Moderate Snowstorm for portions of Northeast on Monday

P

powderfreak

New member
Very quick note on this for anyone planning anything for Presidents Day...

My zone for heaviest snowfall is from Buffalo to Binghamton to Albany to
Boston. I believe a 5-10" will stretch through this area with maxes in
the Catskills, Berkshires, and southern VT. Further north is up for grabs
and just how far south snowfall goes is in question as well. Models are
in agreement for the areas listed above. South, we have the NAM with 3-7"
even into northern Maryland and going up from there...but still has max
right along I90 in NY and MA. GFS is further north and would bring a 5-
10" snowfall to all of Vermont, the Adirondacks, and New Hampshire as well
as the I90 corridor from Syracuse to Boston.

I haven't had much time to look seriously at upper air dynamics and
snowfall rates, temps, etc today, but I just wanted to lay down some
starting amounts and I'll have a full post with timing, snowfall maxes,
rates, and more fun stuff tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if some
Winter Storm Watches go up around the BGM, ALB, or BOS areas tonight. Its
a close call, but I bet BOS goes with watches out of any of those NWS
offices.

-Scott
 
Area of Focus: Upstate NY, MA, VT, NH, SW ME.

A low pressure system will move into the upper Ohio River Valley and
possibly into extreme western New York State on Sunday night before a
secondary low forms off the southern New England coast on Monday. This
will bring a 12 to 18 hour snowfall event to the Northeast as moisture and
warm air advection moves into the region from SW to NE early Monday. Snow
will break out in the Catskills and Adirondacks between 1am and 5am on
Monday morning and spread into the Berkshires and Green Mountains between
5am and 9am on Monday morning. Snow will finally overspread all of NH and
southwest Maine by 12pm Monday evening.

There will be a heavy area of precipitation moving through southeastern NY
into western Mass with the strong warm air advection as the low pressure
system drives warm air up over the cold dome sitting over the northeast
right now. Models are indicating some strong vertical velocities and
isentropic lift with this leading edge of moisture. The set up makes me
believe we will see snow come down heavily between 7am and 1pm on Monday
from the Catskills into southern New England. After the initial burst of
snowfall, precipitation should taper off as the area gets dryslotted until
the coastal gets going which will then add to totals in interior Mass,
southern VT, and southern NH. Further north (Adirondacks, northern VT and
NH), a quick burst of snow is likely but not to the effect that is seen
further south and then a light, longer duration snowfall occurs.

I am watching for a potential inverted trough as well as a deformation
zone to set up which might enhance snowfall totals from Burlington and
southeast towards the New England coast. Once precipitation tapers off
down south, northern New England may get one more shot of snow as some
models indicate one more vort max crosses NNY and NVT. Although radar
might make it look like the snow is ending, northern New England should
get one last shot of snow on Monday evening with the vort max dynamics,
inverted trough, and high relative humidities. Also, channeling in the
Champlain Valley and Hudson River Valley could cause some increased
snowfall rates later on in the storm as winds switch around from SE to NNE
which should lead to convergence zone backing into the eastern Adirondacks
and Catskills.

Model QPF blend has the entire Northeast with over a quarter inch of
liquid and a large area that covers most of NY, VT, NY, and MA with around
a half inch of liquid. Some isolated spots could see up to three quarters
of an inch of liquid equivalent.

General Snowfall amounts:
Entire northeast is under 3-6? zone for starters except coastal sections.
5-9? zone runs straight through central NY across to interior northeastern
MA and includes portions of the southern Adirondacks, northern Catskills,
southern Greens, Berkshires, as well as the Syracuse, Binghamton, Albany,
Worcester, and Concord metro areas.

Mountain Snowfall amounts:
Catskills??6-9? (south to north)
Adirondacks?..4-8? (north to south)
Berkshires?..6-9?
Southern Greens (Rutland southward)?..6-9?
Northern Greens (North of Rutland)?.4-7?
Southern half of NH (Lebanon to Conway south)?.5-9?
Northern half of NH (Lebanon to Conway north)?.4-7?
Southwestern Maine (Sunday River/Sugarloaf area)...4-7"

Pretty uniform snowfall amounts. It should be a nice moderate sized
snowfall. So, basically, looking for a general 4-8? snowfall on Monday
with some locally lower amounts and locally higher. Low end amounts would
be most common in the Saint Lawrence River Valley, northern Connecticut
River Valley, and northern Champlain Valley.

This is the forecast that I will critique myself from, but if there are
any large scale changes, I will bring those to the table to notify you.

-Scott
 
I live on Cape Cod. It is snowing out now. I should have enough to go touring and perhaps do a few tele-turns on a nearby hill. I haven't gone over the Canal since ML King day, but I have skied or snowshoed at least three out of four days since then.
 
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