Patrick
Well-known member
Mont St-Sauveur : November 26, 2011 – Back to our roots and zits!!!
http://madpatski.wordpress.com/2011/12/ ... -and-zits/
http://madpatski.wordpress.com/2011/12/ ... -and-zits/
Mont St-Sauveur QC: Nov 26, 2011 – Roots and Zits!!!
- Thread starter Patrick
- Start date
I noted on their blog that Patrick helped the http://ski710.blogspot.com/ guys find night skiing at Mt. St. Bruno when MSS night skiing was closed. It is ironic that North America provided perhaps the most marginal ski experience of the 7 continents for them. However, their trip was planned enough in advance that the best logistics to get it done in 10 days was to land at 6PM at an international airport close to night skiing, thus Montreal. Doing it in 10 days vs. 11 obviously had higher priority than quality for them.
No question in my mind that this day at MSS was done only for streak purposes. Of course the same can be said for my August-October Mammoth trips, though those were also AT practice for Antarctica. Those 3 Mammoth days were also somewhat higher quality of skiing. I would not have done them if I were still working and had to use vacation time for them. If my streak continues I can see myself sucked into days like Patrick's at Mt. High to keep November going sometime.
No question in my mind that this day at MSS was done only for streak purposes. Of course the same can be said for my August-October Mammoth trips, though those were also AT practice for Antarctica. Those 3 Mammoth days were also somewhat higher quality of skiing. I would not have done them if I were still working and had to use vacation time for them. If my streak continues I can see myself sucked into days like Patrick's at Mt. High to keep November going sometime.
Patrick
Well-known member
You've traveled enough to know that your gear is probably going to get there with you, but it's not 100% thing. One delay and missed flight for their gear and it would have been real complicated, especially when you consider the Asia (Dubai), Europe (Zermatt), Africa (in the Atlas in Morrocco) and NA (Montreal) in 4 days. I'm not even counting the transfer between airport and snow.Tony Crocker":399p9coo said:
Tony Crocker":399p9coo said:
As I mentioned in my blog, this fall is another real pathetic one. Conditions for this weekend aren't going to be improved from two weekends ago. MSS still has 2 runs open and only Fortune is open. I might actually return skiing. It might be considered streak related, but its almost get out of the house and do something else related.
Conditions were fairly better than what could have been expected as the surfaces were soft and spring like. Not necessarily good for those racers wanting to ski on ice, but good nonetheless. I was bored, I've skied too many small vertical yoyoing in the last year to appreciate it. Skiing 5 days during the Christmas week at Edelweiss is going to be brutal, I guess I'm spoiled and missing the wonderlust.
My daughter's ski team went out last weekend at MSS, however my youngest was playing in her first ensemble concert. Not sure if I'll go this weekend. Right now I'm at 1/3 not skiing, 1/3 MSS with the team and 1/3 elsewhere. MSA is only at 2 runs too. WF, not much. Vermont? I need to get to return to MTL again soon, but ... Pretty pathetic all over the place.
edit: in term of streak and quality of skiing. I went for the best terrain available within a 3.5/4 hour radius although shorter than WF and Tremblant with longer, but flatter runs (2, not sure at WF, but not much in term of run (not added part of trails). At it was free with my pass. I'm afraid that the skiing I did at MSS is going way better than Edelweiss until they get Zoomer open, I believe that was after New Year last year and then it would be similar to that November experience. Yeah, you're right ... its going to suck for me (I'm spoiled of the skiing I've done over the years).
This one I understand. Far better than paying through the nose to battle crowds and mediocre conditions at some destination resort during "zoo week" in what is shaping up to be a slow starting season. Save the $ and vacation time for QUALITY during Ontario spring break. :stir:Patrick":1t9cjr4l said:
Patrick
Well-known member
Tony Crocker":3rbnlym0 said:
Looks like Edelweiss is opening tomorrow as I'm seeing a bunch of email on the club. Nothing but Easy Street (of course). Checked out WF...only 1 long run top to bottom with the gondola. MSS is probably the best bet again this weekend, but no longer free (50% off now due to E opening).
