill in question! :stir:

 

[Tony Crocker]

Killington was farther below average (80%) than Jay and Stowe were (90%). Cannon was the only place I track close enough to the Atlantic to get a bump (131%) from this year's weather pattern.

 

[Admin]

Killington was farther below average (80%) than Jay and Stowe were (90%). Cannon was the only place I track close enough to the Atlantic to get a bump (131%) from this year's weather pattern.

Which has absolutely nothing to do with my point that Jay's summit number is other than my anecdotal comment that Killington often does better from coastal events.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Actually neither of us knows where Jay's press release snow number comes from. It could be from some well sheltered leeward tree stash or it could be a SWAG. Admin and I agree that it's not representative of ski terrain as a whole. In that respect it's similar to Alyeska and Jackson, where legitimate snow plots are located in far snowier locations than most of the ski terrain.

As far as the coastal bias of 2014-15 storms go, no Vermont areas, even Okemo and Stratton, were close enough to the coast to be pushed above average in snowfall.

 

[Admin]

Actually neither of us knows where Jay's press release snow number comes from. It could be from some well sheltered leeward tree stash or it could be a SWAG.

I personally believe that given the base area figure, it comes from a wet dream in the marketing department.

 

[Harvey]

OK not really following this but Admin are you saying that you don't believe Jay gets more at the top than at the base?

I do think it's reasonable to assume that the two mountains are often within 10% of each other.

 

[Admin]

OK not really following this but Admin are you saying that you don't believe Jay gets more at the top than at the base? .

I do. But in a season where it hardly ever rained I don't believe that it's 43% more. And I also don't believe that it's possible to accurately measure at the summit of that particular mountain.

 

[Admin]

OK not really following this but Admin are you saying that you don't believe Jay gets more at the top than at the base? .

I do. But in a season where it hardly ever rained I don't believe that it's 43% more. And I also don't believe that it's possible to accurately measure at the summit of that particular mountain.

 

[Harvey]

Wouldn't that affect/equalize base depth more than the amount that fell?

 

[Admin]

Wouldn't that affect/equalize base depth more than the amount that fell?

That's kind of my point, actually, even though no one here is discussing base depths. If the only historical measuring point is at the base, and the long term correlation of that figure to this submit figure is 80%, and given that this year those two figures should've been more closely correlated, not less, it casts doubt on the credibility of the summit figure.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Admin's having a tough time coming to terms with the fact that there's a new snow sheriff in town -- with a water park at its base. :-D

 

[Admin]

Admin's having a tough time coming to terms with the fact that there's a new snow sheriff in town -- with a water park at its base. :-D

Not at all. I have an intense love for that mountain. I'd just like to see that figure supported by evidence that it was obtained by reliable, standardized measuring methods and not by sticking a yard stick into a snow drift where it blew up alongside the Northway snow fence.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Sounds like the perfect topic for a hard-hitting investigative piece co-authored by Admin and Tony, resulting in the ski journalism equivalent of a Pulitzer!

 

[Tony Crocker]

We're not talking here about a snow plot with a white board that was cleaned off at specified intervals throughout the day.

What Jay should have done is to place such a device in some upper mountain leeward tree stash, the same technique Jackson and Breckenridge used to bump up their marketing quotes but have the data to back it up. I realize that my use of the term "top of the mountain" set admin off given his personal knowledge of the place. The Jackson and Breck sites aren't top of the mountain either, yet both manage to report 25% more snow that the prior long term mid-mountain sites. That happens to be the long term difference between Jay "upper" and "lower" also.

As noted before neither admin nor I have clue whether there actually is a new snow plot at Jay since the 1990's. I've e-mailed JSpin to contribute his 2 cents to this thread. I have no idea if JSpin cares about this particular controversy, but if he does he's surely the right person to get to the bottom of it.

it's by no means an additional 43%. No way, no how.

Wind can deposit as well as strip snow. And we all know Jay is a windy place. It may not speak well to where the snow plots are located, but it's certainly possible wind reduced snow at one location and increased it at another. I also slightly overstated the long term lower-to-upper ratio for Jay, which is 76%. The 57% this year is the record low, but it was 62% in 2009-10 and 65% in 2005-06.

Sounds like the perfect topic for a hard-hitting investigative piece co-authored by Admin and Tony, resulting in the ski journalism equivalent of a Pulitzer!

I think we should put JSpin and/or powderfreak on this. They got to the bottom of the Mansfield Stake undercounting mystery.

Here's Vermont snowfall south-to-north for 2014-15:
Stratton 156, 82%
Okemo 129, 76%
Killington 197, 81%
Sugarbush 249, 93%
Mansfield Stake 184, 82%
Stowe 290, 93%
Smuggs 294, 91%
Jay 294, 90%
There's nothing particularly out of line in that list above, and it shows that northern Vermont was actually a bit closer to long term average than southern Vermont.

I sent my annual "Who Got the Most Snow in North America" article to Fraser Wilkin over the weekend. It will be interesting to see if either of us get complaints about not using the upper figures from Jay or Alyeska. I'll refer any Jay complaints to admin. :lol:

 

[jamesdeluxe]

I would be reasonably confident that the base figure is a reasonable approximation for the snowfall throughout the ski area's entire vertical drop.

Admin, are you sticking with this assertion ^^ even though Tony seems comfortable with Jay's 294 inches alongside the other NVT mountains?

There's nothing particularly out of line in that list above, and it shows that northern Vermont was actually a bit closer to long term average than southern Vermont.