The way its going, I'm saving up for 2013... :shock:
Patrick
Well-known member
As we are talking about streaks, pathetic novembers, here is the recap post I did for November (also copied all of previous November TR) on the Ski Mad World blog.
November!!! No snowember – snowember: a strange kind of love
http://madpatski.wordpress.com/2011/11/23/november/
November!!! No snowember – snowember: a strange kind of love
http://madpatski.wordpress.com/2011/11/23/november/
November skiing has never been reliable anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere. The occasional seasons you get and early dump and it's good, I view that as a bonus, icing on the cake. November skiing in general exists because of snowmaking, so I suppose it can be viewed as reliable for keeping a streak going, but in terms of quality, no. I had 18 November ski days lifetime before the this year, and of course the added 7 in the far south in 2011 have no relevance to this discussion. That November quantity of skiing is similar for me to June or July.
At the most reliable places, Targhee, LCC, Whistler etc. Dec. 15 is about the median date that skiing gets good with enough of a base to stay that way. Thus that's the point at which advanced booked trips become viable IMHO. There's a lot of places where that median date is well beyond Christmas week.
The referenced article, "Climate change will wipe out Quebec skiing," is complete
. JSpin analyzed this issue a while back, concluded the typical New England areas would lose 3-5 days a season of snowmaking (in line with my seat-of-the-pants guess) with an ongoing temperature rise similar to that of the 1980's and 1990's. I do not yet see a trend of lower snowfall due to more rain/less snow in New England/Quebec as we do at the Whistler base and presumably similar Euro base areas thousands of feet lower than most of their ski terrain. Those 3-5 days are more likely to hit the shoulder seasons, so maybe November openings get pushed back a week, though I suspect snowmaking technology improvements in the past 30 years offset that.
At the most reliable places, Targhee, LCC, Whistler etc. Dec. 15 is about the median date that skiing gets good with enough of a base to stay that way. Thus that's the point at which advanced booked trips become viable IMHO. There's a lot of places where that median date is well beyond Christmas week.
The referenced article, "Climate change will wipe out Quebec skiing," is complete
. JSpin analyzed this issue a while back, concluded the typical New England areas would lose 3-5 days a season of snowmaking (in line with my seat-of-the-pants guess) with an ongoing temperature rise similar to that of the 1980's and 1990's. I do not yet see a trend of lower snowfall due to more rain/less snow in New England/Quebec as we do at the Whistler base and presumably similar Euro base areas thousands of feet lower than most of their ski terrain. Those 3-5 days are more likely to hit the shoulder seasons, so maybe November openings get pushed back a week, though I suspect snowmaking technology improvements in the past 30 years offset that.
Patrick
Well-known member
Tony Crocker":1t2ql6ld said:The referenced article, "Climate change will wipe out Quebec skiing," is complete
I had Bhawan Singh as a prof back in Winter 1986. A close friend started a Master degree with him. I knew a few others that did MSc or PhD with him. What he was saying back then is pretty much bang on 25 years, including potential bigger winter snow fall, precipitation and warmer temps. Tony, it's easy to look at the number and see no evidence from it. I know a 40 years thread isn't necessarily statistically significant, but November skiing in Quebec was a sure silence of the start of the ski season for a majority of ski areas in Quebec when I was a kid. The skiing the last few seasons have been of a pathetic nature, but forget about skiing, just pre-December snow. Today, December 10 in Ottawa, there isn't any snow on the ground. As a kid, the first snow fall (with accumulation) of the year, year after year was prior to Halloween. When was the first snow fall this year, November 23 and it melted in the next 24-36 hours. Its easy to talk about Southern Quebec climate from Southern California. If you lived here over the last 40-45 years you would notice that Falls are much warmer and the Winter is much shorter, period. Forget about the ski areas stat and snow accumulation.
Check what is open this weekend in Quebec. Try to find some historical data per season for the last 20-30-40 seasons.
Tony Crocker":1t2ql6ld said:
Look back to the 1970, 1980 (and their was 1-2 real bad years snow wise) and they were much colder than the past fw years. Its hard to make snow when temps are +10c above the normal temps like they generally been the last few months. Night time low for this week are -to -4 range for Ottawa, average is -11c.
Here is a quick translation of some points I made on ZSki
Some are talking about how 1979-80 was worst, except temps were as warmed and ski areas didn't have the snowmaking capacity and technology we have now. Ski seasons in Quebec are getting shorter, no question about it.
Comparison of 1979-80 with 2011-12 at Montreal Airport.
November 1979: 6 days above 10c / Highs under freezing point: 0 / Lows under freezing point: 16 / 3,2cm /
November 2011: 16 days above 10c / Highs under freezing point 1 / Lows under freezing point: 12 / 8.2cm /
Novembre 1979: 7.2c Avg Hi / -1.2c Avg Lo / 3.5c Avg Temp
Novembre 2011: 9.8c Avg Hi / 0.7c Avg Lo / 5.3c Avg Temp
Snow fall comparison between 1979-80 and 2011-12 at Mansfield snow stake.
http://www.uvm.edu/~empact/data/gendate ... Depth&year[]=1979&year[]=2011&width=800&height=600&smooth=0&csv=0&totals=0
Killiington Opening?
October 10 1979 versus October 29 2011.
Remember I'm just comparing with what is regarded as a terrible year, yet so far 2011 has been warmer and a sample of specific data. I could give data from various weather station and give you a yearly breakdown, but I would never get my TR Summer TRs up and running. :stir:
Presumably Patrick has heard of urban heat island effect. Ski areas, being in more rural locations, are in fact much more reliable places to monitor weather/climate changes than cities. L.A. winters are warmer too, with a dramatic decrease in the widespread fog episodes I remember growing up. Nonetheless there seems to be little change in mountain weather here or in the Sierra. The Mansfield Stake would be an excellent source to analyze temperature and rain vs. snow with their daily records. I have them back to 1982 but the first half of that is hard copy records I would have to unearth sometime.
Patrick
Well-known member
Tony Crocker":10se2la9 said:
Yes, I have...if the urban areas are getting biggest you cannot subtract that from the equation. How far as urban scrawl gain in LA in the last 30-40 years? Regardless, my memories are from Montreal and Ottawa. Even as a kid, Montreal was much bigger than what is Ottawa now. You can choose any weather station you want in Quebec or Eastern Ontario and compare the evolution of first frost, average temps in the different months from October to May (equivalent to a long ski season). What I suspect you'll see if warmer temps and later start in first snow and snow coverage...and earlier finish.
As i was reading the news, I saw this story on the newswire.
White Christmas probabilities by city - story from the Canadian Press
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/arts-a ... 77708.html
I've remove a few cities, but this tables is pretty slowing a thread that I've been noticing...although I was talking about first snow prior to Halloween or not.
There's not much dispute that the latter period was overall warmer than the prior period. Cites near sea level at Christmas are at marginal locations/time of year for snow cover and thus sensitive to small changes in climate, even without considering urban heat island effect.Patrick":i1gjs55x said:
Left unanswered are 2 key questions:
1) Does the above comparison of years represent a long term trend? Not really comparing previous time periods and at least in some question compared to recent years' leveling off.
2) The comparison of the above time periods in ski areas with higher and/or colder climates shows no trend in North America's snowfall/snowpack whatsoever. And that's not just my data. http://www.epicski.com/forum/newestpost/107721
So for Patrick's source to take a great leap and conclude that Quebec's ski areas are in imminent danger is vastly overreaching IMHO.
I will go along with Patrick on this one as with about 45 years of skiing in Quebec have noticed and recorded the shorter seasons . If you look at the season in Quebec from November 15 to April 15 we have already lost a month . The one or two trails that are currently open is where we should have been a month ago . Then you have the thaws that go on during the regular season to add to the fun which are also longer and more intense than in the past . It is unfortunate but this appears to be the current pattern . Eastern skiing always unpredictable has become even more unpredictable . Don't see this ski season turning around to January . Can't stand the WROD SKIING . Went out last week from something to do and bailed after a hour - bored to death .
Patrick
Well-known member
Anthony":2zakfmog said:
From No Snovember to Depressing December!!!
Not getting better, it was +8c and fog and raining at 7am this morning. Oh yeah, regular hi and lo are -4c / -12c. We are still on the WROD mode.
If I want this weather, I'd go to my in-laws in France. At least, they were 2-3 hours from the Alps.
MSS was up to 3 runs before this, but are closed today.
Edelweiss and Fortune...1 green run each.
Tremblant is counting 16 out of 92, but in reality its closer to 8 separate runs. Total snowfall since the start of the season: 16 inches.
Sutton is closed today: total snow ytd 17-21cm
MSA is at 6 runs on the North side
Massif: their 8 is more like 3.5 separate runs...25cm total including pre-season.
If your looking to make skiing plans to ski East for the Holidays (and I never say this...) Go West!!!
Western Canada is looking OK, though mostly from a big November, not so much this month. Lots of the western US is in WROD mode. I'm at Mammoth now and it would not be open at all if not for snowmaking.Anthony":236n7cod said:
J.Spin
New member
I do remember hearing something about this; do you have a link to the discussion? It could be my memory, but I’m thinking someone other than me did the analysis you are talking about. I say this because 1) I don’t know how I would even do an analysis like that, and 2) although I do recall reading something about that on the forum, my best recollection is not really putting much stock in it, which I think I would do if I went through the trouble to do the analysis. I’m just suspicious about my involvement because I’m not really keen on the whole climate modeling/climate change topic anyway. I’m not going to say that the studies in the field aren’t scientific, because they are. But as a scientist, it’s far removed from the type of work we do, where when one has hypotheses, they are physically tested in experiments with controls, and one gets a verified empirical result. We use computer modeling as well, and as great as it is, its value is far, far below doing the actual experiments (and we see this proven time and time again). So in the climate field where for so much of the work the only option is in silico modeling, and politics seem to play such a huge role, I’d say I’m very much “meh” to the whole thing. Anyway, let me know what you find, it’s possible I was involved somehow.Tony Crocker":2v01ov3u said:The referenced article, "Climate change will wipe out Quebec skiing," is complete
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5762&start=45
The comments I attributed to JSpin were partially his and partially powderfreak's. Mostly on page 4 of this Killington thread but it started on page 3. The formal analysis regarding reduction in snowmaking days is in the last post on page 4 by powderfreak.
The comments I attributed to JSpin were partially his and partially powderfreak's. Mostly on page 4 of this Killington thread but it started on page 3. The formal analysis regarding reduction in snowmaking days is in the last post on page 4 by powderfreak.
J.Spin
New member
OK, thanks for finding that Tony - I see that it was Powderfreak that made the final leap to the snowmaking days. That's the part I was curious about because I'm not sure how I would have gone about doing that. He's got the resort operations experience to make those kinds of estimates. I see that I did some calculations from temperature data, which is more what I would have expected. Powderfreak's text on his estimate is below:
powderfreak":17f2wmxn said:
Getting off topic from the original post (sorry about that) ,but you guys still optimistic for the season. So far look at the facts, 5" at the Mansfield Stake ,we all know that it is going to take a few feet of snow to turns things around and open up the good stuff. Best case scenario with a string off snowfalls, maybe mid January. Looking back at my records ,I go back to the 79/80 season for such a comparable slow start. Maybe just being too pessimistic
2001-02 started as slow as this in the Northeast and 2006-07 was close. The bottom line is that November is not reliable in the Northeast due to excessive rain often wiping out any base from early snows. Usually mid-December is the time that base depths and trail counts grow more consistently. But 3 similar starts in 11 years strikes me as "below average" more than extreme. The ~1/3 of normal snowfall in Vermont is more unusual IMHO.
Some of the western numbers are more extreme. California and Utah will have the driest Christmases since 1986-87 and I-70 Colorado the driest since 1999-2000. Using Patrick's method of weighting by skier visits, this is an exceptionally bad holiday season because the 3 highest skier visit regions (Northeast, California and Front Range Colorado) are the ones in the worst shape.
Some of the western numbers are more extreme. California and Utah will have the driest Christmases since 1986-87 and I-70 Colorado the driest since 1999-2000. Using Patrick's method of weighting by skier visits, this is an exceptionally bad holiday season because the 3 highest skier visit regions (Northeast, California and Front Range Colorado) are the ones in the worst shape.